The "chances rising" part comes from observing this on a regular basis. Slide 25 gives you the current probabilities, according to NOAA, but 2 months ago, the chances of an El Nino later this year were around 20%.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

An El Nino is highly likely to raise global temperatures to record values. Mind you, they are close to record values (Dec, UAH) ATM with ENSO neutral conditions having persisted for the best part of 3 years. It'll be interesting to see what effect the next El Nino has.

On Thursday, 9 January 2014 09:32:19 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
The "chances rising" part comes from observing this on a regular basis. Slide 25 gives you the current probabilities, according to NOAA, but 2 months ago, the chances of an El Nino later this year were around 20%.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf



An El Nino is highly likely to raise global temperatures to record values.. Mind you, they are close to record values (Dec, UAH) ATM with ENSO neutral conditions having persisted for the best part of 3 years. It'll be interesting to see what effect the next El Nino has.



You've been saying that for nigh on 18 months


"Dawlish

11/06/2012


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

.........and June really is looking very warm. The world is warming
very quickly from the double-dip, 2-year long La n
Nina:

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+002 "


You really don't have a clue what you're talking about, do you. But no doubt you won't learn any lessons and will carry on yapping the party line via copy & paste until eventually there will be an El Nino and then you'll claim some sort of glory. You are no better than these private publicity seeking weather companies.

On Thursday, January 9, 2014 8:54:30 PM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Thursday, 9 January 2014 09:32:19 UTC, Dawlish wrote:

The "chances rising" part comes from observing this on a regular basis. Slide 25 gives you the current probabilities, according to NOAA, but 2 months ago, the chances of an El Nino later this year were around 20%.







http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf







An El Nino is highly likely to raise global temperatures to record values. Mind you, they are close to record values (Dec, UAH) ATM with ENSO neutral conditions having persisted for the best part of 3 years. It'll be interesting to see what effect the next El Nino has.







You've been saying that for nigh on 18 months





"Dawlish



11/06/2012





http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf



........and June really is looking very warm. The world is warming

very quickly from the double-dip, 2-year long La n

Nina:



http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+002 "





You really don't have a clue what you're talking about, do you. But no doubt you won't learn any lessons and will carry on yapping the party line via copy & paste until eventually there will be an El Nino and then you'll claim some sort of glory. You are no better than these private publicity seeking weather companies.

Have I? In your head, perhaps you'd like me to have.

The world did warm very quickly from the double-dip La Nina which ended in Spring 2012:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Slide 24. We've had ENSO neutral conditions since.

Best not to get involved in things you know nothing about and don't understand. It makes you look an idiot, larry.

PS I don't forecast ENSO development. All I do is occasionally discuss the output from real scientists at NOAA and the Aussie BOM. The probability of record global temperatures when the next El Nino does occur would be clear to anyone with even a cursory knowledge of the subject.

On Friday, 10 January 2014 06:32:10 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, January 9, 2014 8:54:30 PM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

On Thursday, 9 January 2014 09:32:19 UTC, Dawlish wrote:



The "chances rising" part comes from observing this on a regular basis. Slide 25 gives you the current probabilities, according to NOAA, but 2 months ago, the chances of an El Nino later this year were around 20%.















http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf















An El Nino is highly likely to raise global temperatures to record values. Mind you, they are close to record values (Dec, UAH) ATM with ENSO neutral conditions having persisted for the best part of 3 years. It'll be interesting to see what effect the next El Nino has.















You've been saying that for nigh on 18 months











"Dawlish







11/06/2012











http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf







........and June really is looking very warm. The world is warming



very quickly from the double-dip, 2-year long La n



Nina:







http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+002 "











You really don't have a clue what you're talking about, do you. But no doubt you won't learn any lessons and will carry on yapping the party line via copy & paste until eventually there will be an El Nino and then you'll claim some sort of glory. You are no better than these private publicity seeking weather companies.



Have I? In your head, perhaps you'd like me to have.



The world did warm very quickly from the double-dip La Nina which ended in Spring 2012:



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf



Slide 24. We've had ENSO neutral conditions since.



Best not to get involved in things you know nothing about and don't understand. It makes you look an idiot, larry.



PS I don't forecast ENSO development. All I do is occasionally discuss the output from real scientists at NOAA and the Aussie BOM. The probability of record global temperatures when the next El Nino does occur would be clear to anyone with even a cursory knowledge of the subject.


Well for you to refute what is actually quoted in your own words makes you once again look a liar.

On Friday, January 10, 2014 5:38:51 PM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Friday, 10 January 2014 06:32:10 UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Thursday, January 9, 2014 8:54:30 PM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:



On Thursday, 9 January 2014 09:32:19 UTC, Dawlish wrote:







The "chances rising" part comes from observing this on a regular basis. Slide 25 gives you the current probabilities, according to NOAA, but 2 months ago, the chances of an El Nino later this year were around 20%.































http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf































An El Nino is highly likely to raise global temperatures to record values. Mind you, they are close to record values (Dec, UAH) ATM with ENSO neutral conditions having persisted for the best part of 3 years. It'll be interesting to see what effect the next El Nino has.































You've been saying that for nigh on 18 months























"Dawlish















11/06/2012























http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf















........and June really is looking very warm. The world is warming







very quickly from the double-dip, 2-year long La n







Nina:















http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+002 "























You really don't have a clue what you're talking about, do you. But no doubt you won't learn any lessons and will carry on yapping the party line via copy & paste until eventually there will be an El Nino and then you'll claim some sort of glory. You are no better than these private publicity seeking weather companies.







Have I? In your head, perhaps you'd like me to have.







The world did warm very quickly from the double-dip La Nina which ended in Spring 2012:







http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf







Slide 24. We've had ENSO neutral conditions since.







Best not to get involved in things you know nothing about and don't understand. It makes you look an idiot, larry.







PS I don't forecast ENSO development. All I do is occasionally discuss the output from real scientists at NOAA and the Aussie BOM. The probability of record global temperatures when the next El Nino does occur would be clear to anyone with even a cursory knowledge of the subject.





Well for you to refute what is actually quoted in your own words makes you once again look a liar.

A lot of this world is just in your head larry. So is this. Like I said:" Best not to get involved in things you know nothing about and don't understand. It makes you look an idiot, larry".

End of replies to you on this. What I said is quite enough for you to grasp the probabilities of an EL Nino next year. You don't like tgiose probabilities, but no-one else cares but you. That's all you need and all you will get. *))