Thread: TS Ophelia
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Old October 11th 17, 08:20 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
N_Cook N_Cook is offline
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Default TS Ophelia

On 11/10/2017 09:11, Graham Easterling wrote:
SNIP

So NHC has it up to a huricane tomorrow and
96H 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
So 75mph to within 10 degrees lat and long of the UK.
GFS has sustained 65mph gusting to over 90mph winds for the Channel
Approaches, oo-er.


I'm beginning to think your latest dire warning might be onto something this time, if only for Cornwall & western Ireland (going by GFS & ECMWF) .

I'm not sure that 90mph gusts in the SW approaches are that rare, there were certainly a few 90mph gusts at Gwennap Head when I lived on the cliff top at Sennen (Talking of which I've just come across this https://geographic.org/global_weathe...060_99999.html though the decimal points are in the wrong place ) Certainly 80mph gusts at JCs Lands End site are far from rare, and that would indicate 90mph over the open sea.

THowever there is a brief period of very big waves forecast, in the 25-30' range at Sevenstones with a 15sec period. Certainly big but unexceptional, and with a low degree of certainty.

Time will tell.

Graham
Penzance


Strange to see the Daily Excess under-playing Hurricane Ophelia. They
have some weird input to their WWW weather section, saying it is going
overland at Portugal. Any old bod on usw could do better than whoever it
is on their deask.
All the global met models, currently have it going through Biscay and
centre going just to the west of Ireland.
As a large change from the concensus yesterday, I wonder what the 30th
anniversary of the 1987 Great Felling will have for mainland UK