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| uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
November 8th 15, 02:21 PM
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My winter probabilities...
Loosely based on previous similar years, el nino and some of the various
seasonal modelling I've looked at. Also being biased to the SE of the UK. Mild winter throughout 40% chance Cold second half 35% chance Cold late Nov/Dec 25% chance Had it not been for the el nino I would be more heavily weighted towards a colder winter, but the SST anomalies in the Atlantic *may* have a counter influence on the strong westerly pattern currently being experienced as we run through the winter. Always like to have a stab in the dark, any thoughts or arguments always welcome. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman |
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#2
November 8th 15, 04:07 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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My winter probabilities...
On Sunday, 8 November 2015 15:20:41 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Loosely based on previous similar years, el nino and some of the various seasonal modelling I've looked at. Also being biased to the SE of the UK. Mild winter throughout 40% chance Cold second half 35% chance Cold late Nov/Dec 25% chance Had it not been for the el nino I would be more heavily weighted towards a colder winter, but the SST anomalies in the Atlantic *may* have a counter influence on the strong westerly pattern currently being experienced as we run through the winter. Always like to have a stab in the dark, any thoughts or arguments always welcome. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman ------------------------------------------------------------------------- So you are going for a cold winter throughout Keith? 60% chance? Len Wembury --------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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#3
November 8th 15, 04:11 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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My winter probabilities...
In message , "Keith (Southend)"
writes Loosely based on previous similar years, el nino and some of the various seasonal modelling I've looked at. Also being biased to the SE of the UK. Mild winter throughout 40% chance Cold second half 35% chance Cold late Nov/Dec 25% chance Does that mean that you assess cold throughout as being a 0% chance? -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones |
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#4
November 8th 15, 05:38 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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My winter probabilities...
On 08/11/2015 17:07, Len Wood wrote:
On Sunday, 8 November 2015 15:20:41 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote: Loosely based on previous similar years, el nino and some of the various seasonal modelling I've looked at. Also being biased to the SE of the UK. Mild winter throughout 40% chance Cold second half 35% chance Cold late Nov/Dec 25% chance Had it not been for the el nino I would be more heavily weighted towards a colder winter, but the SST anomalies in the Atlantic *may* have a counter influence on the strong westerly pattern currently being experienced as we run through the winter. Always like to have a stab in the dark, any thoughts or arguments always welcome. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman ------------------------------------------------------------------------- So you are going for a cold winter throughout Keith? 60% chance? Len Wembury --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mmm, I see your points? I'm probably going to dig a hole for myself here, but here we go... 1. The total of the three add up to 100%, thus the highest %, most likely, is for a mild throughout winter (40%). 2. Followed by the cold second half, thus mild through December and into the 1st half of January. (35%) 3. Then the cold earlier scenario, with the latter part of winter being mild. (25%) Therefore I am currently leaning on the mild winter solution as most likely. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman |
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#5
November 8th 15, 06:47 PM
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My winter probabilities...
Wouldn't cold throughout then be 0.25 x 0.35 = 8.75%
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#6
November 9th 15, 04:46 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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My winter probabilities...
On Sunday, November 8, 2015 at 6:37:41 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On 08/11/2015 17:07, Len Wood wrote: On Sunday, 8 November 2015 15:20:41 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote: Loosely based on previous similar years, el nino and some of the various seasonal modelling I've looked at. Also being biased to the SE of the UK. Mild winter throughout 40% chance Cold second half 35% chance Cold late Nov/Dec 25% chance Had it not been for the el nino I would be more heavily weighted towards a colder winter, but the SST anomalies in the Atlantic *may* have a counter influence on the strong westerly pattern currently being experienced as we run through the winter. Always like to have a stab in the dark, any thoughts or arguments always welcome. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman ------------------------------------------------------------------------- So you are going for a cold winter throughout Keith? 60% chance? Len Wembury --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mmm, I see your points? I'm probably going to dig a hole for myself here, but here we go... 1. The total of the three add up to 100%, thus the highest %, most likely, is for a mild throughout winter (40%). 2. Followed by the cold second half, thus mild through December and into the 1st half of January. (35%) 3. Then the cold earlier scenario, with the latter part of winter being mild. (25%) Therefore I am currently leaning on the mild winter solution as most likely. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman I think you have Keith! Mild/Average/Cold %s would help you in 1. Not sure what would help you in 2 and 3! 😀 |
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#7
November 9th 15, 08:57 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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My winter probabilities...
On Sunday, 8 November 2015 18:37:41 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On 08/11/2015 17:07, Len Wood wrote: On Sunday, 8 November 2015 15:20:41 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote: Loosely based on previous similar years, el nino and some of the various seasonal modelling I've looked at. Also being biased to the SE of the UK. Mild winter throughout 40% chance Cold second half 35% chance Cold late Nov/Dec 25% chance Had it not been for the el nino I would be more heavily weighted towards a colder winter, but the SST anomalies in the Atlantic *may* have a counter influence on the strong westerly pattern currently being experienced as we run through the winter. Always like to have a stab in the dark, any thoughts or arguments always welcome. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman ------------------------------------------------------------------------- So you are going for a cold winter throughout Keith? 60% chance? Len Wembury --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mmm, I see your points? I'm probably going to dig a hole for myself here, but here we go... 1. The total of the three add up to 100%, thus the highest %, most likely, is for a mild throughout winter (40%). 2. Followed by the cold second half, thus mild through December and into the 1st half of January. (35%) 3. Then the cold earlier scenario, with the latter part of winter being mild. (25%) Therefore I am currently leaning on the mild winter solution as most likely. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman ----------------------------------------------------------------------- I think there is a problem with using the word 'throughout'. It is confusing to make the probabilities add up to 100%. They are all relatively low chance events. Not much confidence in what will happen this winter then. Never mind Keith. We get your drift. :-) Len Wembury -------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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