http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

They cannot be serious.

This one keeps coming up. Better chop a few more logs Will.

Len
Wembury

In article
,
Len Wood writes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

They cannot be serious.

This one keeps coming up. Better chop a few more logs Will.

Len
Wembury

'"The mean CET for December, January and February for the recent
relatively cold winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10 were 3.50C and 2.53C
respectively," they wrote.

'"Whereas the mean value for the previous 20 winters had been 5.04C.

'"The cluster of lower winter temperatures in the UK during the last
three years had raised questions about the probability of more similar,
or even colder, winters occurring in the future."'

Three years seems like an awfully small sample to draw conclusions from.
To be fair, there is also a lot of good, sensible stuff in the article.
--
John Hall
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick
themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
Winston S Churchill (1874-1965)

On 06/07/2011 10:42, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
Len writes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

They cannot be serious.

This one keeps coming up. Better chop a few more logs Will.

Len
Wembury
'"The mean CET for December, January and February for the recent
relatively cold winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10 were 3.50C and 2.53C
respectively," they wrote.

'"Whereas the mean value for the previous 20 winters had been 5.04C.

'"The cluster of lower winter temperatures in the UK during the last
three years had raised questions about the probability of more similar,
or even colder, winters occurring in the future."'

Three years seems like an awfully small sample to draw conclusions from.
To be fair, there is also a lot of good, sensible stuff in the article.

A few years ago we had a run of mild, wet winters. We were told that
this, together with hot, dry summers (that is a more Mediterranean
climate) was going to be the norm with climate change and that in the SE
we would need to consider growing succulents (akak "Cacti") in our gardens.

We have had the "No Gulf Stream" scare and now comes the "Return of the
Maunder Minimum" scare (read the article - it's low sunspot number not
AGW which is being blamed).

No one really knows, it seems. Many models seem to use a climatology
which may be already out of date and which we do not yet have the
observations to replace. Like seasonal forecasting (sadly,
"Netweather"'s turn for egg on the face this year, it seems) long-term
climatological prediction can be a lot of fun but is not yet beyond the
"for amusement only - no prizes" stage.

The only certainty is that the future will be different to the past, but
the jury is still very much out on what those differences will be...

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

On Jul 6, 7:18*pm, Yokel wrote:
On 06/07/2011 10:42, John Hall wrote:





In article
,
* Len *writes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

They cannot be serious.

This one keeps coming up. Better chop a few more logs Will.

Len
Wembury
'"The mean CET for December, January and February for the recent
relatively cold winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10 were 3.50C and 2.53C
respectively," they wrote.

'"Whereas the mean value for the previous 20 winters had been 5.04C.

'"The cluster of lower winter temperatures in the UK during the last
three years had raised questions about the probability of more similar,
or even colder, winters occurring in the future."'

Three years seems like an awfully small sample to draw conclusions from..
To be fair, there is also a lot of good, sensible stuff in the article.

A few years ago we had a run of mild, wet winters. *We were told that
this, together with hot, dry summers (that is a more Mediterranean
climate) was going to be the norm with climate change and that in the SE
we would need to consider growing succulents (akak "Cacti") in our gardens.

We have had the "No Gulf Stream" scare and now comes the "Return of the
Maunder Minimum" scare (read the article - it's low sunspot number not
AGW which is being blamed).

No one really knows, it seems. *Many models seem to use a climatology
which may be already out of date and which we do not yet have the
observations to replace. *Like seasonal forecasting (sadly,
"Netweather"'s turn for egg on the face this year, it seems) long-term
climatological prediction can be a lot of fun but is not yet beyond the
"for amusement only - no prizes" stage.

The only certainty is that the future will be different to the past, but
the jury is still very much out on what those differences will be...

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It is remarkable how even people "in the business" can be led into
predictions of dire conditions on the basis of a few exceptional
seasons. After three consecutive cold winters (esp. SE England)
1985/6/7 there was a remark in an article in "Weather", not noted for
sensationalism, that The UK and the southeast in particular could
expect a good deal more of this sort of stuff. The winters here in
Surrey were certainly remarkably cold, and all my low-temperature
records in my 28-yr record are from this period, but there has been
nothing like it since at least at the same degree of persistence. The
remark in "Weather" could not have been more wrong.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 556 ft.

On Jul 6, 10:42*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
*Len Wood writes:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

They cannot be serious.

This one keeps coming up. Better chop a few more logs Will.

