http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/index.htm

SEVERE WINTRY END TO JANUARY IN UK
Although mild weather with rain at times will dominate the UK for the next
few days, the final week of the month looks set to be dominated by a severe
plunge of winter, with hard frosts and widespread snow. The snow will
initially affect Scotland and northeast England from Monday 26th Jan, but
will then extend to most other parts by the middle of the week. Sporting
fixtures and transport are expected to be severely affected.

Lets hope it comes true!

"nguk.." wrote in message
...
http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/index.htm

SEVERE WINTRY END TO JANUARY IN UK
Although mild weather with rain at times will dominate the UK for the next
few days, the final week of the month looks set to be dominated by a
severe
plunge of winter, with hard frosts and widespread snow. The snow will
initially affect Scotland and northeast England from Monday 26th Jan, but
will then extend to most other parts by the middle of the week. Sporting
fixtures and transport are expected to be severely affected.

Lets hope it comes true!



http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

"nguk.." wrote in message
...

"nguk.." wrote in message
...
http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/index.htm

http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/brack4a.gif



Hi Neil,

Looks to me like a omega block mid-Atlantic -
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2...y &hour=144hr
Models are beginning to converge, as Mike pointed out yesterday
evening -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT...ester_ens.html
However the operational run looks to be more severe than the rest.

Joe

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT...ester_ens.html
However the operational run looks to be more severe than the rest.

I like the consistency (relatively speaking) up to the 28th -- eight
days ahead is quite a long time for this -- but it is noticeable how
it falls away totally after that, and from the 29th the runs are
practically random (within the climatological envelope). It'll be
interesting to see whether future runs continue to identify the
28th as the day the models lose it.

Philip Eden

On Tue, 20 Jan 2004 12:26:47 -0000, Philip Eden wrote in


"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT...ester_ens.html
However the operational run looks to be more severe than the rest.

I like the consistency (relatively speaking) up to the 28th -- eight
days ahead is quite a long time for this -- but it is noticeable how
it falls away totally after that, and from the 29th the runs are
practically random (within the climatological envelope). It'll be
interesting to see whether future runs continue to identify the
28th as the day the models lose it.


As we can see, this was posted on the 20th, some 9 days ago. Then there
was basic agreement amongst the models for the recent cold spell, with the
uncertainty (in the GFS) starting today. I recall seeing the spaghetti
plots, tightly bunched up to the 28th.

I reckon NWP did a pretty good job in general terms at such a long lead
time.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 29/01/2004 22:43:17 UTC

The GFS has really showed it's metal in the last few months. Best one out
there at the moment.
Woudn't have said that a year ago.
--------------------------------------------------
"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 20 Jan 2004 12:26:47 -0000, Philip Eden wrote in


"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT...ester_ens.html
However the operational run looks to be more severe than the rest.

I like the consistency (relatively speaking) up to the 28th -- eight
days ahead is quite a long time for this -- but it is noticeable how
it falls away totally after that, and from the 29th the runs are
practically random (within the climatological envelope). It'll be
interesting to see whether future runs continue to identify the
28th as the day the models lose it.


As we can see, this was posted on the 20th, some 9 days ago. Then there
was basic agreement amongst the models for the recent cold spell, with the
uncertainty (in the GFS) starting today. I recall seeing the spaghetti
plots, tightly bunched up to the 28th.

I reckon NWP did a pretty good job in general terms at such a long lead
time.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 29/01/2004
22:43:17 UTC

Joe



Thanks Joe interesting chart that

On Tue, 20 Jan 2004 12:03:35 -0000, Joe Hunt wrote in

snip
Looks to me like a omega block mid-Atlantic -
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2...y &hour=144hr
Models are beginning to converge, as Mike pointed out yesterday
evening -
snip

Converging they are Joe. Here is the block (at 300mb) as seen by the
Japanese model for next Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1923.html


--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 20/01/2004 16:00:39 UTC

Forgive me if a stupid question, but is the operational run the bold blue
line?

Mulzy

Looks to me like a omega block mid-Atlantic -

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2...=500mb+Vortici
ty&hour=144hr
Models are beginning to converge, as Mike pointed out yesterday
evening -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT...ester_ens.html
However the operational run looks to be more severe than the rest.

Joe

"Mulzy" wrote in message
...
snipped and rearranged

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT...ester_ens.html
is the operational run the bold blue
line?

Mulzy


Yes.

Jon.