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**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **
The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
In message , Col
writes On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240, in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly. Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 19:27:08 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. You're just parroting Joe *******i https://twitter.com/BigJoe*******i January 11th. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:29:21 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , Col writes On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240, in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly. Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones Oh they have, John! |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty. I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. So you know best obviously. Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 19:27:08 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. The Met Office don't share your confidence. This from Essex Weather Cent "Yep, the cold spell begins! As you've probably noticed the Met Office jumped on board today with the long term cold outlook. Both MOGREPS and other internal models show a Easterly influence (on and off) across Southern England until Mid February." -- ------------------------------ *This email was sent by a company owned by Financial Times Group Limited ("FT Group http://aboutus.ft.com/corporate-information/#axzz3rajCSIAt"), registered office at Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL. Registered in England and Wales with company number 879531. This e-mail may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender immediately, delete all copies and do not distribute it further. It could also contain personal views which are not necessarily those of the FT Group. We may monitor outgoing or incoming emails as permitted by law.* |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher degree of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to day fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic pattern and the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of course that one isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240. I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in December when there was bigger cross model support at that range. Dave |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
In message , Dave Cornwell
writes On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher degree of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to day fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic pattern and the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of course that one isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240. I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in December when there was bigger cross model support at that range. Dave Obviously the models do Dawlish's bidding. :) Today's 00Z runs were more progressive than yesterday's 12Z, and today's GFS 12Z is more progressive still. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 13/01/2016 21:24, Scott W wrote:
On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 19:27:08 UTC, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. The Met Office don't share your confidence. This from Essex Weather Cent "Yep, the cold spell begins! As you've probably noticed the Met Office jumped on board today with the long term cold outlook. Both MOGREPS and other internal models show a Easterly influence (on and off) across Southern England until Mid February." ------------------------------------------------------------------ I don't see how they can say that with any confidence at this stage. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty. I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. So you know best obviously. Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Best way. PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 14/01/2016 19:07, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote: So you know best obviously. Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Best way. PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go. Indeed it does, things seem to be going your way so far. But there is no point in giving a running commentary on the inevitable twists & turns prior to the 23rd so I will leave it at that for now :) -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
I did explain why.
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**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
I did explain why.
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**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Thursday, 14 January 2016 19:07:26 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty. I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums. So you know best obviously. Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Best way. PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go. It looks like it *could* all hinge on what the low (FAX chart L1010 at 120Z) on Monday does. Will it stall, turn left or turn right? MetO are still saying not to look beyond 120Z -- ------------------------------ *This email was sent by a company owned by Financial Times Group Limited ("FT Group http://aboutus.ft.com/corporate-information/#axzz3rajCSIAt"), registered office at Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL. Registered in England and Wales with company number 879531. This e-mail may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender immediately, delete all copies and do not distribute it further. It could also contain personal views which are not necessarily those of the FT Group. We may monitor outgoing or incoming emails as permitted by law.* |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Thursday, 14 January 2016 19:36:23 UTC, Col wrote:
On 14/01/2016 19:07, Dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote: So you know best obviously. Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Best way. PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go. Indeed it does, things seem to be going your way so far. But there is no point in giving a running commentary on the inevitable twists & turns prior to the 23rd so I will leave it at that for now :) -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg Blimey a zonal forecast, how does the idiot do it. Incredible and against the whole meteorological historical data grain. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Looking pretty good at this distance. Depends to some extent whether the European high is positioned over the UK as to full accuracy, but models are not in agreement on the exact position at all. I favour a position to the south of the uk, perhaps with a ridge over us. What they are in mostly agreement about and have been since the 13th is that Atlantic air will cover the UK on the 23rd. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. This one was pretty much bang on. You could have put your trust in the model output from 10 days ago, to have shown you what the weather would be like today. It certainly is possible to use models to forecast at 10 days, on occasions. Much of the time, however, you can't trust them to do so. After this re-establishment, it's looking zonal now to the end of January at least. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. 😀😀 |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Saturday, January 23, 2016 at 6:21:44 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
dawlish Wrote in message: On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. This one was pretty much bang on. You could have put your trust in the model output from 10 days ago, to have shown you what the weather would be like today. It certainly is possible to use models to forecast at 10 days, on occasions. Much of the time, however, you can't trust them to do so. After this re-establishment, it's looking zonal now to the end of January at least. I don't think it looks zonal at all. Certainly Atlantic air, but an amplified and progressive upper pattern. Not what I would consider zonal. Nor is there a "controlling" (whatever that is) European high. -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ To be fair, he's cleverly covered both bases. I would have said that there is a European high, but influencing rather than controlling, but equally, it's not really zonal is it? Is it Atlantic air? Debatable, in the SE the source would seem to be rather more land mass based, but the origins are generally in the Azores, which is in the Atlantic. Having said all that, how many times are we not affected by Atlantic air? |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
