On 07/10/2018 09:31, N_Cook wrote:
Weaker but closer low of 12 Oct, MetO going for 955mB. Navgem is placing
a secondary low at the English channel entrance. I see NHC has its eyes
on yet another mid-latitude system initiating, which may have more
influence around 12 Oct, than Leslie, as a bit nearer us.


First BBC reference I've seen to this low affecting UK on Friday,
lunchtime today.
No mention on the news ch 21:55 slot last night , zipped thru in
animated synoptic and not referred to in narrative.
The surge in the Eng channel widgetting upwards each GFS wind output run.
NWW3 giving 15m sig wave heights SW of Ireland, 12 Oct.

Storminess pointer for today's NOAA SST output down to 61, so hinting at
the storm of 12 Oct or the passage of Leslie 14 Oct or so (peak around
04+week = 11 October .
MetO has brought the centre nearer the UK, but GFS splits the enhanced
wind arcs into 2, the southern one , if MetO centre, gives the south of
England a good blow.
GEM isotachs maximum go higher than GFS.
A higher proportion of the tropical cyclone models are giving Leslie a
late burst of intensity
https://www.cyclocane.com/leslie-spaghetti-models/
ignoring the outlier, there is always one, giving 133 knots etc

Anyone else who'd like to try SST anomaly pointer.
My selection pairs (roughly) and you would have to choose your own area,
met factor for a storm and the relative weighting, chosen dates.
42N,50W (current cool pool)
44N,10W

55N,45W
42N,46W

(reverse gradient of previous month)
50N,9W
50N,42W

On 29/09/2018 11:02, N_Cook wrote:
On the latest output of
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/
I just noticed the cold spot SE of Newfoundland, which is just the right
place (principal of the 3 temporal and spatial differential cold&hot
pairings, along with current positive SST anomaly around the UK) to
induce storms for the UK a week or so later, via this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf


and graphically analysing the SST plots a week and a month before , a
decades worth of past most severe UK storms. Since starting this
analysis September 2017 the peak number (nominal 100 for the worst past
serious southern UK storm) was 73 a week or so before the passage of
Ophelia and Storm Brian October 2017.
The number I get for last thursday SST output (27 Sep with 27 Aug) and
processing is 79.
So to see ,next Monday, whether that blue cold spot of the next NOAA SST
image is less or more blue.

The global met models would seem to have a storm for the UK about 06 Oct
and then the remnants of Leslie about 10 Oct , so far plausible.
The other ,lesser pairings , are longitudinally south of Greenland and a
latitudinal reverse-temperature-gradient pairing across the Atlantic to
the UK in the previous month, for anyone else who'd like to check the
Oct (plus Sep) 2017 archived NOAA SST plots themselves.

Continuing to drop back
2018 Year day-number, pointer value
274, 78
277 , 84 Output of 04 Oct, plus 1 week, predicting Storm Callum 12 October
281, 61
284, 65
288, 68
291, 55

For the full series, back a bit more than 1 year, towards the end of my
page on marine guff
http://diverse.4mg.com/solent.htm

Processing NOAA SST anomaly data of yesterday output, the storminess
number up to 78 again.
Suggestive of strorminess affecting the south of the UK in a weeks time
(dependent on this coming thursday output being higher or lower). 3 of
the global met models have a cyclonic influence over the channel
approaches then, although GFS was more vigorous with yesterday output,
rather than today.

Processing the output of yesterday gave a figure of 77, so pushed out
perhaps around 01 Nov

On 26/10/2018 09:11, N_Cook wrote:
Processing the output of yesterday gave a figure of 77, so pushed out
perhaps around 01 Nov




Looks like it will be due to Atlantic storm Oscar the main influence

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_95.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...?cone#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../270233.shtml?

On 27/10/2018 09:07, N_Cook wrote:
On 26/10/2018 09:11, N_Cook wrote:
Processing the output of yesterday gave a figure of 77, so pushed out
perhaps around 01 Nov




Looks like it will be due to Atlantic storm Oscar the main influence

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_95.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...?cone#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../270233.shtml?

Value for Monday output, down to 73, so suggestive of Oscar. But the met
models do not agree, very little wind affecting the channel approaches
area is their current consensus for Oscar passage of the UK.