On Monday, July 27, 2015 at 12:22:51 PM UTC+3, wrote:
On Friday, 24 July 2015 12:37:56 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

And all this attention-seeking posturing is terribly sad. All so "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough". Only person I've ever met who's made forecasting into some kind of ego-driven competitive sport.

Richard

Yawn.

Summed up my feelings entirely. Like Groundhog Day. "Who's clever like me?"

Again, yawn. Geddit now?

"Freddie" wrote in message
...
Freddie Wrote in message:

T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015
Time to revisit!


good stuff snipped

Nice one!

Changes of type are the hardest to predict.

Will
--

On Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 12:11:55 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Freddie Wrote in message:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
In fact there is are large differences in model output.

Anyone wish to hazard a forecast for 10 days time? Easy this business, isn't it?


T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015
Time to revisit!


The progressive weather pattern that has been a feature of this
summer will continue, with above normal Atlantic mobility due to
a stronger than normal jet - probably in part due to the
continuing cold SST anomaly extending from Labrador to Ireland,
and the continuing warm SST anomaly extending from east of
Florida to Spain.
Happy with that - the easy bit!

At T+240 we are likely to see low pressure not far from NW
Scotland and high pressure centred over Germany and Poland, with
ridging northwards to Norway. The high will slowly progress
eastward, the low will make quicker progress north-eastwards then
northwards.
Very happy with that - one of the trickier aspects in a mobile
situation.


Cooler than average over the north and north west (Scotland,
Northern Ireland), with a cool and unstable returning Polar
Maritime airmass persisting giving showery conditions,
interrupted by rain from occluded fronts associated with
travelling depressions - one such occlusion affecting the north
west at T+240 Likely to be mainly dry the east side of
Scotland.
Okay - but more rain got over to the east side of Scotland, and it
was definitely warmer than I was anticipating in NE England and
Scotland.

Dry and warmer than average over the south and south
east, with the beginnings of a temporary warm airflow off the
continent. It looks as if the upper trough driving the low over
the north west may well interact with the warm air off the
continent, giving rain and thunder - but this interaction
probably mainly to the east of the UK, and later than T+240.
Very happy with all these points.

Average temperatures over the rest of the UK (SW, Wales,
Midlands, some of NW England, NE and E England), and probably
dry.
Warmer than I was anticipating (but not by much), and there were a
few light showers.


Main uncertainties: longitudinal position of the main features -
this will affect speed of penetration of rain from the occlusion
into the eastern side of Scotland and north east England. It
will also affect the extent of warm air over the
south-east.
Longitudinal position was okay as it turned out, but there was
more northward penetration of the warm air than I
anticipated.

I enjoyed that ;-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
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Very impressed, especially as it was a real forecast of actual weather, not some broad synoptic overview.

Graham
Penzance

On Wednesday, 5 August 2015 12:11:55 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Freddie Wrote in message:
T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015
Time to revisit!



Happy with that - the easy bit!


Very happy with that - one of the trickier aspects in a mobile
situation.



I enjoyed that ;-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

A good analysis in the first place and, at 10 days out, an impressive forecast outcome, albeit with those differences you pointed out.

I found it particularly useful as an educational aid, as much as an actual forecast, in helping understand some of the synoptics. I've a lot to learn!

If you have time to indulge in additional forecasts, whenever convenient, I'd be grateful, for one!

Well done, Niall.

J.

On Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 12:11:55 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Freddie Wrote in message:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
In fact there is are large differences in model output.

Anyone wish to hazard a forecast for 10 days time? Easy this business, isn't it?


T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015
Time to revisit!


The progressive weather pattern that has been a feature of this
summer will continue, with above normal Atlantic mobility due to
a stronger than normal jet - probably in part due to the
continuing cold SST anomaly extending from Labrador to Ireland,
and the continuing warm SST anomaly extending from east of
Florida to Spain.
Happy with that - the easy bit!

At T+240 we are likely to see low pressure not far from NW
Scotland and high pressure centred over Germany and Poland, with
ridging northwards to Norway. The high will slowly progress
eastward, the low will make quicker progress north-eastwards then
northwards.
Very happy with that - one of the trickier aspects in a mobile
situation.


Cooler than average over the north and north west (Scotland,
Northern Ireland), with a cool and unstable returning Polar
Maritime airmass persisting giving showery conditions,
interrupted by rain from occluded fronts associated with
travelling depressions - one such occlusion affecting the north
west at T+240 Likely to be mainly dry the east side of
Scotland.
Okay - but more rain got over to the east side of Scotland, and it
was definitely warmer than I was anticipating in NE England and
Scotland.

