In article ,
Howard Neil writes:

On 13/03/2010 22:45, James Brown wrote:
I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period, such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James

I go for c). For me, this winter was much more severe than 1962. I was
then living on the outskirts of London. Speaking to locals, they say it
was similar to 1962 (although I am not too sure about their memories).


Their memories - and I'm afraid yours - are almost certainly unreliable.
In the SE generally, 1962-3 was far colder and snowier than this winter
has been. In my part of Surrey, we had snow cover continuously from late
on Boxing Day until March 1st. OK, we aren't quite "outskirts of
London", but I don't believe that it was substantially different there.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

In message , Lawrence
Jenkins writes

"Jim Kewley" wrote in message
...
In message , Lawrence Jenkins
writes

Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming
once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.



Ah the group idiot resurfaces. What's up is alt.rightwinglosers quiet?

Out of touch with fashion? You're just out of touch, full stop.
--


Jim

You are just 'touched' in the head I believe. All that IOM inbreeding I
would guess. How's your uncle has she got over that flu yet?



It would appear that living in SE England makes you feel superior.

You're even more of a loser than I imagined.
--


Jim

Martin Rowley wrote:

"Bonos Ego" ...
It's always a bad idea to base a winter on past memories, because I
would have said that the winter of 1978-79 was colder than this winter
here in South Devon!

But guess what, surprise, surprise when I checked the data for Exeter
Airport, available from 1973
http://www.tutiempo.net/clima/Exeter...1979/38390.htm


snip

... I would be very wary of using that source to base such conclusions as
this upon. I have noted before in this ng that that site is unreliable - I've
just checked the Hurn data for February gone for example, and whereas I can
reconcile some of the data in their list against my log (which I extract
daily), for others there is no rhyme or reason to the entries. The data jumps
about - sometimes logging the exact value, sometimes the value but slightly
different to entered (by 0.1degC), sometimes to the nearest whole degC, and a
selection (2 maxima, at least 5 minima) that bear no relation to the reported
data.

I'm not challenging your conclusion - it's just that I wouldn't use that site
to support it!

Martin.


I'd go along with that, Martin. It's certainly not to be relied on. Similarly,
I've had some issues with the historical data on the WeatherOnline site.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

On Mar 13, 10:45*pm, James Brown
wrote:
I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period, such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown

Not an expert but I'd have said c). Seemed to be just that the weather
patterns were such that it caused what it caused - just like say
summer 2007.
As I've said already, it stands out as far as the past 20 years go in
this part of southern England, but would be pretty average for the
80s.

Nick

"John Hall" wrote ...
snip

I'm confused. You seem to be talking about Hurn Airport, whereas
Bonos
Ego was talking about Exeter Airport.
--
John Hall


.... I'm simply pointing out that the data stored on that site is
unreliable: I check routinely against Hurn (hence my mention of that
station), but I've also had occasion to check Heathrow for example -
same problems.

My *strong* advice is to NOT use that site, *unless* you have a second
source to check against. Like many sources on the internet, although
it looks 'wonderful' and the answer to all prayers, great care should
be taken before slavishly using the data. Wikipedia is a prime example
:-(

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

On 14 Mar, 09:07, John Hall wrote:

Only that we don't know yet. If we get two or three more cold winters in
the next five years, then we'll incline towards (b). Mind you, (a) and
(b) need not be mutually exclusive. Since 2009-10 was colder, if you
take the average temperature over the three months, than the cold
winters of the 1980s, it could turn out that both (a) and (b) are true.

I am in the "b" camp. I don't think the magnitude of warming is enough
to influence a) particularly much - yet.

Why "b"? We haven't had the prolonged roaring westerlies of the late
80s and 90s at all in recent years, something that is backed up by
Philip's flow indices:

http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/03.htm

Richard

On 15 Mar, 09:31, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"John Hall" wrote ...
snip



I'm confused. You seem to be talking about Hurn Airport, whereas
Bonos
Ego was talking about Exeter Airport.
--
John Hall

... I'm simply pointing out that the data stored on that site is
unreliable: I check routinely against Hurn (hence my mention of that
station), but I've also had occasion to check Heathrow for example -
same problems.

My *strong* advice is to NOT use that site, *unless* you have a second
source to check against. Like many sources on the internet, although
it looks 'wonderful' and the answer to all prayers, great care should
be taken before slavishly using the data. Wikipedia is a prime example
:-(

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Martin,

Having looked in more detail at the data from said website there does
appear to be some holes in their data so, I agree with you, use my
assumptions from the data with caution.

It would be great if someone that had access to the more reliable data
held at the Met Office could confirm whether this past Winter has been
colder in South Devon (Exeter Airport or, better still Teignmouth
weather station) than the Winter of 1978-9.

Regards,

BonosEgo

"Bonos Ego" wrote ...

It would be great if someone that had access to the more reliable
data
held at the Met Office could confirm whether this past Winter has
been
colder in South Devon (Exeter Airport or, better still Teignmouth
weather station) than the Winter of 1978-9.


.... can't comment upon that - but to throw another mighty spanner
around, I had a look at the mean monthly thickness (1000-500 hPa)
values over the winters 1978/79 & 2009/10 overhead Exeter:-

For 1978/79, the three-month mean over that slice of the troposphere
was:-
5352 m

For 2009/10, the three-month mean over the same slice was:-
5328 m

On the face of it then, the lowest 5.5km (roughly) of the atmosphere
over this winter just finished was *colder* than that during 1978/79,
by some 2.5 dam (represents roughly
-1degC meaned throughout the layer)

And, when you use a point in the 'middle' of England (roughly
mid-point within the CET triangle), the following comes out:

For 1978/79: 533 dam
For 2009/10: 531 dam
[ I've only got the data logged to the nearest dam ]

.... so both for a point over Exeter and the English Midlands, the
total thickness this winter just gone was lower than that in 1978/79.

[data from ESRL site ... obviously caveat must apply that they've got
the data/algorithms it right! ]

There isn't a closely direct relationship between mean thickness and
temperature at the surface [ there is an approximate one of course],
so I can't push this too far, but assuming the data are correct, then
on average, the lower-tropospheric air winter 2009/10 was colder than
during 1978/79.

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023