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Old October 11th 17, 04:02 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

In message , Graham P Davis
writes
On 11/10/17 14:35, N_Cook wrote:
How come nothing in the proper media about this looming hurricane ?
or at least hurricane force winds


Perhaps because the UK will miss the strong winds? Strong winds from
Ophelia are forecast to graze Eire on Monday but the strongest winds
won't hit UK until Tuesday and Wednesday when the decaying Ophelia will
be near Iceland.


The latest MO forecast for the 6-30 day period begins:

"There is a large amount of uncertainty in this forecast, and the
details may change over the coming days. Early next week, some wet and
very windy weather may affect the UK, with a risk of gales or possibly
storm-force winds in the west."
--
John Hall
"Three o'clock is always too late or too early
for anything you want to do."
Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)

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Old October 11th 17, 04:39 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 2:59:31 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 11/10/17 14:35, N_Cook wrote:
How come nothing in the proper media about this looming hurricane ?
or at least hurricane force winds


Perhaps because the UK will miss the strong winds? Strong winds from
Ophelia are forecast to graze Eire on Monday but the strongest winds
won't hit UK until Tuesday and Wednesday when the decaying Ophelia will
be near Iceland.



--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]


The Atlantic coast of Eire could take a real hammering from the sea, even if the strongest winds are offshore.

Take a look at http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell and run it through Mon/Tues. A fair variation run to run, but they'll get a very big sea unless the forecasts are way off.

Could be a brilliant surfing wave for France & Cornwall, far enough away for the swell to have cleaned up, gained wavelength, all without loosing too much height. (Where the winds offshore)

Lovely clearance here late afternoon, shame it'll be dark soon http://www.sennen-cove.com/harbourcam.htm

Graham
Penzance
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Old October 11th 17, 05:33 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

On 11/10/2017 17:02, John Hall wrote:
In message , Graham P Davis
writes
On 11/10/17 14:35, N_Cook wrote:
How come nothing in the proper media about this looming hurricane ?
or at least hurricane force winds


Perhaps because the UK will miss the strong winds? Strong winds from
Ophelia are forecast to graze Eire on Monday but the strongest winds
won't hit UK until Tuesday and Wednesday when the decaying Ophelia
will be near Iceland.


The latest MO forecast for the 6-30 day period begins:

"There is a large amount of uncertainty in this forecast, and the
details may change over the coming days. Early next week, some wet and
very windy weather may affect the UK, with a risk of gales or possibly
storm-force winds in the west."


That statement is so bland it could be almost any week of October.
THis is the only proper UK advisory I've seen
http://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-...rricane-610230
Complete with correct explanation of cat1, for uk general public, that
might imply , the most serious, as the yanks tend to do these things
uside-down, followed the new England exam gradings for some weird reason.
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Old October 11th 17, 05:54 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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GFS 11 Oct, 12Z run for 120hrs, has an impressive eye in the isotchs and
963mB central pressure, 50 miles SW of Castletownbere, Eire.


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Old October 11th 17, 06:45 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

In message , N_Cook
writes
THis is the only proper UK advisory I've seen
http://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-...helia-upgraded
-hurricane-610230
Complete with correct explanation of cat1, for uk general public, that
might imply , the most serious, as the yanks tend to do these things
uside-down, followed the new England exam gradings for some weird reason.


I've no idea who Devon Live are - a local radio station? - but that page
is quite impressive.
--
John Hall
"Three o'clock is always too late or too early
for anything you want to do."
Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)


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Old October 11th 17, 07:03 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 5:39:05 PM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 2:59:31 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 11/10/17 14:35, N_Cook wrote:
How come nothing in the proper media about this looming hurricane ?
or at least hurricane force winds


Perhaps because the UK will miss the strong winds? Strong winds from
Ophelia are forecast to graze Eire on Monday but the strongest winds
won't hit UK until Tuesday and Wednesday when the decaying Ophelia will
be near Iceland.



--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]


The Atlantic coast of Eire could take a real hammering from the sea, even if the strongest winds are offshore.

Take a look at http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell and run it through Mon/Tues. A fair variation run to run, but they'll get a very big sea unless the forecasts are way off.

Could be a brilliant surfing wave for France & Cornwall, far enough away for the swell to have cleaned up, gained wavelength, all without loosing too much height. (Where the winds offshore)

Lovely clearance here late afternoon, shame it'll be dark soon http://www..sennen-cove.com/harbourcam.htm

Graham
Penzance


3 hourly maximum swell height predictions, and associated periods, for Ophelia. http://magicseaweed.com/storms/559913/?worldChart=true

Sunday is currently predicted to see the biggest & most powerful conditions.. Move the cursor along the predicted path to see the current predictions at any point.

Graham
Penzance
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Old October 11th 17, 07:21 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On 11/10/2017 19:45, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook writes
THis is the only proper UK advisory I've seen
http://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-...helia-upgraded
-hurricane-610230
Complete with correct explanation of cat1, for uk general public, that
might imply , the most serious, as the yanks tend to do these things
uside-down, followed the new England exam gradings for some weird reason.


I've no idea who Devon Live are - a local radio station? - but that page
is quite impressive.


Agreed, a bit muddled in its presentation perhaps, but all the relevent
info is there.
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Old October 11th 17, 07:41 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

I've only just thought about looking at satellite image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg
If it quacks like a duck...

No raggedness at all.
Near real-time synoptics look nothing of any note at all currently.



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Old October 11th 17, 08:48 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

Must admit I hadn't appreciated quite how quickly some of these depressions
move in the mid-Atlantic. So the NHC projection is showing Ophelia still
well south of the Azores at 1200Z Saturday and then off Ireland by the same
time Monday. Probably got too used in recent weeks to watching hurricanes
meandering (not really the right word to use for a hurricane) around at a
few knots for days on end.

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Old October 11th 17, 09:52 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

There is a massive variety of ensemble solutions for Sunday and Monday, and there just isn't enough confidence in the outcome to say anything more than the bland statement. The MetO had to issue a chart for this time, but to be honest it could be well wide off the mark. The models will have a much tighter range of solutions in a couple of days time when extra-tropical transition is underway. One thing we can be certain of - the storm won't be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the UK, if indeed it does hit our shores at all.

--
Freddie


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