Reading these messages on this board, there seems to be an un-natural
obsession with the high pressure over the Azores and its influence on
the weather.
But surely the Azores high is just a surface feature driven by the
upper atmosphere? Not the other way around.
What the computer models have difficulty with is not the movement of
surface high pressure areas, but the disruption of upper troughs over
the eastern Atlantic. Now, this is likey to influence the position of
the centre of the Azores high when it occurs at certain longitudes but
not all of the time.

I suggest turning your attention to the 250mb charts, and leaving the
Azores high to look after itself.

Also, the rather cynical attempts to rubbish the computer output
(especially when I doubt that any of you can perfrom 700 zillion
calculations per second in your head) would seem to miss the point. If
you look at all of the models in turn and take a combined output, then
you will arrive at an ensemble that will give you a good idea of the
future synoptic pattern. If the models all disagree, then you can
still make a pretty safe bet that the dynamic factors that will
influence the weather in the coming days are very finely balanced and
that a small shift in any one of the parameters will have a
significant influence on the final outcome, not that the computer
forecast should be laughed at.
This 'poor mans ensemble' ought to be taken more seriously. There is
nothing inherently wrong with the computer output, it just needs to be
interpreted properly.

crazyhorse wrote:

Also, the rather cynical attempts to rubbish the computer output
(especially when I doubt that any of you can perfrom 700 zillion
calculations per second in your head) would seem to miss the point. If
you look at all of the models in turn and take a combined output, then
you will arrive at an ensemble that will give you a good idea of the
future synoptic pattern. If the models all disagree, then you can
still make a pretty safe bet that the dynamic factors that will
influence the weather in the coming days are very finely balanced and
that a small shift in any one of the parameters will have a
significant influence on the final outcome, not that the computer
forecast should be laughed at.
This 'poor mans ensemble' ought to be taken more seriously. There is
nothing inherently wrong with the computer output, it just needs to be
interpreted properly.

Rubbish.

If I take the average of several works of fiction, I will get an average
work of fiction, not fact, nor even accuracy.

--
Chris
www.ivy-house.net
Swaffham, Norfolk

Crazy horse speak big sense -alas his words will be lost in wind on this group!
Old Indian tale speaks of time before Christmas when people go mad and gibber mindlessly of white
stuff falling from sky.Throughout the year people in their ignorance rubbish NWP output and kill
the good stock to divine the future.
The wise words of the tribal elders are lost and the false gods TWO and Metcheck are worshipped.
Truly one day a great storm will come and lay waste the land as these fools have their heads stuck
in the 'snow'!

-'Geronimo'
(Apologies to any Native Americans lurking)

"crazyhorse" wrote in message
om...

If you look at all of the models in turn and take a combined output, then
you will arrive at an ensemble that will give you a good idea of the
future synoptic pattern. If the models all disagree, then you can
still make a pretty safe bet that the dynamic factors that will
influence the weather in the coming days are very finely balanced and
that a small shift in any one of the parameters will have a
significant influence on the final outcome

Very well put, I totally agree

Graham

Penzance Weather www.easterling.freeserve.uk.co/weather

" Crazy horse speak big sense "

- probably, yes-
"alas his words will be lost in wind on this group!"

-errr, probably no.

Dave