In message , Dave Cornwell
writes
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be
under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic
source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure


The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit
interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums.

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When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher
degree of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to
day fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic
pattern and the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of
course that one isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240.
I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in
December when there was bigger cross model support at that range.
Dave

Obviously the models do Dawlish's bidding. Today's 00Z runs were more
progressive than yesterday's 12Z, and today's GFS 12Z is more
progressive still.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones