On Saturday, January 23, 2016 at 6:21:44 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
dawlish Wrote in message:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

This one was pretty much bang on. You could have put your trust in the model output from 10 days ago, to have shown you what the weather would be like today. It certainly is possible to use models to forecast at 10 days, on occasions. Much of the time, however, you can't trust them to do so.

After this re-establishment, it's looking zonal now to the end of January at least.

I don't think it looks zonal at all. Certainly Atlantic air, but
an amplified and progressive upper pattern. Not what I would
consider zonal. Nor is there a "controlling" (whatever that is)
European high.

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

To be fair, he's cleverly covered both bases. I would have said that there is a European high, but influencing rather than controlling, but equally, it's not really zonal is it?
Is it Atlantic air? Debatable, in the SE the source would seem to be rather more land mass based, but the origins are generally in the Azores, which is in the Atlantic.
Having said all that, how many times are we not affected by Atlantic air?

dawlish Wrote in message:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. ????

Are you calling success on this one, despite the lack of a
European high "controlling" the weather?

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

dawlish Wrote in message:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

This one was pretty much bang on. You could have put your trust in the model output from 10 days ago, to have shown you what the weather would be like today. It certainly is possible to use models to forecast at 10 days, on occasions. Much of the time, however, you can't trust them to do so.

After this re-establishment, it's looking zonal now to the end of January at least.

I don't think it looks zonal at all. Certainly Atlantic air, but
an amplified and progressive upper pattern. Not what I would
consider zonal. Nor is there a "controlling" (whatever that is)
European high.

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

David Mitchell Wrote in message:
On Saturday, January 23, 2016 at 6:21:44 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
dawlish Wrote in message:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

This one was pretty much bang on. You could have put your trust in the model output from 10 days ago, to have shown you what the weather would be like today. It certainly is possible to use models to forecast at 10 days, on occasions. Much of the time, however, you can't trust them to do so.

After this re-establishment, it's looking zonal now to the end of January at least.

I don't think it looks zonal at all. Certainly Atlantic air, but
an amplified and progressive upper pattern. Not what I would
consider zonal. Nor is there a "controlling" (whatever that is)
European high.

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

To be fair, he's cleverly covered both bases. I would have said that there is a European high
I know the type of European high he meant - the quasi-stationary
type that is associated with (but not controlling) zonal types -
but what we have isn't one of those.
Is it Atlantic air? Debatable, in the SE the source would seem to be rather more land mass based, but the origins are generally in the Azores, which is in the Atlantic.
Agreed - but most of the country is affected by Atlantic air, so
he was correct on that point.
Having said all that, how many times are we not affected by Atlantic air?
A very good point.


--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

On 23/01/2016 14:35, dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. 😀😀


When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There
was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it
correctly but you really just got lucky.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I've not done any quantative analysis but I would reckon if there no clear pattern the most probable outcome would be zonality. A safe bet so to speak in the long run. I wouldn't call that forecast though.

On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote:
On 23/01/2016 14:35, dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. 😀😀


When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There
was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it
correctly but you really just got lucky.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days?

As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before.

On 24/01/2016 08:54, dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote:



When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There
was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it
correctly but you really just got lucky.



150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days?

You only forecast on very specific occasions and rightly so, you know
better than anyone how difficult it is.

As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before.

They weren't showing any consistency at 5 days never mind 10. I guess
that once again all those people on TWO were wrong and you are right.


--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 10:05:51 AM UTC, Col wrote:
On 24/01/2016 08:54, dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote:



When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There
was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it
correctly but you really just got lucky.



150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days?

You only forecast on very specific occasions and rightly so, you know
better than anyone how difficult it is.

I do.

As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before.

They weren't showing any consistency at 5 days never mind 10. I guess
that once again all those people on TWO were wrong and you are right.

They were wrong. That's not my fault. You and they just didn't recognise it, sorry. How successful do you think I'd be if I guessed these forecasts?

On Sunday, 24 January 2016 10:05:51 UTC, Col wrote:
On 24/01/2016 08:54, dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote:



When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There
was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it
correctly but you really just got lucky.



150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days?

You only forecast on very specific occasions and rightly so, you know
better than anyone how difficult it is.

As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before.

They weren't showing any consistency at 5 days never mind 10. I guess
that once again all those people on TWO were wrong and you are right.


--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

The thing with the models and inconsistency is , we also know that nine times out of ten the reality is westerly's.