On Jun 10, 5:21*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message

...







"Norman" wrote in message
...
Keith(Southend) wrote:

Now that's what I call a long range forecast ;-)

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

If you really want to get into fantasy land a subscription to Netweather
Extra
is good value for money. Amongst a whole variety of really useful stuff
they
also include surface and upper air forecast charts for the North Atlantic
and
Europe in 12-hourly time-steps out to 9 months ahead, updated daily!
These
originate in NCEP in the USA. Today's issue shows mild SW'lies over the
country
for Christmas Day! They also have UK regional monthly forecasts out to 9
months
ahead, also originating in NCEP. It's all quite entertaining stuff but
they
also have a great deal of very useful "conventional" model output on the
site.
It's one of the more useful sites I've come across. The cost of the
subscription is very modest *- *and no, I am not in any way involved with
the
site other than as a subscriber.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
------------------------------
He was exposed last year as being hopeless. I'm still waiting for all that
harsh weather and blizzards from last winter. One day all these "long
range" mystic Megs will get one right and we will have to put up with all
the "told you" they were good posts ;-(

Dave

I guess that as a professional I can read in between the
lines more and see where he is coming from rather than taking what he says
as absolute fact.

When you read that again, Will, are you proud of writing it?

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 9 June, 19:55, "Norman" wrote:

These
originate in NCEP in the USA. Today's issue shows mild SW'lies over the
country
for Christmas Day!

I don't know - sounds about right to me !

Richard

Christmas written off at T+4278-ish must be a record for the ng.

Jon.

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 9 June, 19:55, "Norman" wrote:

These
originate in NCEP in the USA. Today's issue shows mild SW'lies over the
country
for Christmas Day!

I don't know - sounds about right to me !

Richard

Christmas written off at T+4728-ish must be a record for the ng.

Jon.

Jon O'Rourke wrote:

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 9 June, 19:55, "Norman" wrote:

These
originate in NCEP in the USA. Today's issue shows mild SW'lies over the
country for Christmas Day!

I don't know - sounds about right to me !

Richard

Christmas written off at T+4728-ish must be a record for the ng.

Jon.


But then today's issue for 1200z on Christmas day shows a 1030 mb high centred
just north of Shetland, a 990 mb low in the Black Sea and straight easterlies
over the British Isles originating somewhere east of 50E. The 516 line lies
over eastern England and the 498 line is over Finland.

As I said in my earlier post, these progs are quite entertaining. The
presentation is good and they look so convincing. Not sure what the Daily
Express would make of them! I wonder why NCEP issues them. They really are pure
fantasy land.

Back to reality - we had a single rumble of thunder here at 1610z. It's been
raining continuously since 1315z but for the past few hours it's been only
slight. The TBR show a total of 7.6 mm but judging from the news reports some
places in the vicinity have had a lot more.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...

"Norman" wrote in message
...
Keith(Southend) wrote:

Now that's what I call a long range forecast ;-)

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather


If you really want to get into fantasy land a subscription to Netweather
Extra
is good value for money. Amongst a whole variety of really useful stuff
they
also include surface and upper air forecast charts for the North Atlantic
and
Europe in 12-hourly time-steps out to 9 months ahead, updated daily!
These
originate in NCEP in the USA. Today's issue shows mild SW'lies over the
country
for Christmas Day! They also have UK regional monthly forecasts out to 9
months
ahead, also originating in NCEP. It's all quite entertaining stuff but
they
also have a great deal of very useful "conventional" model output on the
site.
It's one of the more useful sites I've come across. The cost of the
subscription is very modest - and no, I am not in any way involved with
the
site other than as a subscriber.


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
------------------------------
He was exposed last year as being hopeless. I'm still waiting for all that
harsh weather and blizzards from last winter. One day all these "long
range" mystic Megs will get one right and we will have to put up with all
the "told you" they were good posts ;-(

Dave


Dave by that same token I'm still awaiting the "killer Heat Waves" from UKMO
two spring/summers running!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jun 10, 5:21 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in
message

...