dawlish Wrote in message:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. ???? Are you calling success on this one, despite the lack of a European high "controlling" the weather? -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
dawlish Wrote in message:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. This one was pretty much bang on. You could have put your trust in the model output from 10 days ago, to have shown you what the weather would be like today. It certainly is possible to use models to forecast at 10 days, on occasions. Much of the time, however, you can't trust them to do so. After this re-establishment, it's looking zonal now to the end of January at least. I don't think it looks zonal at all. Certainly Atlantic air, but an amplified and progressive upper pattern. Not what I would consider zonal. Nor is there a "controlling" (whatever that is) European high. -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
David Mitchell Wrote in message:
On Saturday, January 23, 2016 at 6:21:44 PM UTC, Freddie wrote: dawlish Wrote in message: On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 7:27:08 PM UTC, dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. This one was pretty much bang on. You could have put your trust in the model output from 10 days ago, to have shown you what the weather would be like today. It certainly is possible to use models to forecast at 10 days, on occasions. Much of the time, however, you can't trust them to do so. After this re-establishment, it's looking zonal now to the end of January at least. I don't think it looks zonal at all. Certainly Atlantic air, but an amplified and progressive upper pattern. Not what I would consider zonal. Nor is there a "controlling" (whatever that is) European high. -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ To be fair, he's cleverly covered both bases. I would have said that there is a European high I know the type of European high he meant - the quasi-stationary type that is associated with (but not controlling) zonal types - but what we have isn't one of those. Is it Atlantic air? Debatable, in the SE the source would seem to be rather more land mass based, but the origins are generally in the Azores, which is in the Atlantic. Agreed - but most of the country is affected by Atlantic air, so he was correct on that point. Having said all that, how many times are we not affected by Atlantic air? A very good point. -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 23/01/2016 14:35, dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. 😀😀 When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it correctly but you really just got lucky. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
I've not done any quantative analysis but I would reckon if there no clear pattern the most probable outcome would be zonality. A safe bet so to speak in the long run. I wouldn't call that forecast though.
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**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote:
On 23/01/2016 14:35, dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote: On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote: **In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. ** The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long. Good luck with that one! I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let alone 10. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. 😀😀 When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it correctly but you really just got lucky. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg 150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days? As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On 24/01/2016 08:54, dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote: When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it correctly but you really just got lucky. 150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days? You only forecast on very specific occasions and rightly so, you know better than anyone how difficult it is. As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before. They weren't showing any consistency at 5 days never mind 10. I guess that once again all those people on TWO were wrong and you are right. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 10:05:51 AM UTC, Col wrote:
On 24/01/2016 08:54, dawlish wrote: On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote: When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it correctly but you really just got lucky. 150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days? You only forecast on very specific occasions and rightly so, you know better than anyone how difficult it is. I do. As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before. They weren't showing any consistency at 5 days never mind 10. I guess that once again all those people on TWO were wrong and you are right. They were wrong. That's not my fault. You and they just didn't recognise it, sorry. How successful do you think I'd be if I guessed these forecasts? |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Sunday, 24 January 2016 10:05:51 UTC, Col wrote:
On 24/01/2016 08:54, dawlish wrote: On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote: When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it correctly but you really just got lucky. 150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days? You only forecast on very specific occasions and rightly so, you know better than anyone how difficult it is. As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before. They weren't showing any consistency at 5 days never mind 10. I guess that once again all those people on TWO were wrong and you are right. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg The thing with the models and inconsistency is , we also know that nine times out of ten the reality is westerly's. |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
It was the Met Office words that had me confused- that went against GFS, ECM etc output.
I know it saves on heating bills and you shouldn't wish your life away but I'm sick to death if this mild dross and just want it to be summer now! |
**Forecast: a re-establishment of zonal conditions by T+240
On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 8:39:14 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
It was the Met Office words that had me confused- that went against GFS, ECM etc output. I know it saves on heating bills and you shouldn't wish your life away but I'm sick to death if this mild dross and just want it to be summer now! I ignored them. The models showed no such confusion. |
Forecast: thread for an empty tin
This is a dawl just see the picture of children on a school outing and move on:
Here is the weather forecast for the next five years: even hotter Long-range forecast predicts generally upward temperature trend, possibly interrupted by La Niña event in 2017 I'm feeling yawnish: http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...-hotter/zzzzzz Meanwhile here on planet earth somewhere far far away from Unreading and Leased Anglia: Carbon dioxide levels continue to rise as the world's oceans are far too hot to absorb them even as plankton feed and trees in distress for want of aerial nutriment fail to extract their urine... Co2 levels inexplicably rise to an effect a lot less similar to a box of matches in a closed room to the unwary. When someone told his mother he needs a tin pot on his head Mrs Dawlish thought it best to remove the contents only his father having a similar mental certainty obviously misunderoaf* her requirement. |
Forecast: thread for an empty tin
Told you.
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