Winter in context - help me decide
 

Even during the "classic" winters there's a great deal of
significant local
variation. During the 1962/63 winter I was working at
Prestwick Airport,
commuting 30 miles by motorbike from Largs. There was very
little snow during
that winter and it wasn't especially frosty. The notable
feature of the winter
for a motorbike commuter was that it was very dry in that part
of the country.
From my point of view that winter was something that happened
elsewhere.
Norman Lynagh

I remember 1962-63 as epecially snowy, because there was so much
snow lying on the playing fields at school that we could not
play hockey or lacrosse, and instead went for walks and
sledging - a very much pleasanter alternative. That was at St
Andrews.

Also, I first went skiing on Cairngorm in January 1964, when
there was very little snow and we had to trek miles up across
the heather to find a patch of snow big enough to do a single
turn on. In the evenings, the ski school added insult to injury
by showing us films taken the previous winter of the ski road
with snow walls either side higher than the buses, and people
actually skiing down and jumping across the road with traffic
passing below. (I bet elfansafety would have quite a lot to say
about that these days, if they're not too busy forbidding
emergency teams to rescue people in mine shafts.)

Which just goes to back up Norman's point about significant
local variation.

Anne

Winter in context - help me decide
 

I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period, such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown

Winter in context - help me decide
 

Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years. What
a plank you are.




"James Brown" wrote in message
...
I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the
GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period,
such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown

Winter in context - help me decide
 

On Mar 14, 12:39*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years. What
a plank you are.

"James Brown" wrote in message

...



I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the
GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period,
such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has
not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw
man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected.

Winter in context - help me decide
 

"RWood" wrote in message
...
On Mar 14, 12:39 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate
has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years.
What
a plank you are.

"James Brown" wrote in message

...



I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the
GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period,
such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has
not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw
man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected.

Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.

Winter in context - help me decide
 

On 14/03/2010 00:39, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
wrote in message
...
On Mar 14, 12:39 pm, "Lawrence wrote:
Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate
has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years.
What
a plank you are.

"James wrote in message

...



I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the
GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period,
such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has
not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw
man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected.

Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.

The Secretary of State for Justice?
A relative of The Wicker Man?
;-)

Winter in context - help me decide
 

In message , Lawrence
Jenkins writes

Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.



Ah the group idiot resurfaces. What's up is alt.rightwinglosers quiet?

Out of touch with fashion? You're just out of touch, full stop.
--


Jim

Winter in context - help me decide
 

On 14 Mar, 04:05, Jim Kewley wrote:
In message , Lawrence
Jenkins writes



Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once
was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion.

Ah the group idiot resurfaces.

Ad hominem attacks to a troll?
Snipped.

The question's answer does poke up a formal list of...
Well, he
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

Personally the one about a solution fitting most conditions IS the
most likely if it works. (Conjunction Fallacy.)

To answer the OP.
The problem with all tenure about the recent weather is compounded by
needing answers that are not required: Base rate fallacy

The noble art of using weak evidence to make a probability judgement
without taking into account known empirical statistics about the
probability.

Climate and weather prediction is all about probability whereas
nomenclature about times past isn't.

Or not, as the case might be.

Winter in context - help me decide
 

In article ,
James Brown writes:
I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period, such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Only that we don't know yet. If we get two or three more cold winters in
the next five years, then we'll incline towards (b). Mind you, (a) and
(b) need not be mutually exclusive. Since 2009-10 was colder, if you
take the average temperature over the three months, than the cold
winters of the 1980s, it could turn out that both (a) and (b) are true.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

Winter in context - help me decide
 

On 13/03/2010 22:45, James Brown wrote:
I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:

a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by
the GW climatic change - hence not so severe.

b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter
period, such as the 80's e.g.

c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without
implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling.

I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b)

Any thoughts?

Cheers,
James

I go for c). For me, this winter was much more severe than 1962. I was
then living on the outskirts of London. Speaking to locals, they say it
was similar to 1962 (although I am not too sure about their memories).

--
Howard Neil