It seems to me that UKMO has come out smelling of roses recently when it comes to the medium range in weather forecasting.

Model output from ECMWF and GFS agreed that we were in for a cold spell of easterlies in their T+240 forecast recently. Well it did not happen.
UKMO kept quiet about any likely cold spell.
Well you might say, they don't make public their forecast beyond 5 or 6 days.
However, they are sure looking at their model output to T+240 nonetheless and would have said something if the output was deemed reliable at T+180.
No forecast of cold conditions was the correct forecast.

Something other than being just chickens was stopping them from relying on model output beyond T+180 in this synoptic setup. This is where experience of the dynamics and knowledge of model limitations come in to play.

So I give credit where credit's due.
Well done UKMO on this occasion. Tax payer's money well spent.
;-)

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
It seems to me that UKMO has come out smelling of roses recently when it
comes to the medium range in weather forecasting.

Model output from ECMWF and GFS agreed that we were in for a cold spell of
easterlies in their T+240 forecast recently. Well it did not happen.
UKMO kept quiet about any likely cold spell.
Well you might say, they don't make public their forecast beyond 5 or 6
days.

Not as a model run but they do issue a text forecast for the month ahead,
albeit laden with caveats & warnings regarding the accuracy of such
forecasts.

However, they are sure looking at their model output to T+240 nonetheless
and would have said something if the output was deemed reliable at T+180.
No forecast of cold conditions was the correct forecast.

Indeed it was.
The phantom cold spell never came closer than a week or so away though,
think it should have started last Thursday
There was much discussion on TWO as to why the Met Office hadn't updated
their forecast to reflect this but on this occaison they 'held their nerve'
and
didn't forecast cold. I suspect it was a close run thing though and in this
instance they called correct.


So I give credit where credit's due.
Well done UKMO on this occasion. Tax payer's money well spent.
;-)

You know that's going to wind Lawrence up, don't you
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 10:59:02 UTC, Col wrote:
"Len Wood" wrote in message

...

It seems to me that UKMO has come out smelling of roses recently when it

comes to the medium range in weather forecasting.



Model output from ECMWF and GFS agreed that we were in for a cold spell of

easterlies in their T+240 forecast recently. Well it did not happen.

UKMO kept quiet about any likely cold spell.

Well you might say, they don't make public their forecast beyond 5 or 6

days.



Not as a model run but they do issue a text forecast for the month ahead,

albeit laden with caveats & warnings regarding the accuracy of such

forecasts.



However, they are sure looking at their model output to T+240 nonetheless

and would have said something if the output was deemed reliable at T+180.

No forecast of cold conditions was the correct forecast.



Indeed it was.

The phantom cold spell never came closer than a week or so away though,

think it should have started last Thursday

There was much discussion on TWO as to why the Met Office hadn't updated

their forecast to reflect this but on this occaison they 'held their nerve'

and

didn't forecast cold. I suspect it was a close run thing though and in this

instance they called correct.





So I give credit where credit's due.

Well done UKMO on this occasion. Tax payer's money well spent.

;-)



You know that's going to wind Lawrence up, don't you

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg



Two words : BBQ Summers

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...


Two words : BBQ Summers

And you'll never let 'em forget it, will you?

That fiasco wasn't so much a forecast that went wrong but a
soundbite that was picked up by the media and spectacularly
blew up in the Met Office's face when everything went pear shaped.

Were it not for that, I'm sure that this ncorrect forecast would have
passed by pretty much un-noticed, as I'm sure other long range
forecasts must have, given that they are experimental and obviously
prone to innacuracies.

Besides it was a probabalistic forecast anyway, I think the chances
of the now infamous 'BBQ summer' were given as 75%, so a 25%
chance that it it *wouldn't* happen.

Not that any of that, plus their experimental nature meant anything
to the baying hounds of the media.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 13:48:36 UTC, Col wrote:
"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

...





Two words : BBQ Summers



And you'll never let 'em forget it, will you?



That fiasco wasn't so much a forecast that went wrong but a

soundbite that was picked up by the media and spectacularly

blew up in the Met Office's face when everything went pear shaped.



Were it not for that, I'm sure that this ncorrect forecast would have

passed by pretty much un-noticed, as I'm sure other long range

forecasts must have, given that they are experimental and obviously

prone to innacuracies.



Besides it was a probabalistic forecast anyway, I think the chances

of the now infamous 'BBQ summer' were given as 75%, so a 25%

chance that it it *wouldn't* happen.



