Just in case this SST Anomaly storminess thing is onto anything.
Up to the highest figure since Ophelia passage Oct 2017.
Based around the paper , URL below as not compacted
Selecting the same 3 pairs of Atlantic sea-area NOAA produced SST
anomaly, and a notional value of 100 for most storminess (for Eng Channel)
3 digit numbers are the 2017 day-number (days from 00:00, 01 jan 2017),
this exploration starting at 12 October 2017
October
285, 43
289, 73
292, 66 : 292, (NHC) Hurricane Ophelia
296, 58 :294, Storm Brian
299, 68
303,58
November
306, 45
310, 49
313, 55 : 312, TS Rina (MS check archives jan/feb 2018)
317, 47 : 314, putative NHC TD/TS 20, dissipated before UK
320, 36
324, 45
327, 48
331, 51
334, 58
December
338, 54: 341 , Storm Caroline affecting Scotland
341, 58 : 344, no named storm but 90mph gusts in the English Channel
with a 971mB low
345, 42
348, 34
352, 59 ( no named storm, very localised force 9 westerlies for Ireland
on 14 Dec)
355, 38
The prior month component suggesting a stormy January 2018, considering
that component is negative currently
359, 35
362,62, Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017

2018
001, 43 ,Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
004,44 ,p/p 45
Processing the previous month ,selected pair of areas, as if next month
for the principal component p/p value,for year-day plus 30days
so if the other components are non negative, then the minimum 3 component
combined pointer value out of 100 for the next month
008,51, p/p 46
011, 57,p/p 41
015, 55, p/p 43 snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface
low, but violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
018,53,p/p 43
022, 52, p/p 30 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan
025, 54,p/p 31
029, 69, p/p 26

Storminess and surges in the South
Western Approaches of the eastern North
Atlantic: The synoptic climatology ...

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf

On Tuesday, January 30, 2018 at 9:13:08 AM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
Just in case this SST Anomaly storminess thing is onto anything.
Up to the highest figure since Ophelia passage Oct 2017.

Nothing particularly big currently forecast, for SW England that is. https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/ .
Some big seas forecast for western Ireland and off western Scotland next weekend.

Lovely clean wave here this morning, and the sand's already making a comeback. https://magicseaweed.com/Live-Sennen-Webcam/65/ I should imagine even the Sennen fleet will be able to get out today.

Graham
Penzance

On 30/01/2018 10:20, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Tuesday, January 30, 2018 at 9:13:08 AM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
Just in case this SST Anomaly storminess thing is onto anything.
Up to the highest figure since Ophelia passage Oct 2017.

Nothing particularly big currently forecast, for SW England that is. https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/ .
Some big seas forecast for western Ireland and off western Scotland next weekend.

Lovely clean wave here this morning, and the sand's already making a comeback. https://magicseaweed.com/Live-Sennen-Webcam/65/ I should imagine even the Sennen fleet will be able to get out today.

Graham
Penzance



That was my take, but interesting if the SST business picks up something
the global models have not , in the prediction sense. 55mph wind into N
Ireland evening of the 31 Jan , but I now see the 06Z GFS run has
knocked that back to 50mph. The NW wind for the East coast not as much
as it was predicting a couple of days back.
I suppose if the jetstream decided to move westward 100 miles for the
31-01 timeslot it would be problematic for southern England, but even
then , not too much.

Whats the betting someone pulls the plug on big-data NTSLF today, just
prior to something big?
AFAIK its impossible to have the same times of high tides at Portsmouth,
Newhaven and Dover tomorrow, for both day-middle and day-end high tides,
now showing on the NTSLF surge predictor plots for those 3 ports.
http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ast?port=Dover
http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...?port=Newhaven
http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ort=Portsmouth

I revisited the p/p "prior predictor" values not on that listing , for
the end of Dec 2017, hinting at this peaking at the end of Jan 2018
2017
355, 38, p/p 43
The prior month component suggesting a stormy January 2018, considering
that (close to the currently negative correlation) component is strongly
negative currently.
Processing the selected pair of areas as if it was next month, for the
prior predictor p/p value,
so if the other two future current month components are non negative,
then the minimum 3 component combined pointer value out of 100 for the
next month
359, 35 , p/p 47 (revisiting at the end of January 2018, because of a
high combined storminess value, this is the peak p/p value the month before)
362,62, p/p 46,Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017

On 30/01/2018 11:38, N_Cook wrote:
Whats the betting someone pulls the plug on big-data NTSLF today, just
prior to something big?
AFAIK its impossible to have the same times of high tides at Portsmouth,
Newhaven and Dover tomorrow, for both day-middle and day-end high tides,
now showing on the NTSLF surge predictor plots for those 3 ports.
http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ast?port=Dover
http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...?port=Newhaven
http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ort=Portsmouth

I revisited the p/p "prior predictor" values not on that listing , for
the end of Dec 2017, hinting at this peaking at the end of Jan 2018
2017
355, 38, p/p 43
The prior month component suggesting a stormy January 2018, considering
that (close to the currently negative correlation) component is strongly
negative currently.
Processing the selected pair of areas as if it was next month, for the
prior predictor p/p value,
so if the other two future current month components are non negative,
then the minimum 3 component combined pointer value out of 100 for the
next month
359, 35 , p/p 47 (revisiting at the end of January 2018, because of a
high combined storminess value, this is the peak p/p value the month
before)
362,62, p/p 46,Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017





The moon hasn't wandered off, but there is some very unusual astronomy,
so those 3 well separated ports can have the same times of high water.

A quirk of celestial mechanics.
As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll
have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of those tides, presumably.
I wonder what conjuction of harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat.