Adrian D. Shaw wrote:
Felly sgrifennodd Weatherlawyer :
I'm not sure I understand what a statistical approach is needed for.

Because:

a) a method such as I outlined earlier could be used to show that your
methods work, scientifically, without question, or to show that it
doesn't (as the case may be), and
b) if a) proves it works, then it would form a model which could be used
to make a forecast.

If a) did show it worked, you'd have the makings of a paper which could be
published, with hard evidence, and you could then come back here and
say "I told you so". Few then wouldn't accept your methods, and those that
didn't would be those that didn't believe in science - there can't be
many of those in here. You could also potentially become quite rich, with
such a breakthrough.

But I'm afraid that, until you can do this, you won't have a lot of takers.

Show me how to set this thing up then and I will be rich and let you
borrow the occasional fiver. I can't for the life of me see how telling
people the same thing I have already told them one way will make me
rich if I tell them another.

What would make me rich is if someone takes notice and it saves their
life.

And the richest man of all time if it stops fools suggesting that it is
god's fault they built houses in silly places and paid no attention to
the things around them.

For that's the real reason I got involved in all this in the first
place. The main one at least.

Felly sgrifennodd Weatherlawyer :
Show me how to set this thing up then and I will be rich and let you
borrow the occasional fiver. I can't for the life of me see how telling
people the same thing I have already told them one way will make me
rich if I tell them another.

It would make a difference if you got your method peer-reviewed and
published in an appropriate journal. The reason people don't accept your
methods now is because you haven't done that, and they can't see that
it works from the evidence you have given.

But it's not quite so straightforward to set up, unfortunately. It would
take some weeks of time for a competent programmer. And unfortunately I
do not have that time to spare. If you could get someone with a weather
prediction system already in operation, using the methods I described,
to take you seriously, it would take far less time, but that is not likely
to happen, I think.

And the richest man of all time if it stops fools suggesting that it is
god's fault they built houses in silly places and paid no attention to
the things around them.

I'm not sure anything would stop people doing that!

Adrian


--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk

Adrian D. Shaw wrote:
Felly sgrifennodd Weatherlawyer :

It would make a difference if you got your method peer-reviewed and
published in an appropriate journal. The reason people don't accept your
methods now is because you haven't done that, and they can't see that
it works from the evidence you have given.

Maybe. But you are wong about the financial remunerations to be gained
in this line of work. Lanchester made it by inventing and selling stuff
like his cars for instance. How much did Col Robert Miller make for
inventing the weathermodel to forecast tornadoes?

That was clever stuff.

Felly sgrifennodd Weatherlawyer :
Maybe. But you are wong about the financial remunerations to be gained
in this line of work. Lanchester made it by inventing and selling stuff
like his cars for instance. How much did Col Robert Miller make for
inventing the weathermodel to forecast tornadoes?

Just submit it as a patent instead of to a journal; that should do it!

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...

Paul Herber wrote:
Whether there is anything in it, I know not.
Decoding of the weatherlawyer babblings would rank on the same scale
as decoding the human genome.

You are Lawrence Jenkins and I claim my five pounds.


Keep me out of this.

wrote:

Oh, right.It's an assertion

Aren't they all? What do you think of this:

MAY 27th 05:26: Check out the weather for the 14th of March and
compare it to this one.
Lots of ridges of course. But going where I can not say.

MAR 14th 23:35.
A bloody awkward one again. I have a feeling there is going to be a lot
of nasty seismic activity this year.*
This spell looks like it might be full of ridges of high pressure,
running as it does so close on to the one before.

http://groups.google.co.uk/group/alt...f992965c35f5f0

*That's true but there haven't been an especially large number of high
mag quakes this year. There never are though are there? Maybe that was
because there was a real flat spot at the start of the year.

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Make the most of it.

MAY 27 5 26 Couldn't settle down that one, could it.

JUNE 3 23 06 This one aught to be really nice.

JUNE 11 18 03 And this one will see the first of the hurricanes or at
least a severe tropical storm.

JUNE 18 14 08 And this one will be another fine one.

This last one if I am not being a little previous with it, seems to
pull them all together.

If you look at the first one I gave (the phases for 27th May) the
timing was half an hour off for the really good stuff (for lovers of
good stuff that is) so that the weather was a little on the damp side,
with an High just off to the west.

If as it seems to me now at last, the time of the phase for the wettest
weather (that is the centre of a Low to be over the UK) is at half
past: one, three or six o'clock and the centre of an High is over the
UK at five or eleven -on the hour:

The centre of an High is not going to be over the UK at four or eight
o'clock but will be (more likely) to throw a wet spell out into the
Atlantic by half an hour.

The pressure system involved is one that is related to a Low that would
have developed over the UK, had the time of the phase been half an our
earlier.

In this case, not a humid one.

Lows in the Atlantic can bring fine weather and it is remarkable how
much this depends on the declination of the moon with this type of
spell. If the Low is far to the north, anywhere near the fishing banks:
SE Iceland to Hebrides especially (YMWV oc) it will provide sunny-ish
weather -for the most part, for my region.

If the Low comes down to Shannon (or Malin even (though that would be
over the UK as Malin is the mouth of the Irish Sea from the Hebrides to
Western Irelad in) ...it will bring more rain.

Should it come lower the lows will tend to cross the UK in heavy burss
but tend to last only a short while. It used to be thought that Low
Pressure Areas in temperate zones were short lived compared to
anticyclones.

Such is not the case.

Weatherlawyer wrote:

JUNE 18 14 08 And this one will be another fine one.

This last one if I am not being a little previous with it, seems to
pull them all together.

If you look at the first one I gave (the phases for 27th May) the
timing was half an hour off for the really good stuff (for lovers of
good stuff that is) so that the weather was a little on the damp side,
with an High just off to the west.

If as it seems to me now at last, the time of the phase for the wettest
weather (that is the centre of a Low to be over the UK) is at half
past: one, three or six o'clock and the centre of an High is over the
UK at five or eleven -on the hour:

The centre of an High is not going to be over the UK at four or eight
o'clock but will be (more likely) to throw a wet spell out into the
Atlantic by half an hour.

The pressure system involved is one that is related to a Low that would
have developed over the UK, had the time of the phase been half an our
earlier.

In this case, not a humid one.

What a sad spell. Disaterous in Java and pretty dire in Texas. Not too
bad here. No wonder I was so easily mistaken.

25th Jun 16:05 This aught to be a wet one but I wouldn't be surprised
if the spell was rather similar to the last. I won't be stunned if
something interesting turns up. Quite a revealing sequence all in all.

3rd Jul 16:37 And curiouser and curiouser.

11th Jul 03:02 But this HAS got to be a thundery one. Thunderstorms
will tend to recur some 6 hours after the first one. And it will be
humid all week.

17th Jul 19:13 And a classic wet spell. A good year for drupes and
berries a bad year for the cereal crop farmers. One for the birds then.

And talking about recurrences:
25th Jul 04:31. The question is, is this one like the spells for the
25th and the 3rd? Is it like the one for 27th of May -only placing the
High somewhere to the east of the UK instead of the west.

I love this stuff.

Weatherlawyer wrote:

JUNE 18 14 08 And this one will be another fine one.
This last one if I am not being a little previous with it, seems to
pull them all together.

It's confounding me. Was it not a wet spell?

The pressure system involved [was] related to a Low that would have
developed over the UK, had the time of the phase been half an our earlier.

In this case, not a humid one.

What a sad spell. Disasterous in Java and pretty dire in Texas. Not too
bad here. No wonder I was so easily mistaken.

25th Jun 16:05
This aught to be a wet one but I wouldn't be surprised if the spell was
rather similar to the last.

I won't be stunned if something interesting turns up.
Quite a revealing sequence, all in all.

Well it is certainly interesting but I'm damned if I can fathom it.

I love this stuff.

But it's still too much like guesswork to be accepted.

2 hours good 4 hours baaad. (Unless you like hot sticky sunny weather
where it's difficult to sleep and just waiting for a bus in the late
morning is hard work.)

JUNE 25 16 05 JULY 3 16 37

Rain for the start of Wimbledon and cool overcast and one or two drops
(literally) here. That was the 26th.

2nd of July after a run of increasingly more humid, sunny weather; a
thunderstorm that killed a woman locally. (I wonder if I recognised
that strike it was an odd one that started with a swish before but
connected to the crack then a long loud peal after a short pause.)

The thunder went on for about 2 hours. Some of the thunder seemed to
blend into the sound of airliners to go on forever. (It is about the
same frequency, after all!)

So what happens next? The met office are warning of dangerous heat
waves in the south. It isn't quite the same bad weather as is being
experienced on continental land masses. The thing is we are not
prepared for hot weather on this island.