The GFS has really showed it's metal in the last few months. Best one out
there at the moment.
Woudn't have said that a year ago.
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"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 20 Jan 2004 12:26:47 -0000, Philip Eden wrote in


"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT...ester_ens.html
However the operational run looks to be more severe than the rest.

I like the consistency (relatively speaking) up to the 28th -- eight
days ahead is quite a long time for this -- but it is noticeable how
it falls away totally after that, and from the 29th the runs are
practically random (within the climatological envelope). It'll be
interesting to see whether future runs continue to identify the
28th as the day the models lose it.


As we can see, this was posted on the 20th, some 9 days ago. Then there
was basic agreement amongst the models for the recent cold spell, with the
uncertainty (in the GFS) starting today. I recall seeing the spaghetti
plots, tightly bunched up to the 28th.

I reckon NWP did a pretty good job in general terms at such a long lead
time.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 29/01/2004
22:43:17 UTC