It now seems unlikely that the CET of this month will be any higher than
1.0C and it could well be quite a bit lower than that. I decided to see
how it might rank amongst cold Decembers of the past. Here are the
coldest Decembers in the CET record:

1890 -0.8
1676 -0.5
1788 -0.3
1796 -0.3
1878 -0.3
1874 -0.2
1784 0.3
1981 0.3
1844 0.4
1673 0.5
1678 0.5
1683 0.5
1846 0.5
1870 0.6
1879 0.7
1680 1.0

Should this December manage to beat 1981, then it will be the coldest
since 1890. The number of cold Decembers at the end of the 17th century
isn't surprising, but the number in the 1870s is interesting. 1870,
1874, 1878 and 1879 were all cold (and of course 1890 was the coldest of
all).

Incidentally, the calendar year 2010 is now certain to have the lowest
CET since at least 1996, and could well be the coldest since 1986:

http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Dec 19, 6:13*pm, John Hall wrote:
It now seems unlikely that the CET of this month will be any higher than
1.0C and it could well be quite a bit lower than that. I decided to see
how it might rank amongst cold Decembers of the past. Here are the
coldest Decembers in the CET record:

1890 * *-0.8
1676 * *-0.5
1788 * *-0.3
1796 * *-0.3
1878 * *-0.3
1874 * *-0.2
1784 * * 0.3
1981 * * 0.3
1844 * * 0.4
1673 * * 0.5
1678 * * 0.5
1683 * * 0.5
1846 * * 0.5
1870 * * 0.6
1879 * * 0.7
1680 * * 1.0

Should this December manage to beat 1981, then it will be the coldest
since 1890. The number of cold Decembers at the end of the 17th century
isn't surprising, but the number in the 1870s is interesting. 1870,
1874, 1878 and 1879 were all cold (and of course 1890 was the coldest of
all).

Incidentally, the calendar year 2010 is now certain to have the lowest
CET since at least 1996, and could well be the coldest since 1986:

All very interesting reading.

Am hoping that those in the "climatological know" might try and
understand why we're more blocked of late which obviously contributes
to this cold - or whether it's still seen just as natural variability
enough not to warrant research on the last few (2 in particular)
winters.

Richard

On 19/12/2010 18:27, in article
, "Richard
Dixon" wrote:

On Dec 19, 6:13*pm, John Hall wrote:
It now seems unlikely that the CET of this month will be any higher than
1.0C and it could well be quite a bit lower than that. I decided to see
how it might rank amongst cold Decembers of the past. Here are the
coldest Decembers in the CET record:

1890 * *-0.8
1676 * *-0.5
1788 * *-0.3
1796 * *-0.3
1878 * *-0.3
1874 * *-0.2
1784 * * 0.3
1981 * * 0.3
1844 * * 0.4
1673 * * 0.5
1678 * * 0.5
1683 * * 0.5
1846 * * 0.5
1870 * * 0.6
1879 * * 0.7
1680 * * 1.0

Should this December manage to beat 1981, then it will be the coldest
since 1890. The number of cold Decembers at the end of the 17th century
isn't surprising, but the number in the 1870s is interesting. 1870,
1874, 1878 and 1879 were all cold (and of course 1890 was the coldest of
all).

Incidentally, the calendar year 2010 is now certain to have the lowest
CET since at least 1996, and could well be the coldest since 1986:

All very interesting reading.

Am hoping that those in the "climatological know" might try and
understand why we're more blocked of late which obviously contributes
to this cold - or whether it's still seen just as natural variability
enough not to warrant research on the last few (2 in particular)
winters.

There is evidence that blocking in Northern Europe is related to the sunspot
cycle.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/...g-with-the-sun.
html?full=true

--
Chris H,
He's predictable, but that's to be expected.

On Dec 19, 6:13*pm, John Hall wrote:
It now seems unlikely that the CET of this month will be any higher than
1.0C and it could well be quite a bit lower than that. I decided to see
how it might rank amongst cold Decembers of the past.

I'm not sure how far north you have to travel from the CET area to
reach area's that are likely to challenge or surpass December 1890 for
severity.
The average temperature at my site for December, halfway between
Edinburgh and Glasgow is currently -3.5ºC. This looks likely to fall
further in the coming week. I imagine both cities must be knocking on
the door of their coldest month EVER recorded.

