In message , "Keith (Southend)"
writes
Loosely based on previous similar years, el nino and some of the
various seasonal modelling I've looked at. Also being biased to the SE
of the UK.

Mild winter throughout 40% chance
Cold second half 35% chance
Cold late Nov/Dec 25% chance

Does that mean that you assess cold throughout as being a 0% chance?
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones