What I am saying here is in part a follow on of a comment along these lines
someone made
a few days back. It is a good point.
What I wish to say is that, yes we are now in our 19th year since we
last had a winter month with a CET below 0C. That was February 1986.
Our last CET below 0C before then was January 1979, only a 7 year gap.
Before then we have to go back to February 1963 and of course January 1963,
a gap of 16 years. So on that basis, yes we are due.
Using the past century as a reference point here, just look how long we
had to wait after February 1895 (CET -1.8). We had to wait until January
1940. That was a massive interlude of 45 years!!
On that basis then we have a lot longer to wait before that interval is
broken. Indeed we have to wait until 2031.
After the cold winter of 1895 and that was cold. January of that year
was just 0.2C. If there had been a cold December in 1894 ie like 1981, that
winter would have been on a par with 1963 or jolly near to it.
After the winter of 1895 things went very mild. We had the mildest
January ever in 1916 (CET 7.5). January 1921 was a real mild one (CET 7.3) .
Just a 5 year gap there. Sounds like the 1990s doesn't it?. Look at the
winter of 1923 a trio of 5.5 pluses there - yet more mild ones. 1929 broke
it a bit with a 1.3 and a 0.4. 1937 was another mild one like what we seem
to be having now.
1940 kicked things off and must have been a real shock, even more so
considering the war was on and fuel was rationed.
To skip a long a bit; things cooled a bit in the 1960s and then we had
the legendary mild winters of the 1970s which was my childhood and I
lamented the lack of snow and completely characterless winters. I hated it.
Things changed with the winter of 1978/79.
Then we had December 1981. We did not have to wait long for another
stunner of a cold spell. January 1982.
Then we had the great zonal north westerlies of January 1984. I was at
Lancaster university and that was the first time I had seen snow settle on a
westerly. That some westerly though. Often a north westerly, but with some
strength in it, and I mean strength. I also remember one HUGE gale. We had
snow lie for over 10 days in that month.
January 1985 and February 1985 delivered some decent snow and cold
weather on easterlies.
The following year another one. February 1986. But that had hardly any
snow, just biting easterlies.
Then the following year a cold spell to end all cold spells. January
1987. A daytime maximum of -8C in East Anglia followed by -14C that night.
Things eased after what was apparently the coldest 48 hour period since
January 1740. January 1987 ended with a CET of 0.8C. So that was a cold one.
After that things went mild. I went to Australia for 3 and a half years
and missed this mild stuff. I remember seeing, London 12C, in the papers or
TV, for day after day after day, in most Januarys and Februarys. It seemed
that winter had been abolished in Britain.
The next cold spell was February 1991 a month after I returned from
Australia and I nearly froze to death. That was a good snowfall here in East
Anglia. In fact it was the last deep one I remember. After that that's it up
to date.
1987 the last humdinger of a cold winter, with just an interruption by
Feb 1991 seems to complete it. Yes we have had a very big run of mild
winters. I have not had anything below -10C since Februarys 1991. December
1991 is my last -10C.
Think of that big mild gap from 1895 to 1940. I still reckon things will
swing back, but when is the very big question.
I reckon we have a lot longer to go before the pendulum swings back, but
when it does we will all be surprised.


--
************************************************** **********
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.
www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
2005.
************************************************** **********

The pendulum will swing back Gavin - but perhaps the frequency has changed.

PS The winters of 95/96 & 00/01 were partly humdingers in this part of the
country.
So luck and location have a part to play in the statistics too.
Alex.

1987 the last humdinger of a cold winter, with just an interruption by
Feb 1991 seems to complete it. Yes we have had a very big run of mild
winters. I have not had anything below -10C since Februarys 1991. December
1991 is my last -10C.
Think of that big mild gap from 1895 to 1940. I still reckon things
will
swing back, but when is the very big question.
I reckon we have a lot longer to go before the pendulum swings back,
but
when it does we will all be surprised.


--
************************************************** **********
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.
www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
2005.
************************************************** **********

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...


As soon as you detect a cycle, it will then fail to repeat.

Steve's Law #4

In article ,
Steve writes:

As soon as you detect a cycle, it will then fail to repeat.

