Maybe I'm just a natural pessimist but for any of the charts I look at for
the next week or so the most consistent feature seems to be the Azores High.
This seems quite large, quite strong at 1032mb and ridging into the Bay of
Biscay. Surely a decent cold spell is unlikely while this feature persists,
as it usually does. While folks are looking to the North and East are they
possibly overlooking "the bleeding obvious" !
Hope I'm wrong.

Dave.

No doubt the reason for lack of cold winters for us these days is the ever
strong high pressure(S, SW), and\or lack of low pressure to the South. Of
course the two go hand in hand.
The point is, the warmer waters to our SW obviously encourage\ invigorate
the Azores High. I really think its as simple as this. I bet ya, as a
layman, I'm right ;=).
Of course, there are other areas of water which also come into play, but
this is the main player, along with the poles (ice etc.).
This is why any inland areas in Europe (Continent= Greece etc.) still have
the potential of cold weather, and still do\will, but we won't. ;=( .
Yes, we all know this, but do we? If we do, why do we still think the UK can
have cold, snowy spells like the past??
It is all so glaringly obvious. SST's rule all, and they ain't gonna get
cooler ;=( .
-------------------------------------------------------------
"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
Maybe I'm just a natural pessimist but for any of the charts I look at for
the next week or so the most consistent feature seems to be the Azores
High.
This seems quite large, quite strong at 1032mb and ridging into the Bay of
Biscay. Surely a decent cold spell is unlikely while this feature
persists,
as it usually does. While folks are looking to the North and East are they
possibly overlooking "the bleeding obvious" !
Hope I'm wrong.

Dave.

"danny(west kent)" wrote in
message ...


The point is, the warmer waters to our SW obviously encourage\
invigorate
the Azores High. I really think its as simple as this. I bet ya, as a
layman, I'm right ;=).

Hi Danny,

Keep your eye on this link, as I am sure you do -
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif
The area to SW of UK and Bay of Biscay has been below average for some
time now, however, it is coming towards normal now. Certainly not warmer
as you seem to make out.

As an aside, the area all around New Zealand looks a lot cooler than
average, any ideas from those who follow these every day, Martin R ? Also
a large negative anomoly around Dubai.

TIA, Joe

It is all so glaringly obvious. SST's rule all, and they ain't gonna get
cooler ;=( .

There's a bit more to it than that. It's SST anomalies that are
important, not simply the actual temperature. Although SST anomalies tend to
be quite persistent they don't live for ever, changes being brought about by
atmospheric warming or cooling and by dynamic effects in the ocean. And you
have to ask what brings about SST anomalies in the first place. The
atmosphere, largely. It's chicken-and-egg.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"danny(west kent)" wrote in
message ...
No doubt the reason for lack of cold winters for us these days is the ever
strong high pressure(S, SW), and\or lack of low pressure to the South. Of
course the two go hand in hand.
The point is, the warmer waters to our SW obviously encourage\ invigorate
the Azores High. I really think its as simple as this. I bet ya, as a
layman, I'm right ;=).
Of course, there are other areas of water which also come into play, but
this is the main player, along with the poles (ice etc.).
This is why any inland areas in Europe (Continent= Greece etc.) still have
the potential of cold weather, and still do\will, but we won't. ;=( .
Yes, we all know this, but do we? If we do, why do we still think the UK can
have cold, snowy spells like the past??
It is all so glaringly obvious. SST's rule all, and they ain't gonna get
cooler ;=( .

Well I still managed to get a covering of snow on Nov 18th, a time of the
year when SST's are still relatively high.
Now if it can snow in mid November then it most certainly can still snow
in January/February, even December!
I don't think there has ever been a time when November has been particularly
snowy in this country so if even today November can produce snow then there
is hope for the 'proper' winter months.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
As an aside, the area all around New Zealand looks a lot cooler than
average, any ideas from those who follow these every day, Martin R ?
Also
a large negative anomoly around Dubai.

.... no expert on these areas please note: the only thing about NZ I can
come up with atm is that one of my relations lives there and this is
what he sent me a few days ago:-

" Our Spring has been a bit of a mixed bag, and in fact we are going
through a bit of a cold spell at the moment. There is a lot of new
snow on the mountains. We do get this sort of thing mast years, and
there is little doubt that Winter is having its last fling. I crewed
for a friend on Lake Te Anau for a four day cruise. We had a great
time, and a lot of good sailing, but on the last day the snow came right
down to the lake level, which is not common. "

This might suggest that there is a lot of snow-melt coming off the land
and/or recent storminess has stirred up the water from lower down &
advected colder waters from higher latitudes as the depressions pass
away. It does seem a rather large area for snowmelt to affect, so I
would go with an enhanced storminess period.
As to "Dubai" (actually more like Qatar/Bahrain etc.), that cold patch
wasn't there a few weeks ago - the waters IIRC are relatively shallow in
the Gulf and recent storms may have again turned up colder water - there
have been reports of flooding etc., on the Iranian side of the Gulf. If
this theory is correct, it should sort itself out provided the situation
remains quiet.

