I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period, such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown

Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years. What
a plank you are.




"James Brown" wrote in message
...
I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the
GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period,
such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown

On Mar 14, 12:39*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years. What
a plank you are.

"James Brown" wrote in message

...



I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the
GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period,
such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has
not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw
man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected.

"RWood" wrote in message
...
On Mar 14, 12:39 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate
has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years.
What
a plank you are.

"James Brown" wrote in message

...



I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the
GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period,
such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has
not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw
man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected.

Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.

On 14/03/2010 00:39, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
wrote in message
...
On Mar 14, 12:39 pm, "Lawrence wrote:
Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate
has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years.
What
a plank you are.

"James wrote in message

...



I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the
GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period,
such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has
not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw
man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected.

Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.

The Secretary of State for Justice?
A relative of The Wicker Man?
;-)

In message , Lawrence
Jenkins writes

Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.



Ah the group idiot resurfaces. What's up is alt.rightwinglosers quiet?

Out of touch with fashion? You're just out of touch, full stop.
--


Jim

On 14 Mar, 04:05, Jim Kewley wrote:
In message , Lawrence
Jenkins writes



Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.

Ah the group idiot resurfaces.

Ad hominem attacks to a troll?
Snipped.

The question's answer does poke up a formal list of...
Well, he
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

Personally the one about a solution fitting most conditions IS the
most likely if it works. (Conjunction Fallacy.)

To answer the OP.
The problem with all tenure about the recent weather is compounded by
needing answers that are not required: Base rate fallacy

The noble art of using weak evidence to make a probability judgement
without taking into account known empirical statistics about the
probability.

Climate and weather prediction is all about probability whereas
nomenclature about times past isn't.

Or not, as the case might be.

"Jim Kewley" wrote in message
...
In message , Lawrence Jenkins
writes

Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming
once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.



Ah the group idiot resurfaces. What's up is alt.rightwinglosers quiet?

Out of touch with fashion? You're just out of touch, full stop.
--


Jim

You are just 'touched' in the head I believe. All that IOM inbreeding I
would guess. How's your uncle has she got over that flu yet?

In article ,
James Brown writes:
I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period, such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Only that we don't know yet. If we get two or three more cold winters in
the next five years, then we'll incline towards (b). Mind you, (a) and
(b) need not be mutually exclusive. Since 2009-10 was colder, if you
take the average temperature over the three months, than the cold
winters of the 1980s, it could turn out that both (a) and (b) are true.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On 14 Mar, 09:07, John Hall wrote:

Only that we don't know yet. If we get two or three more cold winters in
the next five years, then we'll incline towards (b). Mind you, (a) and
(b) need not be mutually exclusive. Since 2009-10 was colder, if you
take the average temperature over the three months, than the cold
winters of the 1980s, it could turn out that both (a) and (b) are true.

I am in the "b" camp. I don't think the magnitude of warming is enough
to influence a) particularly much - yet.

Why "b"? We haven't had the prolonged roaring westerlies of the late
80s and 90s at all in recent years, something that is backed up by
Philip's flow indices:

http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/03.htm

Richard