But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go the year. Don't any denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be happening, or you are likely to be savaged:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

On 18/05/2016 22:06, Dawlish wrote:
But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go the year. Don't any denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be happening, or you are likely to be savaged:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf


What I don't get is *how* El Nino can increase global temperatures?

The only source of heat input is the sun, and EN can't increase *its*
output, so where does the temperature rise come from??

--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 7:30:28 AM UTC+1, vidcapper wrote:
On 18/05/2016 22:06, Dawlish wrote:
But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go the year. Don't any denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be happening, or you are likely to be savaged:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf


What I don't get is *how* El Nino can increase global temperatures?

The only source of heat input is the sun, and EN can't increase *its*
output, so where does the temperature rise come from??

--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

It's only a temporary increase as the Equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than usual for a time. ENSO's overall effect on global temperatures is neutral..

However, if you compare like with like global temperatures over time during El Ninos and La NInas, they reflect the global warming trend. Hence why this El Nino has produced global temperatures much warmer than any previously recorded El Nino - the warming trend *may* be accelerating. There is a time lag of around 3-6 months before the cooling of the next ENSO neutral/La Nina phase of the oscillation is transferred to the atmosphere - why 2016 global temperatures are very likely to exceed the exceptional record set in 2015, even though much of the year is unlikely to see continuing El Nino conditions.

On Thu, 19 May 2016 07:30:25 +0100
Vidcapper wrote:

On 18/05/2016 22:06, Dawlish wrote:
But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go the year. Don't any
denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be
happening, or you are likely to be savaged:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf


What I don't get is *how* El Nino can increase global temperatures?

The only source of heat input is the sun, and EN can't increase *its*
output, so where does the temperature rise come from??



OK, a rough (very!) explanation:

In a La Nina year, the surface waters of the Pacific flow westwards
along the Equator. Along the coast of S America, this water has to be
replaced; some of it comes from the cold Humboldt current and some is
produced from the upwelling of deep cold water. So, during this part of
the cycle, the surface Equatorial water is cold and so the atmosphere
loses heat to it.

After a few years, warm water sloshes back from the western equatorial
Pacific as an El Nino and the atmosphere gains heat from this warmer
water.

I suppose the ENSO could be regarded as a sort of storage radiator,
taking in heat during a La Nina and then releasing it via an El Nino.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

On Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 9:04:58 AM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 19 May 2016 07:30:25 +0100
Vidcapper wrote:

On 18/05/2016 22:06, Dawlish wrote:
But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go the year. Don't any
denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be
happening, or you are likely to be savaged:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf


What I don't get is *how* El Nino can increase global temperatures?

The only source of heat input is the sun, and EN can't increase *its*
output, so where does the temperature rise come from??



OK, a rough (very!) explanation:

In a La Nina year, the surface waters of the Pacific flow westwards
along the Equator. Along the coast of S America, this water has to be
replaced; some of it comes from the cold Humboldt current and some is
produced from the upwelling of deep cold water. So, during this part of
the cycle, the surface Equatorial water is cold and so the atmosphere
loses heat to it.

After a few years, warm water sloshes back from the western equatorial
Pacific as an El Nino and the atmosphere gains heat from this warmer
water.

I suppose the ENSO could be regarded as a sort of storage radiator,
taking in heat during a La Nina and then releasing it via an El Nino.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Also, this oceanic storage of heat during La Nina, causes an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the reverse being the case during El Nino. So the rise in global atmospheric temperatures are out of step with sea level & sea temperature rise.

Graham
Penzanze - where it's dull & mizzly.

On Thursday, 19 May 2016 15:38:10 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 9:04:58 AM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 19 May 2016 07:30:25 +0100
Vidcapper wrote:

On 18/05/2016 22:06, Dawlish wrote:
But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go the year. Don't any
denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be
happening, or you are likely to be savaged:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf


What I don't get is *how* El Nino can increase global temperatures?

The only source of heat input is the sun, and EN can't increase *its*
output, so where does the temperature rise come from??