Best I can do.

Martin.

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

" Our Spring has been a bit of a mixed bag, and in fact we are going
through a bit of a cold spell at the moment. There is a lot of new
snow on the mountains. We do get this sort of thing mast years, and
there is little doubt that Winter is having its last fling. I crewed
for a friend on Lake Te Anau for a four day cruise. We had a great
time, and a lot of good sailing, but on the last day the snow came right
down to the lake level, which is not common. "

This might suggest that there is a lot of snow-melt coming off the land
and/or recent storminess has stirred up the water from lower down &
advected colder waters from higher latitudes as the depressions pass
away. It does seem a rather large area for snowmelt to affect, so I
would go with an enhanced storminess period.
As to "Dubai" (actually more like Qatar/Bahrain etc.), that cold patch
wasn't there a few weeks ago - the waters IIRC are relatively shallow in
the Gulf and recent storms may have again turned up colder water - there
have been reports of flooding etc., on the Iranian side of the Gulf. If
this theory is correct, it should sort itself out provided the situation
remains quiet.

Best I can do.

Martin.

Hi Martin,

The "best you can do" is fine for me ! Thanks ever so much for that. All I
can do in return is clarify the SST off SW Sri Lanka, I'm off there on
Thursday.

ATB, Joe

Danny.
I thought it was colder water that highs formed over, not warmer. Could you
explain the reasons.
Regards. Len.
"danny(west kent)" wrote in
message ...
No doubt the reason for lack of cold winters for us these days is the ever
strong high pressure(S, SW), and\or lack of low pressure to the South. Of
course the two go hand in hand.
The point is, the warmer waters to our SW obviously encourage\ invigorate
the Azores High. I really think its as simple as this. I bet ya, as a
layman, I'm right ;=).
Of course, there are other areas of water which also come into play, but
this is the main player, along with the poles (ice etc.).
This is why any inland areas in Europe (Continent= Greece etc.) still have
the potential of cold weather, and still do\will, but we won't. ;=( .
Yes, we all know this, but do we? If we do, why do we still think the UK
can
have cold, snowy spells like the past??
It is all so glaringly obvious. SST's rule all, and they ain't gonna get
cooler ;=( .
-------------------------------------------------------------
"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
Maybe I'm just a natural pessimist but for any of the charts I look at
for
the next week or so the most consistent feature seems to be the Azores
High.
This seems quite large, quite strong at 1032mb and ridging into the Bay
of
Biscay. Surely a decent cold spell is unlikely while this feature
persists,
as it usually does. While folks are looking to the North and East are
they
possibly overlooking "the bleeding obvious" !
Hope I'm wrong.

Dave.

Good to have you back Danny,it must be nearly a year since your last
offering concerning warm waters and cold weather was issued. Your new theory
about the Azores High and warm water over the south west must be a
meteorological first,and worthy of further studies among the educated elite
of this group.
I look forward to their findings....

RonB
"danny(west kent)" wrote in
message ...
No doubt the reason for lack of cold winters for us these days is the ever
strong high pressure(S, SW), and\or lack of low pressure to the South. Of
course the two go hand in hand.
The point is, the warmer waters to our SW obviously encourage\ invigorate
the Azores High. I really think its as simple as this. I bet ya, as a
layman, I'm right ;=).
Of course, there are other areas of water which also come into play, but
this is the main player, along with the poles (ice etc.).
This is why any inland areas in Europe (Continent= Greece etc.) still have
the potential of cold weather, and still do\will, but we won't. ;=( .
Yes, we all know this, but do we? If we do, why do we still think the UK
can
have cold, snowy spells like the past??
It is all so glaringly obvious. SST's rule all, and they ain't gonna get
cooler ;=( .
-------------------------------------------------------------
"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
Maybe I'm just a natural pessimist but for any of the charts I look at
for
the next week or so the most consistent feature seems to be the Azores
High.
This seems quite large, quite strong at 1032mb and ridging into the Bay
of
Biscay. Surely a decent cold spell is unlikely while this feature
persists,
as it usually does. While folks are looking to the North and East are
they
possibly overlooking "the bleeding obvious" !
Hope I'm wrong.

Dave.

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
Thanks ever so much for that. All I
can do in return is clarify the SST off SW Sri Lanka, I'm off there on
Thursday.

.... lucky so and so ;-) Hope the trip goes well!

Martin.