Dry and warmer than average over the south and south
east, with the beginnings of a temporary warm airflow off the
continent. It looks as if the upper trough driving the low over
the north west may well interact with the warm air off the
continent, giving rain and thunder - but this interaction
probably mainly to the east of the UK, and later than T+240.
Very happy with all these points.

Average temperatures over the rest of the UK (SW, Wales,
Midlands, some of NW England, NE and E England), and probably
dry.
Warmer than I was anticipating (but not by much), and there were a
few light showers.


Main uncertainties: longitudinal position of the main features -
this will affect speed of penetration of rain from the occlusion
into the eastern side of Scotland and north east England. It
will also affect the extent of warm air over the
south-east.
Longitudinal position was okay as it turned out, but there was
more northward penetration of the warm air than I
anticipated.

I enjoyed that ;-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Hi Freddie,

Must admit I'd forgotten about your forecast, sorry! It was good on almost all points. Well done and I'm looking forward to your next!

On Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 8:47:31 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Wrote in message:
On Wednesday, 5 August 2015 12:11:55 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Freddie Wrote in message:
T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015
Time to revisit!



Happy with that - the easy bit!


Very happy with that - one of the trickier aspects in a mobile
situation.



I enjoyed that ;-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

A good analysis in the first place and, at 10 days out, an impressive forecast outcome, albeit with those differences you pointed out.

I found it particularly useful as an educational aid, as much as an actual forecast, in helping understand some of the synoptics. I've a lot to learn!

If you have time to indulge in additional forecasts, whenever convenient, I'd be grateful, for one!

Well done, Niall.

J.


Originally I wanted to highlight the fact that just because the
models couldn't agree on the precise *surface* features
(vis-a-vis the title of this thread) that would be affecting the
UK 10 days hence, it doesn't necessarily follow that the
situation is unforecastable.

Absolutely true. I try to forecast more detail, but it's often that which lets me down.

If you have halfway decent knowledge
of dynamic meteorology then you could see that the weather type
(i.e. a progressive pattern) was a common feature between the
models - as often happens - and you could use your knowledge of
where the main driving upper features were likely to be at T+240
to make a reasonable forecast.


If that were true, many organisations would be able to forecast at 10 days, pretty accurately, on a daily basis. However, they clearly can't, or they would trumpet this fact and publish accuracy data.


As it turned out, I had tremendous fun doing this, so it became
more of a pleasure than a chore. I am seriously entertaining the
idea of making one of these forecasts every Friday (something I
have failed at already, as I didn't do one last Friday!) but it
is a tad time consuming!! Nevertheless I will try to do this as I
enjoyed it so much. No doubt there will often be inaccuracies in
many forecasts I make - the challenge will be in explaining why
it has gone wrong and, of course, minimising those
occasions!

Oh excellent! I'll look forward to that.


--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

On 06/08/2015 08:52, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 12:11:55 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Freddie Wrote in message:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
In fact there is are large differences in model output.

Anyone wish to hazard a forecast for 10 days time? Easy this business, isn't it?


T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015
Time to revisit!


The progressive weather pattern that has been a feature of this
summer will continue, with above normal Atlantic mobility due to
a stronger than normal jet - probably in part due to the
continuing cold SST anomaly extending from Labrador to Ireland,
and the continuing warm SST anomaly extending from east of
Florida to Spain.
Happy with that - the easy bit!

At T+240 we are likely to see low pressure not far from NW
Scotland and high pressure centred over Germany and Poland, with
ridging northwards to Norway. The high will slowly progress
eastward, the low will make quicker progress north-eastwards then
northwards.
Very happy with that - one of the trickier aspects in a mobile
situation.


Cooler than average over the north and north west (Scotland,
Northern Ireland), with a cool and unstable returning Polar
Maritime airmass persisting giving showery conditions,
interrupted by rain from occluded fronts associated with
travelling depressions - one such occlusion affecting the north
west at T+240 Likely to be mainly dry the east side of
Scotland.
Okay - but more rain got over to the east side of Scotland, and it
was definitely warmer than I was anticipating in NE England and
Scotland.

Dry and warmer than average over the south and south
east, with the beginnings of a temporary warm airflow off the
continent. It looks as if the upper trough driving the low over
the north west may well interact with the warm air off the
continent, giving rain and thunder - but this interaction
probably mainly to the east of the UK, and later than T+240.
Very happy with all these points.

Average temperatures over the rest of the UK (SW, Wales,
Midlands, some of NW England, NE and E England), and probably
dry.
Warmer than I was anticipating (but not by much), and there were a
few light showers.


Main uncertainties: longitudinal position of the main features -
this will affect speed of penetration of rain from the occlusion
into the eastern side of Scotland and north east England. It
will also affect the extent of warm air over the
south-east.
Longitudinal position was okay as it turned out, but there was
more northward penetration of the warm air than I
anticipated.

I enjoyed that ;-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Hi Freddie,

Must admit I'd forgotten about your forecast, sorry! It was good on almost all points. Well done and I'm looking forward to your next!


Was that ironic, or are you just ass licking again dullish?

On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 12:55:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
In fact there is are large differences in model output.

Anyone wish to hazard a forecast for 10 days time? Easy this business, isn't it?

Still no agreement or consistency at T240 and it has been quite a long time since I've seen any. The output this morning is a real mixed bag and would make forecasting a lottery. Even at a week, agreement between the models is weak.

Dawlish Wrote in message:
In fact there is are large differences in model output.

Anyone wish to hazard a forecast for 10 days time? Easy this business, isn't it?


T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015

The progressive weather pattern that has been a feature of this
summer will continue, with above normal Atlantic mobility due to
a stronger than normal jet - probably in part due to the
continuing cold SST anomaly extending from Labrador to Ireland,
and the continuing warm SST anomaly extending from east of
Florida to Spain.
*
At T+240 we are likely to see low pressure not far from NW
Scotland and high pressure centred over Germany and Poland, with
ridging northwards to Norway.* The high will slowly progress
eastward, the low will make quicker progress north-eastwards then
northwards.
*
Cooler than average over the north and north west (Scotland,
Northern Ireland), with a cool and unstable returning Polar
Maritime airmass persisting giving showery conditions,
interrupted by rain from occluded fronts associated with
travelling depressions - one such occlusion affecting the north
west at T+240* Likely to be mainly dry the east side of
Scotland.* Dry and warmer than average over the south and south
east, with the beginnings of a temporary warm airflow off the
continent.* It looks as if the upper trough driving the low over
the north west may well interact with the warm air off the
continent, giving rain and thunder - but this interaction
probably mainly to the east of the UK, and later than T+240.*
Average temperatures over the rest of the UK (SW, Wales,
Midlands, some of NW England, NE and E England), and probably
dry.
*
Main uncertainties: longitudinal position of the main features -
this will affect speed of penetration of rain from the occlusion
into the eastern side of Scotland and north east England.* It
will also affect the extent of warm air over the
south-east.
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Freddie Wrote in message:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
In fact there is are large differences in model output.

Anyone wish to hazard a forecast for 10 days time? Easy this business, isn't it?


T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015
Time to revisit!


The progressive weather pattern that has been a feature of this
summer will continue, with above normal Atlantic mobility due to
a stronger than normal jet - probably in part due to the
continuing cold SST anomaly extending from Labrador to Ireland,
and the continuing warm SST anomaly extending from east of
Florida to Spain.
Happy with that - the easy bit!

At T+240 we are likely to see low pressure not far from NW
Scotland and high pressure centred over Germany and Poland, with
ridging northwards to Norway. The high will slowly progress
eastward, the low will make quicker progress north-eastwards then
northwards.
Very happy with that - one of the trickier aspects in a mobile
situation.


Cooler than average over the north and north west (Scotland,
Northern Ireland), with a cool and unstable returning Polar
Maritime airmass persisting giving showery conditions,
interrupted by rain from occluded fronts associated with
travelling depressions - one such occlusion affecting the north
west at T+240 Likely to be mainly dry the east side of
Scotland.
Okay - but more rain got over to the east side of Scotland, and it
was definitely warmer than I was anticipating in NE England and
Scotland.

Dry and warmer than average over the south and south
east, with the beginnings of a temporary warm airflow off the
continent. It looks as if the upper trough driving the low over
the north west may well interact with the warm air off the
continent, giving rain and thunder - but this interaction
probably mainly to the east of the UK, and later than T+240.
Very happy with all these points.

Average temperatures over the rest of the UK (SW, Wales,
Midlands, some of NW England, NE and E England), and probably
dry.
Warmer than I was anticipating (but not by much), and there were a
few light showers.


Main uncertainties: longitudinal position of the main features -
this will affect speed of penetration of rain from the occlusion
into the eastern side of Scotland and north east England. It
will also affect the extent of warm air over the
south-east.
Longitudinal position was okay as it turned out, but there was
more northward penetration of the warm air than I
anticipated.

I enjoyed that ;-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/