Alex.

In article
,
Alex Stephens writes:
On Dec 19, 6:13*pm, John Hall wrote:
It now seems unlikely that the CET of this month will be any higher than
1.0C and it could well be quite a bit lower than that. I decided to see
how it might rank amongst cold Decembers of the past.

I'm not sure how far north you have to travel from the CET area to
reach area's that are likely to challenge or surpass December 1890 for
severity.
The average temperature at my site for December, halfway between
Edinburgh and Glasgow is currently -3.5ºC. This looks likely to fall
further in the coming week. I imagine both cities must be knocking on
the door of their coldest month EVER recorded.

That really is remarkable. ISTR reading in Manley's "Climate and the
British Scene" that Carlisle (I think) had recorded a monthly mean of
-4C in January 1795, and that so long as Britain remained an island
surrounded by unfrozen seas that was about as low a monthly mean as one
could get.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Dec 19, 6:13*pm, John Hall wrote:
It now seems unlikely that the CET of this month will be any higher than
1.0C and it could well be quite a bit lower than that. I decided to see
how it might rank amongst cold Decembers of the past. Here are the
coldest Decembers in the CET record:

1890 * *-0.8
1676 * *-0.5
1788 * *-0.3
1796 * *-0.3
1878 * *-0.3
1874 * *-0.2
1784 * * 0.3
1981 * * 0.3
1844 * * 0.4
1673 * * 0.5
1678 * * 0.5
1683 * * 0.5
1846 * * 0.5
1870 * * 0.6
1879 * * 0.7
1680 * * 1.0

Should this December manage to beat 1981, then it will be the coldest
since 1890. The number of cold Decembers at the end of the 17th century
isn't surprising, but the number in the 1870s is interesting. 1870,
1874, 1878 and 1879 were all cold (and of course 1890 was the coldest of
all).

Incidentally, the calendar year 2010 is now certain to have the lowest
CET since at least 1996, and could well be the coldest since 1986:

http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * * "I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
* * * * * * * * *will hardly mind anything else."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

My own guess is the the December CET will be below 0°C and may
even challenge the 1890 figure. The mean here so far is -0.6°C and
there is no obvious reason why anywhere in the CET area should be any
higher.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Sun, 19 Dec 2010 14:08:09 -0800 (PST), Tudor Hughes wrote:

On Dec 19, 6:13*pm, John Hall wrote:
It now seems unlikely that the CET of this month will be any higher than
1.0C and it could well be quite a bit lower than that. I decided to see
how it might rank amongst cold Decembers of the past. Here are the
coldest Decembers in the CET record:

1890 * *-0.8
1676 * *-0.5
1788 * *-0.3
1796 * *-0.3
1878 * *-0.3
1874 * *-0.2
1784 * * 0.3
1981 * * 0.3
1844 * * 0.4
1673 * * 0.5
1678 * * 0.5
1683 * * 0.5
1846 * * 0.5
1870 * * 0.6
1879 * * 0.7
1680 * * 1.0

Should this December manage to beat 1981, then it will be the coldest
since 1890. The number of cold Decembers at the end of the 17th century
isn't surprising, but the number in the 1870s is interesting. 1870,
1874, 1878 and 1879 were all cold (and of course 1890 was the coldest of
all).

Incidentally, the calendar year 2010 is now certain to have the lowest
CET since at least 1996, and could well be the coldest since 1986:

http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * * "I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
* * * * * * * * *will hardly mind anything else."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

My own guess is the the December CET will be below 0°C and may
even challenge the 1890 figure. The mean here so far is -0.6°C and
there is no obvious reason why anywhere in the CET area should be any
higher.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

The mean here is currently 0.1°C up to yesterday morning, it's now below
that figure as the mean today was -3.5°C. To challenge the 1890 figure the
cold air probably needs to hang on beyond Christmas.

Alan Gardiner
Chiswell Green, St Albans
101m ASL
19/12/2010 22:30:32
https://sites.google.com/site/alangardinersinfo/

In article
,
Tudor Hughes writes:
My own guess is the the December CET will be below 0°C and may
even challenge the 1890 figure. The mean here so far is -0.6°C and
there is no obvious reason why anywhere in the CET area should be any
higher.

According to Philip Eden's site, it's currently (up to and including the
19th) about -0.5C:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/201012.htm
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)