Thread: TS Ophelia
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Old October 11th 17, 08:11 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Graham Easterling[_3_] Graham Easterling[_3_] is offline
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Default TS Ophelia

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So NHC has it up to a huricane tomorrow and
96H 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
So 75mph to within 10 degrees lat and long of the UK.
GFS has sustained 65mph gusting to over 90mph winds for the Channel
Approaches, oo-er.


I'm beginning to think your latest dire warning might be onto something this time, if only for Cornwall & western Ireland (going by GFS & ECMWF) .

I'm not sure that 90mph gusts in the SW approaches are that rare, there were certainly a few 90mph gusts at Gwennap Head when I lived on the cliff top at Sennen (Talking of which I've just come across this https://geographic.org/global_weathe...060_99999.html though the decimal points are in the wrong place ) Certainly 80mph gusts at JCs Lands End site are far from rare, and that would indicate 90mph over the open sea.

THowever there is a brief period of very big waves forecast, in the 25-30' range at Sevenstones with a 15sec period. Certainly big but unexceptional, and with a low degree of certainty.

Time will tell.

Graham
Penzance