On 01/09/2017 19:26, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook writes
Not to be outdone, GEM seems to think we'll have our own hurricane in
9 days time, coming from the north, well 955mB for Sept anyway.
With jet in place for cyclogenesis, almost the highest spring tides
then for good measure.

Great! I'm leaving from Southampton on a cruise on the 10th. I won't get
worried until/unless GFS and ECMWF start forecasting the same thing,
though.

Perhaps you'll have to suffer the delights of being windbound in Soton
for a day.
I'll be sending an advisory today to the local Southampton "Belsize"
marine flooding group, for 9 to 11 Sept.
Top 15% astronomic tide regime then +
Although GEM has knocked back to 960mB , Reading is giving 985mB for 11
Sep and GFS going for locally wind-enhanced 980mB on the 9th , with
sustained 45mph in the English Channel.
If still agitated prediction for that period, on this evenings outputs
I'll run my surge widget , to see what that southern edge wind
enhancement and sea-surface wind-stress throws up.

On 02/09/2017 09:01, N_Cook wrote:
On 01/09/2017 19:26, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook
writes
Not to be outdone, GEM seems to think we'll have our own hurricane in
9 days time, coming from the north, well 955mB for Sept anyway.
With jet in place for cyclogenesis, almost the highest spring tides
then for good measure.

Great! I'm leaving from Southampton on a cruise on the 10th. I won't get
worried until/unless GFS and ECMWF start forecasting the same thing,
though.

Perhaps you'll have to suffer the delights of being windbound in Soton
for a day.
I'll be sending an advisory today to the local Southampton "Belsize"
marine flooding group, for 9 to 11 Sept.
Top 15% astronomic tide regime then +
Although GEM has knocked back to 960mB , Reading is giving 985mB for 11
Sep and GFS going for locally wind-enhanced 980mB on the 9th , with
sustained 45mph in the English Channel.
If still agitated prediction for that period, on this evenings outputs
I'll run my surge widget , to see what that southern edge wind
enhancement and sea-surface wind-stress throws up.

local advisory sent out for 0.7m surge on the 4.7m 13:44 Soton tide of
09 Sep, so 5.4m tide. Spot of sustained 50mph wind in the Eng channel
Local history of extreme tides
Valentines day 2014 5.6m (and 10 Mar 2008 and 26 Dec 1999)
17 Dec 1989 5.7m
20 Dec 1983, 5.75m
27 Nov 1924, 6.0m