It's that time of year again. I reckon my region of east London and Essex is in for a winter over 1C below average with average to slightly below precipitation.

To be reviewed on March 1st along with possible helpings of humble pie and egg on face https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/...recast-201617/

"Scott W" wrote in message
...
It's that time of year again. I reckon my region of east London and Essex
is in for a winter over 1C below average with average to slightly below
precipitation.

To be reviewed on March 1st along with possible helpings of humble pie and
egg on face
https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/...recast-201617/

Looks to be about right. Good luck!

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

In message ,
Scott W writes
It's that time of year again. I reckon my region of east London and
Essex is in for a winter over 1C below average with average to slightly
below precipitation.

To be reviewed on March 1st along with possible helpings of humble pie
and egg on face
https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/...er-forecast-20
1617/

An interesting read. Are the temperatures quoted CETs or for your local
area?

"The overall mean temperature for December, January and February came
out at as 4.2C – 1.2C colder than the 1981-2010 average, with average
precipitation."

I think that shows how mild recent decades have been on the whole, in
spite of some notably cold winters in the 1980s and in 2009-10 and a
very cold December in 2010. Fifty years or so ago, rather than 4.2C
being rather cold it would merely have been average.

"As well as my method of using rainfall and temperature I also
considered other methods. One was Russian research that states that the
weather pattern in the winter will be the opposite to the weather on
September 17th and November 7th. This autumn September 17th was N’ly
and November 7th was NNW’ly. So, this would suggest a continental flow
from S and SSE."

Even if that's true for European Russia (which I find rather hard to
believe), the UK is far enough away to make it very doubtful that it
would apply here too. Apart from anything else, I suspect that the wind
direction here tends to fluctuate much more from day to day, with the
frequent passage of depressions fairly nearby, than it does further
east.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

On Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 10:23:09 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:

An interesting read. Are the temperatures quoted CETs or for your local
area?

My local area, back to 1797. CET is often very similar or slightly colder though there is the odd occasion when my figures are notably lower. I think discrepancies arise when the south is under the influence of a strong anticyclonic flow off a cold continent, the Midlands northwards, closer to the centre of a high pressure, relatively benign. The weather this week has been 'topsy turvy'.

"The overall mean temperature for December, January and February came
out at as 4.2C – 1.2C colder than the 1981-2010 average, with average
precipitation."

I think that shows how mild recent decades have been on the whole, in
spite of some notably cold winters in the 1980s and in 2009-10 and a
very cold December in 2010. Fifty years or so ago, rather than 4.2C
being rather cold it would merely have been average.

Indeed. An average winter, this area experiences 6 snow lying days in such a year, would 'feel' very cold this year when compared with the previous 3 winters.

"As well as my method of using rainfall and temperature I also
considered other methods. One was Russian research that states that the
weather pattern in the winter will be the opposite to the weather on
September 17th and November 7th. This autumn September 17th was N’ly
and November 7th was NNW’ly. So, this would suggest a continental flow
from S and SSE."

Even if that's true for European Russia (which I find rather hard to
believe), the UK is far enough away to make it very doubtful that it
would apply here too. Apart from anything else, I suspect that the wind
direction here tends to fluctuate much more from day to day, with the
frequent passage of depressions fairly nearby, than it does further
east.
--
I've not been able to source the original paper for this study but you're probably right. As Richard said in another spread the pattern screams battleground.

To be reviewed on March 1st along with possible helpings of humble pie and
egg on face.

Good effort Scott as you say time will tell.
I fancy yet another mild or very mild December although not as warm as last
years obscene effort!


Graham

Graham wrote:



To be reviewed on March 1st along with possible helpings of humble pie and
egg on face.

Good effort Scott as you say time will tell.
I fancy yet another mild or very mild December although not as warm as last
years obscene effort!


Graham

December has certainly started off with temps well above the average in
Tideswell.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

In message , Norman Lynagh
writes
Graham wrote:



To be reviewed on March 1st along with possible helpings of humble pie and
egg on face.

Good effort Scott as you say time will tell.
I fancy yet another mild or very mild December although not as warm as last
years obscene effort!


Graham

December has certainly started off with temps well above the average in
Tideswell.


Whereas they've been below average in Surrey, especially at night.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

On Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 9:20:16 AM UTC, Scott W wrote:
It's that time of year again. I reckon my region of east London and Essex is in for a winter over 1C below average with average to slightly below precipitation.

To be reviewed on March 1st along with possible helpings of humble pie and egg on face https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/...recast-201617/

Forecast mean: 4.2C (result: 5.5C)
Forecast rain: 'slightly below' (result: 126.9mm 1981-2010 144.3mm)

In summary the rainfall wasn't bad but the actual type I envisaged was way milder in reality. One for the bin I think!

In message ,
Scott W writes
On Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 9:20:16 AM UTC, Scott W wrote:
It's that time of year again. I reckon my region of east London and
Essex is in for a winter over 1C below average with average to
slightly below precipitation.

To be reviewed on March 1st along with possible helpings of humble
pie and egg on face
https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/...ter-forecast-2
01617/

Forecast mean: 4.2C (result: 5.5C)
Forecast rain: 'slightly below' (result: 126.9mm 1981-2010 144.3mm)

In summary the rainfall wasn't bad but the actual type I envisaged was
way milder in reality. One for the bin I think!

If only December and February had been like January you'd have been
spot-on.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)