**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

In message , Col
writes
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be
under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source
and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.


That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and
GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240,
in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an
anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or
south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by
the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with
temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly.

Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the
next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that
Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 19:27:08 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.


You're just parroting Joe *******i

https://twitter.com/BigJoe*******i January 11th.

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums.

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:29:21 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , Col
writes
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be
under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source
and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.


That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and
GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240,
in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an
anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or
south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by
the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with
temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly.

Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the
next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that
Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

Oh they have, John!

On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now!

I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould
chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty.

I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the
model output threads on forums.

So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 19:27:08 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

The Met Office don't share your confidence. This from Essex Weather Cent "Yep, the cold spell begins! As you've probably noticed the Met Office jumped on board today with the long term cold outlook. Both MOGREPS and other internal models show a Easterly influence (on and off) across Southern England until Mid February."

--

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On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher degree
of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to day
fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic pattern and
the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of course that one
isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240.
I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in
December when there was bigger cross model support at that range.
Dave

In message , Dave Cornwell
writes
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be
under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic
source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure


The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit
interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher
degree of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to
day fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic
pattern and the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of
course that one isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240.
I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in
December when there was bigger cross model support at that range.
Dave

Obviously the models do Dawlish's bidding. Today's 00Z runs were more
progressive than yesterday's 12Z, and today's GFS 12Z is more
progressive still.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones