Quite a model split. I hope the ECM has picked up on a milder trend,
but the gfs is sticking to its cold guns.

A happy New Year to all.

Paul

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Quite a model split. I hope the ECM has picked up on a milder trend,
but the gfs is sticking to its cold guns.

A happy New Year to all.

Paul

What cold guns are they Paul, turned the heating off here three hours ago.

On Thu, 31 Dec 2009 23:24:33 -0000, "Lawrence Jenkins"
wrote:


"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Quite a model split. I hope the ECM has picked up on a milder trend,
but the gfs is sticking to its cold guns.

A happy New Year to all.

Paul

What cold guns are they Paul, turned the heating off here three hours ago.

I have a feeling that these T240+ mild spells are going to keep
disappearing into the distance this Winter...

--
Dave

On Dec 31 2009, 11:59*pm, Dave Ludlow
wrote:
On Thu, 31 Dec 2009 23:24:33 -0000, "Lawrence Jenkins"

wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Quite a model split. I hope the ECM has picked up on a milder trend,
but the gfs is sticking to its cold guns.

A happy New Year to all.

Paul

What cold guns are they Paul, turned the heating off here three hours ago.

I have a feeling that these T240+ mild spells are going to keep
disappearing into the distance this Winter...

--
Dave

I fear you are right Dave. ECM has qickly aligned itself with the gfs
this morning. It wouldn't take a lot for me to be forecasting cold
into the second third of January with those charts.

It seems you've had snow this morning Lawrence, as have a few others.
The cold has arrived, eventually and there is not the snow in not in
the quantities that some were hoping for, but it has arrived as
forecast. There is a cold week in prospect and I'd keep your heating
well to hand if I were you, as you are going to need it. Temperatures
today are struggling to get much above freezing in many areas and that
will be the case for many, especially in the east, over the coming
week.

The gfs and the ECM forecast the eventual arrival of this colder air,
but neither model can take a great deal of comfort from the shorter-
term forecasting of the conditions prior to the arrival of this colder
air. There was no widespread severe weather, though the cold and snow
weather has caused problems for some.

Again, I hope everyone has a happy and a prosperous 2010. 8-))

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...



Happy New year to you as well Paul!

The odds are increasing I'd say for the cold to last until the end of
February.

Welcome to 1963
Seriously, I don't think anybody expects a repeat of
that fabled winter but I do wonder if 2009/10 might be
*the one* that delivers a winter that many on this ng
have been spending years dreaming about, if 62/63 is
impossible, how about a 78/79?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Col wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Happy New year to you as well Paul!

The odds are increasing I'd say for the cold to last until the end of
February.

Welcome to 1963
Seriously, I don't think anybody expects a repeat of
that fabled winter but I do wonder if 2009/10 might be
*the one* that delivers a winter that many on this ng
have been spending years dreaming about, if 62/63 is
impossible, how about a 78/79?

A long long way to go yet COL and really at this early stage it's been
more like a winter from the 80's. The last 15 years the winters have
been so mild we've forgotten what they were like. I still also feel our
warming planet may take most of the edge off it, even given the right
synoptics over the next two months, which is probably why I get so
frustrated as this *may* be the last real opportunity for *real* winter
down south. Only time will tell.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Jan 1, 3:11*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Col wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Happy New year to you as well Paul!

The odds are increasing I'd say for the cold to last until the end of
February.

Welcome to 1963
Seriously, I don't think anybody expects a repeat of
that fabled winter but I do wonder if 2009/10 might be
*the one* that delivers a winter that many on this ng
have been spending years dreaming about, if 62/63 is
impossible, how about a 78/79?

A long long way to go yet COL and really at this early stage it's been
more like a winter from the 80's. The last 15 years the winters have
been so mild we've forgotten what they were like. I still also feel our
warming planet may take most of the edge off it, even given the right
synoptics over the next two months, which is probably why I get so
frustrated as this *may* be the last real opportunity for *real* winter
down south. Only time will tell.

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

A difficult one Keith. If, as recent research is hinting at, the
winter polar vortex is actually showing more signs of shifting, or
splitting with changes in ice cover, it could, amazingly paradoxically
though it seems, be that a warming planet could allow colder winters
in the UK albeit for a short period of time. See what the analysis of
this winter, should it prove cold, shows.

Also, it is worth noting that just because we, in the UK, are cold,
this cold does not extend to the whole of Europe. A poster from Greece
posted this today on TWO:

"Today the temperature in the village of Vrysses, in Crete, reached
30.4C at eleven 11 a.m.!!!This is a new European record of high
temperature for January!

http://penteli.meteo.gr/stations/vrysses/

Also we had records in many places in Greece, included Athens,where
the highest temperature ever recorded for the new Year's eve (since
1897 that we have records) reached 21.6C! "

I'll bet Joe (silly) B doesn't mention that particular European record
in his next missive!

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 1, 3:11 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Col wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Happy New year to you as well Paul!
The odds are increasing I'd say for the cold to last until the end of
February.
Welcome to 1963
Seriously, I don't think anybody expects a repeat of
that fabled winter but I do wonder if 2009/10 might be
*the one* that delivers a winter that many on this ng
have been spending years dreaming about, if 62/63 is
impossible, how about a 78/79?
A long long way to go yet COL and really at this early stage it's been
more like a winter from the 80's. The last 15 years the winters have
been so mild we've forgotten what they were like. I still also feel our
warming planet may take most of the edge off it, even given the right
synoptics over the next two months, which is probably why I get so
frustrated as this *may* be the last real opportunity for *real* winter
down south. Only time will tell.

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

A difficult one Keith. If, as recent research is hinting at, the
winter polar vortex is actually showing more signs of shifting, or
splitting with changes in ice cover, it could, amazingly paradoxically
though it seems, be that a warming planet could allow colder winters
in the UK albeit for a short period of time. See what the analysis of
this winter, should it prove cold, shows.

Also, it is worth noting that just because we, in the UK, are cold,
this cold does not extend to the whole of Europe. A poster from Greece
posted this today on TWO:

"Today the temperature in the village of Vrysses, in Crete, reached
30.4C at eleven 11 a.m.!!!This is a new European record of high
temperature for January!

http://penteli.meteo.gr/stations/vrysses/

Also we had records in many places in Greece, included Athens,where
the highest temperature ever recorded for the new Year's eve (since
1897 that we have records) reached 21.6C! "

I'll bet Joe (silly) B doesn't mention that particular European record
in his next missive!


Exactly, things balance out around the world and whether the *mean* will
be up globally, as I'd expect, we shall have to wait and see. I had to
check a couple of times some of the temperatures in Sardinia and Sicily
as both have hit the magic 27°C in last few days. It makes a change that
Greece are missing out on the cold, but it proves we sit on the other
side of the game to them ~ "tweedle dee and tweedle dum", or something
like that :-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

The odds are increasing I'd say for the cold to last until the end of
February.
Once a pattern gets settled in January it takes some shifting usually. By
February the seas around us will be colder than normal due to very cold
air advected over them and so I can see that month being cold too.

Slurp, slurp that Jail Ale should be brewing nicely now :-)

Will
--


As ever, there are always exceptions and I remember that, in Jan 1982,
following the very cold December of 1981
and a serious cold spell in early January, the cold weather faded away
during the second week and the rest of the winter was unexceptional.

Peter Clarke
Ewell Epsom

In article ,
Col writes:

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...



Happy New year to you as well Paul!

The odds are increasing I'd say for the cold to last until the end of
February.

Welcome to 1963
Seriously, I don't think anybody expects a repeat of
that fabled winter but I do wonder if 2009/10 might be
*the one* that delivers a winter that many on this ng
have been spending years dreaming about, if 62/63 is
impossible, how about a 78/79?

I'd settle for another 1985, often forgotten now but with notable cold
spells in both January and February and a lot of snow.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)