OK just got up so this has to be quick.

Looking at the 06Z FAX analysis I notice a low 980 hPa (no closed isobars
though) off Brest. So clearly developments were not as quick as anticipated and
the fall of pressure to the south took away the gradient east of the cold front.
That low is not there on T+6 GFS so that is no help. The low should move NNE (I
think!) That will introduce a temporary increase in wind this morning as Waghorn
indicated and may be quite gusty, but also looking at the radar, some very heavy
rain too and I notice the Met Office now have warnings for heavy rain. That's
my Dartmoor forecast gone for a ball of chalk, sorry walkers :-(

A few days ago all the indications were there of a *possibility* of a major
event *somewhere* in UK. However, as time has gone by everyone has struggled
with the detail it seems. Why? I guess it must come down to lack of key
observational data in a highly developmental situation. I suspect this level of
detail is wrong a lot of the time in the Atlantic where we don't know about it,
but when it occurs near our small island it makes all the difference. Ah well,
Mr Hindsight will get it right no doubt :-)

This is why we *love* weather, it's unpredictable at times!

From a rather more humble Haytor,

Will.
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

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