Looks like an interesting 30th birthday, for the 1987 Great Storm of
15/16 Oct, with TS/TD Ophelia taking the role , along the same track,
where's Michael Fish when you need him.
All the global met models agree she will at least get to Portugal.
This is the latest National Huricane Centre assessment


000
WTNT42 KNHC 100252
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

Ophelia's center is just south of a broad curved band of deep
convection. At synoptic time, the subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were both at 2.5, or 35 kt, while
the CIMSS SATCON was at 43 kt. Given the increasingly curved
structure of the bands during the last couple of hours, the initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, a bit higher than the previous advisory.

While the tropical storm is fighting some moderate vertical shear
currently, the global models suggest that this should lighten some
between now and about day 4 as Ophelia resides between the
mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies. Even though the system
will be traversing cool 26C SSTs, upper-tropospheric temperatures
likely will also be cool, allowing for deep convection to continue.
The mid-level moisture analyzed in the SHIPS guidance appears to be
somewhat dry, though the total precipitable water imagery shows
distinct moistening near the system during the last couple of days.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual intensification
through day 3, then slow weakening thereafter. This is close to a
blend of the LGEM statistical guidance and the HWRF dynamical model
and is slightly above that of the previous advisory.

The initial position has fairly small uncertainty as the
low-level center is along the southern edge of the deep
convection, as seen in the GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery.
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast at about 6 kt - somewhat
unexpectedly - this evening. Despite this, the model guidance
suggests that a ridge will soon build in strongly north of Ophelia
and force the tropical storm to the southeast and then south
during the next couple of days. Around day 3, Ophelia should get
kicked out toward the east-northeast by an approaching trough in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is north of
the previous forecast in the short term and east-northeast in the
long term, and is in between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and the previous forecast.

The initial tropical-storm-force wind radii was adjusted outward
based upon a 2137Z AMSU size analysis. The official size forecast
is based upon the RVCN consensus technique.

On 10/10/2017 08:28, N_Cook wrote:
Looks like an interesting 30th birthday, for the 1987 Great Storm of
15/16 Oct, with TS/TD Ophelia taking the role , along the same track,
where's Michael Fish when you need him.
All the global met models agree she will at least get to Portugal.
This is the latest National Huricane Centre assessment


000
WTNT42 KNHC 100252
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

Ophelia's center is just south of a broad curved band of deep
convection. At synoptic time, the subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were both at 2.5, or 35 kt, while
the CIMSS SATCON was at 43 kt. Given the increasingly curved
structure of the bands during the last couple of hours, the initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, a bit higher than the previous advisory.

While the tropical storm is fighting some moderate vertical shear
currently, the global models suggest that this should lighten some
between now and about day 4 as Ophelia resides between the
mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies. Even though the system
will be traversing cool 26C SSTs, upper-tropospheric temperatures
likely will also be cool, allowing for deep convection to continue.
The mid-level moisture analyzed in the SHIPS guidance appears to be
somewhat dry, though the total precipitable water imagery shows
distinct moistening near the system during the last couple of days.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual intensification
through day 3, then slow weakening thereafter. This is close to a
blend of the LGEM statistical guidance and the HWRF dynamical model
and is slightly above that of the previous advisory.

The initial position has fairly small uncertainty as the
low-level center is along the southern edge of the deep
convection, as seen in the GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery.
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast at about 6 kt - somewhat
unexpectedly - this evening. Despite this, the model guidance
suggests that a ridge will soon build in strongly north of Ophelia
and force the tropical storm to the southeast and then south
during the next couple of days. Around day 3, Ophelia should get
kicked out toward the east-northeast by an approaching trough in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is north of
the previous forecast in the short term and east-northeast in the
long term, and is in between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and the previous forecast.

The initial tropical-storm-force wind radii was adjusted outward
based upon a 2137Z AMSU size analysis. The official size forecast
is based upon the RVCN consensus technique.

So NHC has it up to a huricane tomorrow and
96H 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
So 75mph to within 10 degrees lat and long of the UK.
GFS has sustained 65mph gusting to over 90mph winds for the Channel
Approaches, oo-er.

SNIP

So NHC has it up to a huricane tomorrow and
96H 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
So 75mph to within 10 degrees lat and long of the UK.
GFS has sustained 65mph gusting to over 90mph winds for the Channel
Approaches, oo-er.

I'm beginning to think your latest dire warning might be onto something this time, if only for Cornwall & western Ireland (going by GFS & ECMWF) .

I'm not sure that 90mph gusts in the SW approaches are that rare, there were certainly a few 90mph gusts at Gwennap Head when I lived on the cliff top at Sennen (Talking of which I've just come across this https://geographic.org/global_weathe...060_99999.html though the decimal points are in the wrong place ) Certainly 80mph gusts at JCs Lands End site are far from rare, and that would indicate 90mph over the open sea.

