Wrote in message:
On Wednesday, 5 August 2015 12:11:55 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Freddie Wrote in message:
T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015
Time to revisit!



Happy with that - the easy bit!


Very happy with that - one of the trickier aspects in a mobile
situation.



I enjoyed that ;-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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A good analysis in the first place and, at 10 days out, an impressive forecast outcome, albeit with those differences you pointed out.

I found it particularly useful as an educational aid, as much as an actual forecast, in helping understand some of the synoptics. I've a lot to learn!

If you have time to indulge in additional forecasts, whenever convenient, I'd be grateful, for one!

Well done, Niall.

J.


Originally I wanted to highlight the fact that just because the
models couldn't agree on the precise *surface* features
(vis-a-vis the title of this thread) that would be affecting the
UK 10 days hence, it doesn't necessarily follow that the
situation is unforecastable. If you have halfway decent knowledge
of dynamic meteorology then you could see that the weather type
(i.e. a progressive pattern) was a common feature between the
models - as often happens - and you could use your knowledge of
where the main driving upper features were likely to be at T+240
to make a reasonable forecast.

As it turned out, I had tremendous fun doing this, so it became
more of a pleasure than a chore. I am seriously entertaining the
idea of making one of these forecasts every Friday (something I
have failed at already, as I didn't do one last Friday!) but it
is a tad time consuming!! Nevertheless I will try to do this as I
enjoyed it so much. No doubt there will often be inaccuracies in
many forecasts I make - the challenge will be in explaining why
it has gone wrong and, of course, minimising those
occasions!

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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