OK, a rough (very!) explanation:

In a La Nina year, the surface waters of the Pacific flow westwards
along the Equator. Along the coast of S America, this water has to be
replaced; some of it comes from the cold Humboldt current and some is
produced from the upwelling of deep cold water. So, during this part of
the cycle, the surface Equatorial water is cold and so the atmosphere
loses heat to it.

After a few years, warm water sloshes back from the western equatorial
Pacific as an El Nino and the atmosphere gains heat from this warmer
water.

I suppose the ENSO could be regarded as a sort of storage radiator,
taking in heat during a La Nina and then releasing it via an El Nino.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Also, this oceanic storage of heat during La Nina, causes an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the reverse being the case during El Nino. So the rise in global atmospheric temperatures are out of step with sea level & sea temperature rise.

I'm pleased to say I couldn't understand that. You were discussing a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1/2 to 1 degree in a collection of oceans whose overall temperatures is plus 2 degrees to minus 2 degrees.

So how is all this just the surface?

On Thursday, 19 May 2016 09:04:58 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 19 May 2016 07:30:25 +0100
Vidcapper wrote:

On 18/05/2016 22:06, Dawlish wrote:
But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go the year. Don't any
denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be
happening, or you are likely to be savaged:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf


What I don't get is *how* El Nino can increase global temperatures?

The only source of heat input is the sun, and EN can't increase *its*
output, so where does the temperature rise come from??



OK, a rough (very!) explanation:

In a La Nina year, the surface waters of the Pacific flow westwards
along the Equator. Along the coast of S America, this water has to be
replaced; some of it comes from the cold Humboldt current and some is
produced from the upwelling of deep cold water. So, during this part of
the cycle, the surface Equatorial water is cold and so the atmosphere
loses heat to it.

After a few years, warm water sloshes back from the western equatorial
Pacific as an El Nino and the atmosphere gains heat from this warmer
water.

I suppose the ENSO could be regarded as a sort of storage radiator,
taking in heat during a La Nina and then releasing it via an El Nino.

Massive supposition!
What made you think stoopid couldn't have supplied that information or is it another trick question?

I will of course leav the inadequacies to your dubious imagination.

On Thursday, 19 May 2016 07:30:28 UTC+1, vidcapper wrote:
On 18/05/2016 22:06, Dawlish wrote:
But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go the year. Don't any denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be happening, or you are likely to be savaged:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf


What I don't get is *how* El Nino can increase global temperatures?

The only source of heat input is the sun, and EN can't increase *its*
output, so where does the temperature rise come from??

Was that a trick question?
You seem to have made him introduce his own denial;

"It's only a temporary increase as the Equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than usual for a time. ENSO's overall effect on global temperatures is neutral"

So what exactly is the point of this thread, besides the comedy?

On Wednesday, 18 May 2016 22:06:51 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
But, La Nina conditions likely by the end go (of?) the year. Don't any denier link the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be happening, or you are likely to be savaged by a wet sheep:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Congrats, you made me laugh. Should I write ha ha ha ha or is that too sad to be believable or what?

Now to business:
Where do they get the data and what model is used and do you have any idea how reliable it is?
the colour chart of the SSTs go from 17 April 14 May. Do you have any idea what is keeping the temperature even during the day and night, where the currents are taking them and why.

And is there any reason that you haven't bothered to explain any of this, apart from the fact you spend most of your time with you head up your arse?

"During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average in the central Pacific and near-to-below average in the eastern Pacific.

Except in the southern hemisphere where the middle was above the average and rest was easily with half a degee of it what does this mean mean?

Is the facr that the rather spotty northern hemisphere east end a sign of anything rash?
I notice that at the very best of it there doen't seem to be anything to worry about for a sea surface. at no point was it more than one degree or so.

If you are not a wet sheep such temperatures are unlikely to bother you. Since you obviously are I suggest that you don't lie down on any steep slopes.. Oh hang on it is getting warmer isn't it (or not as the case may seem?) Wouldn't that improve things for you?

Now to the crux:
Can toy please explain the title?
It is still an el nino but it is declining rapidly so how is it doing that and what exactly does declining rapidly mean?

"the inevitable cooling to evidence that AGW can't be happening"

You what?
Does the attack sheep have false teeth?