I see that the GFS model predicts hurricane 'Irma' to be 909 mb, centred over
the western Atlantic to SE of Long Island at 0000z on Sun 10th Sep. At the same
time, the ECMWF model predicts it to be an intense hurricane centred over
western Cuba. No matter how it does actually evolve it's certainly one to watch
over the next 10-14 days. Currently (0600z Thu 31st Aug) 'Irma' is a Tropical
Storm centred near 16°N 32°W with a central pressure of 999 mb and max
sustained winds of 55 knots.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On 31/08/2017 09:30, Norman Lynagh wrote:
I see that the GFS model predicts hurricane 'Irma' to be 909 mb, centred over
the western Atlantic to SE of Long Island at 0000z on Sun 10th Sep. At the same
time, the ECMWF model predicts it to be an intense hurricane centred over
western Cuba. No matter how it does actually evolve it's certainly one to watch
over the next 10-14 days. Currently (0600z Thu 31st Aug) 'Irma' is a Tropical
Storm centred near 16°N 32°W with a central pressure of 999 mb and max
sustained winds of 55 knots.


Go back a couple of days, TS10 has dropped out of NHC outputted
considerations, you've probably misinterpreted its remnants as Irma
Interestingly the then TS10 5 day track had the UK in its sights just
like Gert , the one before Harvey

On 31/08/17 09:58, N_Cook wrote:
On 31/08/2017 09:30, Norman Lynagh wrote:
I see that the GFS model predicts hurricane 'Irma' to be 909 mb,
centred over
the western Atlantic to SE of Long Island at 0000z on Sun 10th Sep. At
the same
time, the ECMWF model predicts it to be an intense hurricane centred over
western Cuba. No matter how it does actually evolve it's certainly one
to watch
over the next 10-14 days. Currently (0600z Thu 31st Aug) 'Irma' is a
Tropical
Storm centred near 16°N 32°W with a central pressure of 999 mb and max
sustained winds of 55 knots.


Go back a couple of days, TS10 has dropped out of NHC outputted
considerations, you've probably misinterpreted its remnants as Irma
Interestingly the then TS10 5 day track had the UK in its sights just
like Gert , the one before Harvey


No, 'TS10' is already way past Long Island. Norman definitely is
referring to Irma. Try following it on wxcharts.eu.



--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

I like to follow Irma on windyty
https://www.windy.com/?gfs,2017-09-0....580,-52.910,5

Here you can see its forecast track according to ECMWF 9 km and GFS 22 km.

The former has it hitting Cuba by 9 Sep
The latter has a more northerly track heading for the east coast USA mainland.


Len
Wembury

Graham P Davis wrote:

On 31/08/17 09:58, N_Cook wrote:
On 31/08/2017 09:30, Norman Lynagh wrote:
I see that the GFS model predicts hurricane 'Irma' to be 909 mb, centred
over the western Atlantic to SE of Long Island at 0000z on Sun 10th Sep.
At the same time, the ECMWF model predicts it to be an intense hurricane
centred over western Cuba. No matter how it does actually evolve it's
certainly one to watch over the next 10-14 days. Currently (0600z Thu
31st Aug) 'Irma' is a Tropical Storm centred near 16°N 32°W with a
central pressure of 999 mb and max sustained winds of 55 knots.


Go back a couple of days, TS10 has dropped out of NHC outputted
considerations, you've probably misinterpreted its remnants as Irma
Interestingly the then TS10 5 day track had the UK in its sights just like
Gert , the one before Harvey


No, 'TS10' is already way past Long Island. Norman definitely is referring to
Irma. Try following it on wxcharts.eu.

Yes, 'Irma' is 11L, currently west of the Cape Verde Islands. There's all sorts
of good stuff about it (and other current storms) at

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/index.php

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On Thursday, 31 August 2017 16:50:26 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On 31/08/17 09:58, N_Cook wrote:
On 31/08/2017 09:30, Norman Lynagh wrote:
I see that the GFS model predicts hurricane 'Irma' to be 909 mb, centred
over the western Atlantic to SE of Long Island at 0000z on Sun 10th Sep.
At the same time, the ECMWF model predicts it to be an intense hurricane
centred over western Cuba. No matter how it does actually evolve it's
certainly one to watch over the next 10-14 days. Currently (0600z Thu
31st Aug) 'Irma' is a Tropical Storm centred near 16°N 32°W with a
central pressure of 999 mb and max sustained winds of 55 knots.


Go back a couple of days, TS10 has dropped out of NHC outputted
considerations, you've probably misinterpreted its remnants as Irma
Interestingly the then TS10 5 day track had the UK in its sights just like
Gert , the one before Harvey


No, 'TS10' is already way past Long Island. Norman definitely is referring to
Irma. Try following it on wxcharts.eu.

Yes, 'Irma' is 11L, currently west of the Cape Verde Islands. There's all sorts
of good stuff about it (and other current storms) at

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/index.php

I can also recommend the excellent tropicaltidbits.com - some really superb stuff here, a real one-stop shop.

Imagine Irma will be a major hurricane fairly soon...

Richard

Its already been a cat 1 for a while now - its put on 50 knots in less than 24 hours.

Not to be outdone, GEM seems to think we'll have our own hurricane in 9
days time, coming from the north, well 955mB for Sept anyway.
With jet in place for cyclogenesis, almost the highest spring tides then
for good measure.

In message , N_Cook
writes
Not to be outdone, GEM seems to think we'll have our own hurricane in 9
days time, coming from the north, well 955mB for Sept anyway.
With jet in place for cyclogenesis, almost the highest spring tides
then for good measure.

Great! I'm leaving from Southampton on a cruise on the 10th. I won't get
worried until/unless GFS and ECMWF start forecasting the same thing,
though.
--
John Hall
"Three o'clock is always too late or too early
for anything you want to do."
Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)

On 01/09/2017 19:26, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook writes
Not to be outdone, GEM seems to think we'll have our own hurricane in
9 days time, coming from the north, well 955mB for Sept anyway.
With jet in place for cyclogenesis, almost the highest spring tides
then for good measure.

Great! I'm leaving from Southampton on a cruise on the 10th. I won't get
worried until/unless GFS and ECMWF start forecasting the same thing,
though.

Perhaps you'll have to suffer the delights of being windbound in Soton
for a day.
I'll be sending an advisory today to the local Southampton "Belsize"
marine flooding group, for 9 to 11 Sept.
Top 15% astronomic tide regime then +
Although GEM has knocked back to 960mB , Reading is giving 985mB for 11
Sep and GFS going for locally wind-enhanced 980mB on the 9th , with
sustained 45mph in the English Channel.
If still agitated prediction for that period, on this evenings outputs
I'll run my surge widget , to see what that southern edge wind
enhancement and sea-surface wind-stress throws up.