Azores high
Reading these messages on this board, there seems to be an un-natural
obsession with the high pressure over the Azores and its influence on
the weather.
But surely the Azores high is just a surface feature driven by the
upper atmosphere? Not the other way around.
What the computer models have difficulty with is not the movement of
surface high pressure areas, but the disruption of upper troughs over
the eastern Atlantic. Now, this is likey to influence the position of
the centre of the Azores high when it occurs at certain longitudes but
not all of the time.
I suggest turning your attention to the 250mb charts, and leaving the
Azores high to look after itself.
Also, the rather cynical attempts to rubbish the computer output
(especially when I doubt that any of you can perfrom 700 zillion
calculations per second in your head) would seem to miss the point. If
you look at all of the models in turn and take a combined output, then
you will arrive at an ensemble that will give you a good idea of the
future synoptic pattern. If the models all disagree, then you can
still make a pretty safe bet that the dynamic factors that will
influence the weather in the coming days are very finely balanced and
that a small shift in any one of the parameters will have a
significant influence on the final outcome, not that the computer
forecast should be laughed at.
This 'poor mans ensemble' ought to be taken more seriously. There is
nothing inherently wrong with the computer output, it just needs to be
interpreted properly.
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