Not that any of that, plus their experimental nature meant anything

to the baying hounds of the media.

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Okay Col how about this one?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...precip-AMJ.pdf

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...
Okay Col how about this one?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...precip-AMJ.pdf

What about it?

I have already acknowledged that these forecasts are prone to
innacuracies by their very nature.

However at least this one wasn't coupled with a soundbite the
media could latch itself onto, so I think this one largely passed the
general public by.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Saturday, January 18, 2014 10:44:26 AM UTC, Len Wood wrote:
It seems to me that UKMO has come out smelling of roses recently when it comes to the medium range in weather forecasting.



Model output from ECMWF and GFS agreed that we were in for a cold spell of easterlies in their T+240 forecast recently. Well it did not happen.

UKMO kept quiet about any likely cold spell.

Well you might say, they don't make public their forecast beyond 5 or 6 days.

However, they are sure looking at their model output to T+240 nonetheless and would have said something if the output was deemed reliable at T+180.

No forecast of cold conditions was the correct forecast.



Something other than being just chickens was stopping them from relying on model output beyond T+180 in this synoptic setup. This is where experience of the dynamics and knowledge of model limitations come in to play.



So I give credit where credit's due.

Well done UKMO on this occasion. Tax payer's money well spent.

;-)



Len Wood

Wembury, SW Devon

Just as I said too. They did very well, though it is a shame that they don't make their own model public, when the public effectively pay for it.

On Saturday, January 18, 2014 1:34:35 PM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Saturday, 18 January 2014 10:59:02 UTC, Col wrote:

"Len Wood" wrote in message



...



It seems to me that UKMO has come out smelling of roses recently when it



comes to the medium range in weather forecasting.







Model output from ECMWF and GFS agreed that we were in for a cold spell of



easterlies in their T+240 forecast recently. Well it did not happen.



UKMO kept quiet about any likely cold spell.



Well you might say, they don't make public their forecast beyond 5 or 6



days.







Not as a model run but they do issue a text forecast for the month ahead,



albeit laden with caveats & warnings regarding the accuracy of such



forecasts.







However, they are sure looking at their model output to T+240 nonetheless



and would have said something if the output was deemed reliable at T+180.



No forecast of cold conditions was the correct forecast.







Indeed it was.



The phantom cold spell never came closer than a week or so away though,



think it should have started last Thursday



There was much discussion on TWO as to why the Met Office hadn't updated



their forecast to reflect this but on this occaison they 'held their nerve'



and



didn't forecast cold. I suspect it was a close run thing though and in this



instance they called correct.











So I give credit where credit's due.



Well done UKMO on this occasion. Tax payer's money well spent.



;-)







You know that's going to wind Lawrence up, don't you



--



Col







Bolton, Lancashire



160m asl



Snow videos:



http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg







Two words : BBQ Summers

One word: idiot.

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 15:02:12 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, January 18, 2014 1:34:35 PM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 10:59:02 UTC, Col wrote:



"Len Wood" wrote in message







...







It seems to me that UKMO has come out smelling of roses recently when it







comes to the medium range in weather forecasting.















Model output from ECMWF and GFS agreed that we were in for a cold spell of







easterlies in their T+240 forecast recently. Well it did not happen.







UKMO kept quiet about any likely cold spell.







Well you might say, they don't make public their forecast beyond 5 or 6







days.















Not as a model run but they do issue a text forecast for the month ahead,







albeit laden with caveats & warnings regarding the accuracy of such







forecasts.















However, they are sure looking at their model output to T+240 nonetheless







and would have said something if the output was deemed reliable at T+180.







No forecast of cold conditions was the correct forecast.















Indeed it was.







The phantom cold spell never came closer than a week or so away though,







think it should have started last Thursday







There was much discussion on TWO as to why the Met Office hadn't updated







their forecast to reflect this but on this occaison they 'held their nerve'







and







didn't forecast cold. I suspect it was a close run thing though and in this







instance they called correct.























So I give credit where credit's due.







Well done UKMO on this occasion. Tax payer's money well spent.







;-)















You know that's going to wind Lawrence up, don't you







--







Col















Bolton, Lancashire







160m asl







Snow videos:







http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg















Two words : BBQ Summers



One word: idiot.

One word: ******.

and it scans better.

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

One word: ******.

and it scans better.

Several words: Can you two please refrain from wrecking yet another thread?
Thanks.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg