Storminess predictor for the UK
 

On the latest output of
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/
I just noticed the cold spot SE of Newfoundland, which is just the right
place (principal of the 3 temporal and spatial differential cold&hot
pairings, along with current positive SST anomaly around the UK) to
induce storms for the UK a week or so later, via this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf

and graphically analysing the SST plots a week and a month before , a
decades worth of past most severe UK storms. Since starting this
analysis September 2017 the peak number (nominal 100 for the worst past
serious southern UK storm) was 73 a week or so before the passage of
Ophelia and Storm Brian October 2017.
The number I get for last thursday SST output (27 Sep with 27 Aug) and
processing is 79.
So to see ,next Monday, whether that blue cold spot of the next NOAA SST
image is less or more blue.

The global met models would seem to have a storm for the UK about 06 Oct
and then the remnants of Leslie about 10 Oct , so far plausible.
The other ,lesser pairings , are longitudinally south of Greenland and a
latitudinal reverse-temperature-gradient pairing across the Atlantic to
the UK in the previous month, for anyone else who'd like to check the
Oct (plus Sep) 2017 archived NOAA SST plots themselves.

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

On 29/09/2018 11:02, N_Cook wrote:
On the latest output of
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

This link is dead. Coincidentally(?) another link I use related to SST
anomalies also went missing in the past 24 hours.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

On 29/09/2018 12:36, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 29/09/2018 11:02, N_Cook wrote:
On the latest output of
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

This link is dead. Coincidentally(?) another link I use related to SST
anomalies also went missing in the past 24 hours.



Probably this

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

I can't confirm with my usual preferred browser ( it cuts out the
extraneous crap) but half these recently Google-stupid *securified*
sites block it, and I cannot open two browsers at the same time.
When I fire up the other one tomorrow, I'll check , if no-one else
confirms in the meantime.

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

On 29/09/2018 12:52, N_Cook wrote:
On 29/09/2018 12:36, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 29/09/2018 11:02, N_Cook wrote:
On the latest output of
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

This link is dead. Coincidentally(?) another link I use related to SST
anomalies also went missing in the past 24 hours.



Probably this

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

I can't confirm with my usual preferred browser ( it cuts out the
extraneous crap) but half these recently Google-stupid *securified*
sites block it, and I cannot open two browsers at the same time.
When I fire up the other one tomorrow, I'll check , if no-one else
confirms in the meantime.


Is this what you're looking for?
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php
There's a link to it on the page which isn't found any more

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

On 29/09/2018 13:33, Metman2012 wrote:
On 29/09/2018 12:52, N_Cook wrote:
On 29/09/2018 12:36, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 29/09/2018 11:02, N_Cook wrote:
On the latest output of
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

This link is dead. Coincidentally(?) another link I use related to SST
anomalies also went missing in the past 24 hours.



Probably this

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

I can't confirm with my usual preferred browser ( it cuts out the
extraneous crap) but half these recently Google-stupid *securified*
sites block it, and I cannot open two browsers at the same time.
When I fire up the other one tomorrow, I'll check , if no-one else
confirms in the meantime.


Is this what you're looking for?
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php
There's a link to it on the page which isn't found any more

That's something completely different but thanks anyway.

Here's one I usually use:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/
or there's this:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/o...aly/index.html
which might be what was meant in the first place.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

On 29/09/2018 11:02, N_Cook wrote:
On the latest output of
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/
I just noticed the cold spot SE of Newfoundland, which is just the right
place (principal of the 3 temporal and spatial differential cold&hot
pairings, along with current positive SST anomaly around the UK) to
induce storms for the UK a week or so later, via this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf


and graphically analysing the SST plots a week and a month before , a
decades worth of past most severe UK storms. Since starting this
analysis September 2017 the peak number (nominal 100 for the worst past
serious southern UK storm) was 73 a week or so before the passage of
Ophelia and Storm Brian October 2017.
The number I get for last thursday SST output (27 Sep with 27 Aug) and
processing is 79.
So to see ,next Monday, whether that blue cold spot of the next NOAA SST
image is less or more blue.

The global met models would seem to have a storm for the UK about 06 Oct
and then the remnants of Leslie about 10 Oct , so far plausible.
The other ,lesser pairings , are longitudinally south of Greenland and a
latitudinal reverse-temperature-gradient pairing across the Atlantic to
the UK in the previous month, for anyone else who'd like to check the
Oct (plus Sep) 2017 archived NOAA SST plots themselves.

The cold pool is a weak feature and probably of little consequence. The
main feature is the warm pool to the NW of it which would suggest
increased storminess over the UK, as pointed out back in the 60s. A cold
pool so far from the Great Banks would probably indicate a warm pool in
the more important area. Warmth in that area should increase depression
activity, resulting in anomalously low pressure between Iceland and
Scandinavia.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

On 29/09/2018 12:36, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 29/09/2018 11:02, N_Cook wrote:
On the latest output of
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

This link is dead. Coincidentally(?) another link I use related to SST
anomalies also went missing in the past 24 hours.



This is the URL of the latest image

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....8.23.2018.gif

I've lost the url of the index page, as I simply change the American
date in the command line to the relevant Monday or Thursday.

I see NHC now has the projected back-track of Leslie,
like the other sources, eg
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_13.gif

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

Processing the previous SST plot of 24 Sep 2018, gave a value of only 38.
The GFS mean , ECM mean and Canadian mean of the week-long model runs
put Leslie on track for the UK according to
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_13.gif

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

If there is anything in this predictor , then points to the storm 06 Oct
that ECM places over SE England and GFS places over the south North Sea
with 60mph wind gusting to 75mph and jetstream interaction. Looks like
Leslie does not want to move much from its chosen spot . Latest NOAA SST
output sometime after 18:00 BST this evening.

Storminess predictor for the UK
 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....8.23.2018.gif


I just noticed I posted the URL for an SST anomaly image from last month.
This morning I tried on someone elses pc with win10 and blocked from
access on both IE and Chrome to that URL.
So the s of https stands for screw-up, not security.
I can access on win7 with Opera , but I only use that on known sites as
lets thru too much crap for general usage.
The updated image early this evening should be
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....10.1.2018.gif
or (less likely)
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...10.01.2018.gif