"Norman" wrote in message
...
Keith(Southend) wrote:

Now that's what I call a long range forecast ;-)

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

If you really want to get into fantasy land a subscription to
Netweather
Extra
is good value for money. Amongst a whole variety of really useful stuff
they
also include surface and upper air forecast charts for the North
Atlantic
and
Europe in 12-hourly time-steps out to 9 months ahead, updated daily!
These
originate in NCEP in the USA. Today's issue shows mild SW'lies over the
country
for Christmas Day! They also have UK regional monthly forecasts out to
9
months
ahead, also originating in NCEP. It's all quite entertaining stuff but
they
also have a great deal of very useful "conventional" model output on
the
site.
It's one of the more useful sites I've come across. The cost of the
subscription is very modest - and no, I am not in any way involved with
the
site other than as a subscriber.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
------------------------------
He was exposed last year as being hopeless. I'm still waiting for all
that
harsh weather and blizzards from last winter. One day all these "long
range" mystic Megs will get one right and we will have to put up with
all
the "told you" they were good posts ;-(

Dave

I guess that as a professional I can read in between the
lines more and see where he is coming from rather than taking what he says
as absolute fact.

When you read that again, Will, are you proud of writing it?

What the hell are you talking about?

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 9 June, 19:55, "Norman" wrote:

These
originate in NCEP in the USA. Today's issue shows mild SW'lies over the
country
for Christmas Day!

I don't know - sounds about right to me !

Richard

Christmas written off at T+4728-ish must be a record for the ng.

Jon.

So good you wrote it twice. I thought it was rather amusing.

------------------------------
He was exposed last year as being hopeless. I'm still waiting for all that
harsh weather and blizzards from last winter. One day all these "long
range" mystic Megs will get one right and we will have to put up with all
the "told you" they were good posts ;-(

Dave


Dave by that same token I'm still awaiting the "killer Heat Waves" from UKMO
two spring/summers running!


Don't suppose the met office will be exposed as hopeless if their heat
wave summer for 2009 goes tits up (again)!! Not looking too brilliant at
the moment!
--
Graham

On Jun 13, 11:29*am, Graham wrote:
------------------------------
He was exposed last year as being hopeless. I'm still waiting for all that
harsh weather and blizzards from last winter. One day all these "long
range" mystic Megs will get one right and we will have to put up with all
the "told you" they were good posts ;-(

Dave

Dave by that same token I'm still awaiting the "killer Heat Waves" from UKMO
two spring/summers *running!

Don't suppose the met office will be exposed as hopeless if their heat
wave summer for 2009 goes tits up (again)!! Not looking too brilliant at
the moment!
--
Graham

The MetO won't be exposed as hopeless. It's just that they are
operating at the edge of what is possible. If people don't realise
that, they don't understand the limitations of present-day, long-
range, weather forecasting. The MetO are able to forecast very well at
short-range and they can demonstrate increasing accuracy over time,
which is accepted. However, seasonal forecasting is a completely
different matter. No-one and I mean no-one is able to forecast any
better than using a similar pattern to what has happened over the last
30 years and factoring in a continued UK warming trend over that time.
It is highly likely that a coming season will be warmer than the long-
term average and it is likely that it will be warmer than the 30-year
moving average. I'd bet anyone, at evens, that each coming season will
be warmer than either of these averages and I'd be very confident of
coming out ahead over a reasonable period of time. As for rainfall in
a season - that's not a lot better than guesswork. not just from the
MetO, from anybody. If anyone feels that Joe *******i can forecast the
state of the coming winter from 6 months out, as they feel he is a
"good meteorologist", well, they need their head examining. Last
winter was testament to that, as has already been said - and many
other times before.

If you expect perfection from these forecasts, the MetO will always
fail you, as accurate seasonal forecasting is not yet possible. The
MetO don't claim great accuracy, so why expect it of them? They know
their limitations, but I'd agree that they could explain those
limitations much more simply and clearly.

BTW we are only in the second week of the summer. Philip has the CET
to the 12th as 12.6C, -0.9C below the average. That will almost
certainly rise as the 3rd week progresses; warmer weather is very
likely on its way. There are almost 11 weeks left of the summer and
not even 2 gone. Judge a forecast at outcome, not near its start,
would be sage advice!

In article ,
Graham writes:
Don't suppose the met office will be exposed as hopeless if their heat
wave summer for 2009 goes tits up (again)!! Not looking too brilliant
at the moment!

But of course they never predicted any such thing. It was merely the
spin that the media put on their summer forecast, which IIRC said
something along the lines of the likelihood that the summer would be
warmer and drier than average. With the summer only one-sixth over, that
could well still be the case.
--
John Hall "Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always
pays off now." Anon