On 13/01/2016 21:24, Scott W wrote:
On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 19:27:08 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

The Met Office don't share your confidence. This from Essex Weather Cent "Yep, the cold spell begins! As you've probably noticed the Met Office jumped on board today with the long term cold outlook. Both MOGREPS and other internal models show a Easterly influence (on and off) across Southern England until Mid February."

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I don't see how they can say that with any confidence at this stage.

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now!

I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould
chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty.

I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the
model output threads on forums.

So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Best way.

PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go.

On 14/01/2016 19:07, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote:


So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Best way.

PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go.

Indeed it does, things seem to be going your way so far.
But there is no point in giving a running commentary on the inevitable
twists & turns prior to the 23rd so I will leave it at that for now

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I did explain why.

I did explain why.

On Thursday, 14 January 2016 19:07:26 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now!

I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould
chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty.

I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the
model output threads on forums.

So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Best way.

PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go.

It looks like it *could* all hinge on what the low (FAX chart L1010 at 120Z) on Monday does. Will it stall, turn left or turn right? MetO are still saying not to look beyond 120Z


--

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On Thursday, 14 January 2016 19:36:23 UTC, Col wrote:
On 14/01/2016 19:07, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote:


So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Best way.

PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go.

Indeed it does, things seem to be going your way so far.
But there is no point in giving a running commentary on the inevitable
twists & turns prior to the 23rd so I will leave it at that for now

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Blimey a zonal forecast, how does the idiot do it. Incredible and against the whole meteorological historical data grain.

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Looking pretty good at this distance. Depends to some extent whether the European high is positioned over the UK as to full accuracy, but models are not in agreement on the exact position at all. I favour a position to the south of the uk, perhaps with a ridge over us. What they are in mostly agreement about and have been since the 13th is that Atlantic air will cover the UK on the 23rd.

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

This one was pretty much bang on. You could have put your trust in the model output from 10 days ago, to have shown you what the weather would be like today. It certainly is possible to use models to forecast at 10 days, on occasions. Much of the time, however, you can't trust them to do so.

After this re-establishment, it's looking zonal now to the end of January at least.

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. 😀😀