Len
Wembury

'"The mean CET for December, January and February for the recent
relatively cold winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10 were 3.50C and 2.53C
respectively," they wrote.

'"Whereas the mean value for the previous 20 winters had been 5.04C.

'"The cluster of lower winter temperatures in the UK during the last
three years had raised questions about the probability of more similar,
or even colder, winters occurring in the future."'

Three years seems like an awfully small sample to draw conclusions from.
To be fair, there is also a lot of good, sensible stuff in the article.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * "Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick
* * * * * * *themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Winston S Churchill (1874-1965)

And the numbers of sunspots are highly likely to increase for the next
5 years, when Solar cycle 24 is likely to peak. You'll still get
someone not realising this and factoring this into their UK winter
seasonal forecast for 2011-12, however. Wait and see.

I do think Lockwood's research is very interesting, but I don't
understand the "7 years" bit at all. Surely it should be 11 years, as
that is the typical (though not consistent) length of a solar cycle.
Then again, blocked British winters don't seem to fit an 11 year
cycle, at all. Little seems to add up in this.

On Wed, 06 Jul 2011 10:42:44 +0100, John Hall wrote:

In article
,
Len Wood writes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

They cannot be serious.

This one keeps coming up. Better chop a few more logs Will.

Len Wembury

'"The mean CET for December, January and February for the recent
relatively cold winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10 were 3.50C and 2.53C
respectively," they wrote.

'"Whereas the mean value for the previous 20 winters had been 5.04C.

'"The cluster of lower winter temperatures in the UK during the last
three years had raised questions about the probability of more similar,
or even colder, winters occurring in the future."'

Three years seems like an awfully small sample to draw conclusions from.
To be fair, there is also a lot of good, sensible stuff in the article.

Let's try 11-yr samples:
1900-1910: Low sunspots, CET DJF 4.17C
1910-1920: Low sunspots, CET DJF 5.57C
1940-1950: High sunspots, CET DJF 5.10C
1950-1960: High sunspots, CET DJF 4.63C
1960-1970: High sunspots, CET DJF 3.30C

The cold winters of the late C18 were associated with high sunspot
activity. A sudden drop in activity at the end of the century brought
little change but, in the middle of the quiet period, the winters got
about half-a-degree warmer.

All of which proves exactly what? That a long period of low sunspot
activity leads to warm winters whilst a spell of record high activity
causes cold winters?


--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
Whilst it's true that money can't buy you happiness, at least you can
be miserable in comfort.
Newsreader for Windows, Mac, Unix family: http://pan.rebelbase.com/

On Jul 7, 8:32*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 06 Jul 2011 10:42:44 +0100, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
*Len Wood writes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

They cannot be serious.

This one keeps coming up. Better chop a few more logs Will.

Len Wembury

'"The mean CET for December, January and February for the recent
relatively cold winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10 were 3.50C and 2.53C
respectively," they wrote.

'"Whereas the mean value for the previous 20 winters had been 5.04C.

'"The cluster of lower winter temperatures in the UK during the last
three years had raised questions about the probability of more similar,
or even colder, winters occurring in the future."'

Three years seems like an awfully small sample to draw conclusions from..
To be fair, there is also a lot of good, sensible stuff in the article.

Let's try 11-yr samples:
1900-1910: Low sunspots, *CET DJF 4.17C
1910-1920: Low sunspots, *CET DJF 5.57C * * * * * * * *
1940-1950: High sunspots, CET DJF 5.10C
1950-1960: High sunspots, CET DJF 4.63C
1960-1970: High sunspots, CET DJF 3.30C

The cold winters of the late C18 were associated with high sunspot
activity. A sudden drop in activity at the end of the century brought
little change but, in the middle of the quiet period, the winters got
about half-a-degree warmer.

All of which proves exactly what? That a long period of low sunspot
activity leads to warm winters whilst a spell of record high activity
causes cold winters?

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
Whilst it's true that money can't buy you happiness, at least you can
be miserable in comfort.
Newsreader for Windows, Mac, Unix family:http://pan.rebelbase.com/- Hide quoted text -

Where does just the number of sunspots count as the basis of any
suppositions about solar activity?

It appears to me that the pressure exerted on the upper atmosphere by
solar winds causes enough drama to change the way the weather works.
Having it pointed at the UK each time it occurs is a bit stiff though.

Even the saros cycle misses the same surface by a fairly large margin
an at the thrird go round, misses entirely.

What was the name of the firm doing forecasts based on solar activity?