Steve's Law #4

I think you're too late to claim that one.
--
John Hall

"I don't even butter my bread; I consider that cooking."
Katherine Cebrian

Hi Gavin

For what you say to hold true we have to assume that the overall picture has
remained constant, but we know that it hasn't and global temperatures are
higher now than at anytime since 1890. Therefore the basic background
'constant' has changed and what went before cannot be applied now.
_______________________________
Nick

Worcester
45 AMSL

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
What I am saying here is in part a follow on of a comment along these
lines
someone made
a few days back. It is a good point.
What I wish to say is that, yes we are now in our 19th year since we
last had a winter month with a CET below 0C. That was February 1986.
Our last CET below 0C before then was January 1979, only a 7 year gap.
Before then we have to go back to February 1963 and of course January
1963,
a gap of 16 years. So on that basis, yes we are due.
Using the past century as a reference point here, just look how long we
had to wait after February 1895 (CET -1.8). We had to wait until January
1940. That was a massive interlude of 45 years!!
On that basis then we have a lot longer to wait before that interval is
broken. Indeed we have to wait until 2031.
After the cold winter of 1895 and that was cold. January of that year
was just 0.2C. If there had been a cold December in 1894 ie like 1981,
that
winter would have been on a par with 1963 or jolly near to it.
After the winter of 1895 things went very mild. We had the mildest
January ever in 1916 (CET 7.5). January 1921 was a real mild one (CET 7.3)
.
Just a 5 year gap there. Sounds like the 1990s doesn't it?. Look at the
winter of 1923 a trio of 5.5 pluses there - yet more mild ones. 1929 broke
it a bit with a 1.3 and a 0.4. 1937 was another mild one like what we seem
to be having now.
1940 kicked things off and must have been a real shock, even more so
considering the war was on and fuel was rationed.
To skip a long a bit; things cooled a bit in the 1960s and then we had
the legendary mild winters of the 1970s which was my childhood and I
lamented the lack of snow and completely characterless winters. I hated
it.
Things changed with the winter of 1978/79.
Then we had December 1981. We did not have to wait long for another
stunner of a cold spell. January 1982.
Then we had the great zonal north westerlies of January 1984. I was at
Lancaster university and that was the first time I had seen snow settle on
a
westerly. That some westerly though. Often a north westerly, but with some
strength in it, and I mean strength. I also remember one HUGE gale. We
had
snow lie for over 10 days in that month.
January 1985 and February 1985 delivered some decent snow and cold
weather on easterlies.
The following year another one. February 1986. But that had hardly any
snow, just biting easterlies.
Then the following year a cold spell to end all cold spells. January
1987. A daytime maximum of -8C in East Anglia followed by -14C that night.
Things eased after what was apparently the coldest 48 hour period since
January 1740. January 1987 ended with a CET of 0.8C. So that was a cold
one.
After that things went mild. I went to Australia for 3 and a half years
and missed this mild stuff. I remember seeing, London 12C, in the papers
or
TV, for day after day after day, in most Januarys and Februarys. It
seemed
that winter had been abolished in Britain.
The next cold spell was February 1991 a month after I returned from
Australia and I nearly froze to death. That was a good snowfall here in
East
Anglia. In fact it was the last deep one I remember. After that that's it
up
to date.
1987 the last humdinger of a cold winter, with just an interruption by
Feb 1991 seems to complete it. Yes we have had a very big run of mild
winters. I have not had anything below -10C since Februarys 1991. December
1991 is my last -10C.
Think of that big mild gap from 1895 to 1940. I still reckon things
will
swing back, but when is the very big question.
I reckon we have a lot longer to go before the pendulum swings back,
but
when it does we will all be surprised.


--
************************************************** **********
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.
www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
2005.
************************************************** **********

For what you say to hold true we have to assume that the overall picture
has remained constant, but we know that it hasn't and global temperatures
are higher now than at anytime since 1890. Therefore the basic background
'constant' has changed and what went before cannot be applied now.

Also is not the opposite of this true, statistically -
"Before then we have to go back to February 1963 and of course January 1963,
a gap of 16 years. So on that basis, yes we are due." If we are in a mild
trend isn't it less likely to happen than if we were in a cold trend,
irrespective of what happened before.

Dave

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Steve writes:

As soon as you detect a cycle, it will then fail to repeat.

Steve's Law #4

I think you're too late to claim that one.
--
Well yes, I've heard/read it or something akin to it before. Do you or
anyone else have any idea who it is attribuled to originally?

Hi Dave

Little bit confused about what you are trying to say.

I just think that trying to predict future cold winters by using the past
can only apply if the background (global) temperature remains the same. It
hasn't and has been increasing overall. My only assumption is that random
cold winters will become even more infrequent than they were in the past,
possibly to the point at which they never occur at all or are a rare 'once
in a lifetime event'.
_______________________
Nick G
Worcester
45m amsl

"Dave.C" wrote in message
...


For what you say to hold true we have to assume that the overall picture
has remained constant, but we know that it hasn't and global temperatures
are higher now than at anytime since 1890. Therefore the basic background
'constant' has changed and what went before cannot be applied now.

Also is not the opposite of this true, statistically -
"Before then we have to go back to February 1963 and of course January
1963,
a gap of 16 years. So on that basis, yes we are due." If we are in a mild
trend isn't it less likely to happen than if we were in a cold trend,
irrespective of what happened before.

Dave

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
Hi Dave

Little bit confused about what you are trying to say.
Yes, not very well put! I think I was agreeing with you, maybe not all of
Gavin's points.

Dave