I've put the CET data series into a spreadsheet and done some
processing. I reckon that the mildest runs of winters are as follows.

5 years: mean of 5.4C - 1972-6
6 years: mean of 5.2C - 1971-6 and 1734-9
7 years: mean of 5.2C - 1733-9
8 years: mean of 5.1C - 1988-95 and 1732-9
9 years: mean of 4.9C - 1992-2000, 1988-96, 1987-95, 1920-8, 1919-27,
1918-26
10 years: mean of 4.9C - 1989-98
11 years: mean of 4.9C - 1989-99 and 1988-98
12 years: mean of 5.0C - 1989-2000 and 1988-99

Bear in mind that the differences between those sets shown and the next
mildest are often only 0.1 of a degree, so are very small, and so
rounding could become a factor (I've rounded all the values to the
nearest 0.1 of a degree). The December values are credited to the
following year (eg Dec 1976 counts as part of "Winter 1977"). The mean
value for the run of 12 years may seem anomalous. It is at least partly
an artifact of rounding.

Those who like cold winters may be able to take some heart from what
followed the mild winters of the 1730s. And there is at least a
slight hint in the data that the mildness of our winters may have
declined a little post 2000.

The runs of coldest winters are all back in the 1670s and 1680s.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

Those who like cold winters may be able to take some heart from what
followed the mild winters of the 1730s. And there is at least a
slight hint in the data that the mildness of our winters may have
declined a little post 2000.

Looking at some of the recent photographs, i.e.: post-"1947 mk. II"
2002, from the EAST of England, that indeed seems to be indeed somewhat
true. This January alone, Brian Gaze has already reported 4 successive
days of snow down in his neck of the woods, which, he concedes, is
something that he has not in fact seen for a while now! (Is that right,
Brian?)

However, here, in the North-West of England, after the feets of snow
that fell in February 1994 and December 1995, plus the penetratingly
powerful early January 1997 easterly, and other "lesser" - but by no
means poor - snowfalls, such as November 1993 and February 2001,
October(!) 2000 being quite firmly somewhere between the two, if
slightly closer to the former, I have to say:-D, the situation, IF
ANYTHING, still REMAINS just slightly WORSE than the 1990s. Looking at
Hudds. today, it was like something from an Engels or a Dickens
piece!:-o

Perhaps Brian is right... maybe it well and truly *IS* the turn of the
South-East now, which largely missed out in the mid-1990s solar minimum
fun and games, at the expense of the general North and West of the
country now.:-(

EVEN THE SOUTH-WEST IS GETTING MORE SNOW NOWADAYS FOR HEAVEN'S
SAKES!!!:-(

D.

In article ,
John Hall writes:
And there is at least a slight hint in the data that the mildness of
our winters may have declined a little post 2000.

Unfortunately, having corrected a glitch in the data for 2002 (which had
a very mild winter), I now have to withdraw that statement. Runs ending
in 2003 and/or 2004 are now equal top for all runs of winters from 6 to
11 inclusive.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 20:28:06 +0000, John Hall
wrote:

Those who like cold winters may be able to take some heart from what
followed the mild winters of the 1730s. And there is at least a
slight hint in the data that the mildness of our winters may have
declined a little post 2000.

The runs of coldest winters are all back in the 1670s and 1680s.

John-was the winter c 1708 a really severe one over in the Baltic?
IIRC a rather aggressive Swedish King (was it Charles XII) decided on
a campaign against 'Russia' and came a cropper. I am struggling to
remember my A level History!
Cheers Robin

In article ,
Robin Nicholson writes:
On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 20:28:06 +0000, John Hall
wrote:

Those who like cold winters may be able to take some heart from what
followed the mild winters of the 1730s. And there is at least a
slight hint in the data that the mildness of our winters may have
declined a little post 2000.

The runs of coldest winters are all back in the 1670s and 1680s.

John-was the winter c 1708 a really severe one over in the Baltic?

1708 wasn't, at least in England, but 1709 was. Looking in HH Lamb's
"Climate, History and the Modern World", I found: "The winter of 1708-9
was of historic severity in Europe... People walked across the Baltic on
the ice..." (p232)

IIRC a rather aggressive Swedish King (was it Charles XII) decided on
a campaign against 'Russia' and came a cropper.

So Napoleon and Hitler had a predecessor.

I am struggling to
remember my A level History!


--
John Hall
Johnson: "Well, we had a good talk."
Boswell: "Yes, Sir, you tossed and gored several persons."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84); James Boswell (1740-95)

On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 10:48:18 +0000, John Hall
wrote:


IIRC a rather aggressive Swedish King (was it Charles XII) decided on
a campaign against 'Russia' and came a cropper.

So Napoleon and Hitler had a predecessor.

I am reasonably certain it was Charles XII.The Vasa dynasty? I think I
read a book some 35 years ago- IIRC the same author who did one on the
Duke of Montrose - which revealed that Charles XII was found of
marmalade and took plenty around with him.
With that I return to marking mock GCSEs. I will be generous, I have
decided, as it is quite mild outside, a woodpecker has paid a visit,
and I have a weekend off work!