Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
I come to bury ..guess who.. not to praise him.

An elongated High,
the like of which hath not been seen since Michaelmas.

Lensius
Wembirgh

On Tuesday, 4 March 2014 19:56:16 UTC, Len Wood wrote:
Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;

I come to bury ..guess who.. not to praise him.



An elongated High,

the like of which hath not been seen since Michaelmas.



Lensius

Wembirgh

Ah the elongated high as a Vehicle for spring weather. (Sorry, it's a bit obscure).

On Tuesday, March 4, 2014 7:56:16 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote:
Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;

I come to bury ..guess who.. not to praise him.



An elongated High,

the like of which hath not been seen since Michaelmas.



Lensius

Wembirgh

This 'forecast' seems to be correct at outcome with high pressure in charge.

That's 100% 'forecast' accuracy for me at this time frame.
;-()

It's so easy with the ensembles at your finger tips.

Len

Wembury, SW Devon

On Tuesday, 4 March 2014 19:56:16 UTC, Len Wood wrote:
Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;

I come to bury ..guess who.. not to praise him.



An elongated High,

the like of which hath not been seen since Michaelmas.



Lensius

Wembirgh

So its not a case of Hail Caesar then, how about showers?

I think that I can see what you're driving at Len, and I totally agree - I've been on the verge of posting something similar!

We all can interpret what the various models forecast, but we have to remember that the forecast comes from the model and not us. Without NWP there would be no discussion at all about whats happening at T+24 let alone T+240, and certainly no 'my' forecast - we would be totally lost and that applies to both the amateurs pontificating on this newsgroup right down to the professionals at the Metoffice.

Now, if we based our forecast on our own data or observations, we could say 'my' - just like William Foggit did in the 1970's by saying things like: the hazel was out before the ash that means rain, or the song thrush is sat on my anemometer and ****ting on the cups that means there'll be retrogression and cold NW'lys.

I don't mind people commenting on the various NWP models or what they're saying, but less of the 'my' and more of 'this is what the GFS model or the UKMO model' is suggesting - because without the model we would be totally blind beyond even 24 hours!

Apologies Len if I've misinterpreted what you were suggesting and hijacking your post but I at least got what I wanted of my chest**

On Friday, 21 March 2014 06:15:30 UTC, exmetman wrote:
I think that I can see what you're driving at Len, and I totally agree - I've been on the verge of posting something similar!



We all can interpret what the various models forecast, but we have to remember that the forecast comes from the model and not us. Without NWP there would be no discussion at all about whats happening at T+24 let alone T+240, and certainly no 'my' forecast - we would be totally lost and that applies to both the amateurs pontificating on this newsgroup right down to the professionals at the Metoffice.



Now, if we based our forecast on our own data or observations, we could say 'my' - just like William Foggit did in the 1970's by saying things like: the hazel was out before the ash that means rain, or the song thrush is sat on my anemometer and ****ting on the cups that means there'll be retrogression and cold NW'lys.



I don't mind people commenting on the various NWP models or what they're saying, but less of the 'my' and more of 'this is what the GFS model or the UKMO model' is suggesting - because without the model we would be totally blind beyond even 24 hours!

Absolutely spot on Bruce.

On Friday, March 21, 2014 6:15:30 AM UTC, exmetman wrote:
I think that I can see what you're driving at Len, and I totally agree - I've been on the verge of posting something similar!



We all can interpret what the various models forecast, but we have to remember that the forecast comes from the model and not us. Without NWP there would be no discussion at all about whats happening at T+24 let alone T+240, and certainly no 'my' forecast - we would be totally lost and that applies to both the amateurs pontificating on this newsgroup right down to the professionals at the Metoffice.



Now, if we based our forecast on our own data or observations, we could say 'my' - just like William Foggit did in the 1970's by saying things like: the hazel was out before the ash that means rain, or the song thrush is sat on my anemometer and ****ting on the cups that means there'll be retrogression and cold NW'lys.



I don't mind people commenting on the various NWP models or what they're saying, but less of the 'my' and more of 'this is what the GFS model or the UKMO model' is suggesting - because without the model we would be totally blind beyond even 24 hours!

Absolutely true and for me, you've hit upon the difference between commentary and forecast. What people don't do, because they simply don't know, to be fair, with any proven confidence, is to say with what confidence they have in interpreting the models at a given time.

Now that really would help.

Commentary is exactly that. Forecast implies an outcome which the forecaster expects at a given time. After all, after the news is a weather *forecast* and not a weather commentary and the professional forecaster/presenter, at a few days+, is not giving a forecast based on anything else except NWP output.

In article ,
exmetman writes:
We all can interpret what the various models forecast, but we
have to remember that the forecast comes from the model and not
us. Without NWP there would be no discussion at all about whats
happening at T+24 let alone T+240, and certainly no 'my' forecast -
we would be totally lost and that applies to both the amateurs
pontificating on this newsgroup right down to the professionals at
the Metoffice.
snip

I think that's something of an exaggeration. It's true for T+240, of
course, and largely true for T+120. But at T+24 there were forecasts
before NWP and mostly those by the MO were right. I've seen it said that
forecasts then for T+48 were correct about as often as those for T+120
are now.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Friday, March 21, 2014 6:18:56 AM UTC, exmetman wrote:
Apologies Len if I've misinterpreted what you were suggesting and hijacking your post but I at least got what I wanted of my chest**

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No need to apologise Bruce.
You certainly got my drift.

Len
Wembury

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