On Sunday, January 24, 2016 at 7:20:37 AM UTC, Col wrote:
On 23/01/2016 14:35, dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

The people on TWO that you were reading were wrong, I'm afraid, Col. Those people simply do not know when to trust model output and when not to - especially when there is a sniff of cold. It tends to addle their brains. 😀😀


When you made that forecast the models were all over the place. There
was simply no clear signal at 10 days. Well done for calling it
correctly but you really just got lucky.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

150 forecasts and over 80% right is lucky??? Or is there something in this technique of spotting when NWP is very likely to be correct at 10 days?

As I said, the models were not 'all over the place' 10 days ago. Some people just said they were. There was agreement and consistency and that's why I forecast the change, when, apparently many others couldn't see it. That kind of luck has also happened an awful lot of times before.