Lots of significant development likely over the next week or more. I
see that the 12z run of the German ICON model predicts a low centre of
918mb at about 59N 20W at 12z next Tuesday. One to watch!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On 20/10/2020 20:17, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Lots of significant development likely over the next week or more. I
see that the 12z run of the German ICON model predicts a low centre of
918mb at about 59N 20W at 12z next Tuesday. One to watch!


Storm Epsillon ?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/191205.shtml?
track projected on to our neck of the woods

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 20/10/2020 20:21, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/10/2020 20:17, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Lots of significant development likely over the next week or more. I
see that the 12z run of the German ICON model predicts a low centre of
918mb at about 59N 20W at 12z next Tuesday. One to watch!


Storm Epsillon ?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/191205.shtml?
track projected on to our neck of the woods


NOAA NWW3 0Z is giving 18m sig wave heights west of the UK for
ex-hurricane Epsilon then, and 12m for the Channel Approaches, just as
well its neap tides then.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

N_Cook wrote:

On 20/10/2020 20:21, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/10/2020 20:17, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Lots of significant development likely over the next week or
more. I see that the 12z run of the German ICON model predicts a
low centre of 918mb at about 59N 20W at 12z next Tuesday. One to
watch!


Storm Epsillon ?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../191205.shtml?
track projected on to our neck of the woods


NOAA NWW3 0Z is giving 18m sig wave heights west of the UK for
ex-hurricane Epsilon then, and 12m for the Channel Approaches, just
as well its neap tides then.

It won't happen, but one of the members of yesterday's 12z GFS ensemble
predicted the central pressure getting down to 888mb early next week.
The joys of NWP!!!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On Tuesday, October 20, 2020 at 8:17:18 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Lots of significant development likely over the next week or more. I
see that the 12z run of the German ICON model predicts a low centre of
918mb at about 59N 20W at 12z next Tuesday. One to watch!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Quite looking forward to a bit of excitement, and great to see a deep depression sitting in the mid Atlantic. (I'd probably have a rather different view if I was on a weather ship, and I certainly don't wish anybody any harm) I've almost forgot what a really big swell looks like! The only notable sea for months was in August, and that was a bit lacklustre, removed loads of sand though.

The sand level at Sennen now is higher than it was all summer, the recent low energy, short period, swells have really brought it in.

Could be a particularly big surfable wave on the north Cornish coast if the forecast charts are anything like correct. Tides might be rather too small for a really good wave on the Cribbar at Newquay, which is a low tide spot..

Graham
Penzance (17.2C yesterday)

On 21/10/2020 09:42, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 20/10/2020 20:21, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/10/2020 20:17, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Lots of significant development likely over the next week or
more. I see that the 12z run of the German ICON model predicts a
low centre of 918mb at about 59N 20W at 12z next Tuesday. One to
watch!


Storm Epsillon ?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../191205.shtml?
track projected on to our neck of the woods


NOAA NWW3 0Z is giving 18m sig wave heights west of the UK for
ex-hurricane Epsilon then, and 12m for the Channel Approaches, just
as well its neap tides then.

It won't happen, but one of the members of yesterday's 12z GFS ensemble
predicted the central pressure getting down to 888mb early next week.
The joys of NWP!!!


The projected Epsilon intensity multi-modal ensemble
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al272020_late_inten.png
and tracks
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al272020_late.png
don't look too dramatic, currently, for the UK

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 21/10/2020 08:53, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/10/2020 20:21, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/10/2020 20:17, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Lots of significant development likely over the next week or more. I
see that the 12z run of the German ICON model predicts a low centre of
918mb at about 59N 20W at 12z next Tuesday. One to watch!


Storm Epsillon ?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/191205.shtml?
track projected on to our neck of the woods


NOAA NWW3 0Z is giving 18m sig wave heights west of the UK for
ex-hurricane Epsilon then, and 12m for the Channel Approaches, just as
well its neap tides then.


Even big-boy ECNWF is having a me-too moment, about 926mB minimum on 27 Oct

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Courtesy of NHC I learnt a new word.
Sort of exagerated trochoidal falter rather than the previous concensus
large looping track diversion to Greenland, concensus now heading more
direct/earlier for the UK
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al272020_late.png
and intensity
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al272020_late.png

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 23/10/2020 15:30, N_Cook wrote:
Courtesy of NHC I learnt a new word.
Sort of exagerated trochoidal falter rather than the previous concensus
large looping track diversion to Greenland, concensus now heading more
direct/earlier for the UK
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al272020_late.png
and intensity
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al272020_late.png


NOAA HWRF the first to track the centre of ex-Epsilon over a bit of the
UK, 84 hours out
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al272020_late.png

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm