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**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **
The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
In message , Col
writes On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240, in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly. Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 19:27:08 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. You're just parroting Joe *******i https://twitter.com/BigJoe*******i January 11th. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:29:21 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , Col writes On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240, in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly. Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones Oh they have, John! |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty. I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. So you know best obviously. Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 19:27:08 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. The Met Office don't share your confidence. This from Essex Weather Cent "Yep, the cold spell begins! As you've probably noticed the Met Office jumped on board today with the long term cold outlook. Both MOGREPS and other internal models show a Easterly influence (on and off) across Southern England until Mid February." -- ------------------------------ *This email was sent by a company owned by Financial Times Group Limited ("FT Group http://aboutus.ft.com/corporate-information/#axzz3rajCSIAt"), registered office at Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL. Registered in England and Wales with company number 879531. This e-mail may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender immediately, delete all copies and do not distribute it further. It could also contain personal views which are not necessarily those of the FT Group. We may monitor outgoing or incoming emails as permitted by law.* |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher degree of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to day fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic pattern and the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of course that one isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240. I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in December when there was bigger cross model support at that range. Dave |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
In message , Dave Cornwell
writes On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher degree of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to day fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic pattern and the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of course that one isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240. I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in December when there was bigger cross model support at that range. Dave Obviously the models do Dawlish's bidding. :) Today's 00Z runs were more progressive than yesterday's 12Z, and today's GFS 12Z is more progressive still. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones |
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