THowever there is a brief period of very big waves forecast, in the 25-30' range at Sevenstones with a 15sec period. Certainly big but unexceptional, and with a low degree of certainty.

Time will tell.

Graham
Penzance

On 11/10/2017 09:11, Graham Easterling wrote:
SNIP

So NHC has it up to a huricane tomorrow and
96H 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
So 75mph to within 10 degrees lat and long of the UK.
GFS has sustained 65mph gusting to over 90mph winds for the Channel
Approaches, oo-er.

I'm beginning to think your latest dire warning might be onto something this time, if only for Cornwall & western Ireland (going by GFS & ECMWF) .

I'm not sure that 90mph gusts in the SW approaches are that rare, there were certainly a few 90mph gusts at Gwennap Head when I lived on the cliff top at Sennen (Talking of which I've just come across this https://geographic.org/global_weathe...060_99999.html though the decimal points are in the wrong place ) Certainly 80mph gusts at JCs Lands End site are far from rare, and that would indicate 90mph over the open sea.

THowever there is a brief period of very big waves forecast, in the 25-30' range at Sevenstones with a 15sec period. Certainly big but unexceptional, and with a low degree of certainty.

Time will tell.

Graham
Penzance


Strange to see the Daily Excess under-playing Hurricane Ophelia. They
have some weird input to their WWW weather section, saying it is going
overland at Portugal. Any old bod on usw could do better than whoever it
is on their deask.
All the global met models, currently have it going through Biscay and
centre going just to the west of Ireland.
As a large change from the concensus yesterday, I wonder what the 30th
anniversary of the 1987 Great Felling will have for mainland UK

How come nothing in the proper media about this looming hurricane ?
or at least hurricane force winds
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...?cone#contents
They must have a long memory
"a woman rang the BBC and said she had heard that there was a
hurricane on the way. Well if you are watching, don't worry there isn't"

On 11/10/17 14:35, N_Cook wrote:
How come nothing in the proper media about this looming hurricane ?
or at least hurricane force winds

Perhaps because the UK will miss the strong winds? Strong winds from
Ophelia are forecast to graze Eire on Monday but the strongest winds
won't hit UK until Tuesday and Wednesday when the decaying Ophelia will
be near Iceland.



--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 8:28:22 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Looks like an interesting 30th birthday, for the 1987 Great Storm of
15/16 Oct, with TS/TD Ophelia taking the role , along the same track,
where's Michael Fish when you need him.

There is something about this date and deep depressions - I found something similar happened in 1886. http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2rt

Ophelia now a category 3 hurricane!


000
WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

On Saturday, October 14, 2017 at 5:24:19 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
Ophelia now a category 3 hurricane!


000
WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

It's the probable sea conditions which are giving more than a little cause for concern here.

50' swell's in winter can occur to the west of Ireland, but this time seems set to occur between the south coast of Eire, and Cornwall on Monday. In fact the the maximum swells associated with Ophelia are forecast to occur not that far west of Scilly. Also, the period (& therefore power) increases as the swell approaches Cornwall. Now 30' swell forecast to Sennen, 24 hours ago it was 22' This is now becoming exceptional (at least the forecast is - it hasn't happened yet). https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

A F8 offshore (SSW wind in the Cove (which faces north) should save it from an excessive surge. Could be very interesting in SW facing Porthleven.

The saving grace is that it's not Spring tides.

Graham
Penzance

On 14/10/2017 18:50, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Saturday, October 14, 2017 at 5:24:19 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
Ophelia now a category 3 hurricane!


000
WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

It's the probable sea conditions which are giving more than a little cause for concern here.

50' swell's in winter can occur to the west of Ireland, but this time seems set to occur between the south coast of Eire, and Cornwall on Monday. In fact the the maximum swells associated with Ophelia are forecast to occur not that far west of Scilly. Also, the period (& therefore power) increases as the swell approaches Cornwall. Now 30' swell forecast to Sennen, 24 hours ago it was 22' This is now becoming exceptional (at least the forecast is - it hasn't happened yet). https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

A F8 offshore (SSW wind in the Cove (which faces north) should save it from an excessive surge. Could be very interesting in SW facing Porthleven.

The saving grace is that it's not Spring tides.

Graham
Penzance


Although all global models and the NHC agree on targetting
CastletownBere, I rely on the GFS isotachs. The when and where it is
placing the baroclinic wind enhancement is over the place .
Makes it impossible to say when and how much surge for the English
Channel. I suspect NTSLF surge predictor will be also unreliable.