On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury

On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'd seen that signature in this ppt
http://www.eumetrain.org/data/2/236/236.pptx
but I do not see banding in the representative pics there, perhaps you
need experience of looking at satellite pics.
In the next hour i'll dive into the GFS archives of the 03 Jan 2012 ,
Islay to Edinburgh documented sting-jet of the wwww era, to see what is
consistent with this Friday (or potential Friday if it virtually
evaporates between yesterday and friday)

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 29/09/2020 08:15, N_Cook wrote:
On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'd seen that signature in this ppt
http://www.eumetrain.org/data/2/236/236.pptx
but I do not see banding in the representative pics there, perhaps you
need experience of looking at satellite pics.
In the next hour i'll dive into the GFS archives of the 03 Jan 2012 ,
Islay to Edinburgh documented sting-jet of the wwww era, to see what is
consistent with this Friday (or potential Friday if it virtually
evaporates between yesterday and friday)


Anyone know of public www access hi-res, temporal and/or spatial GFS
plots of the UK 03 Jan 2012 ?
So far I've only found 06Z and 12Z North Atlanti c+ Europe scale.
But they clearly show half a spiral , down to 300 dam on the 12Z 1.5 PVU
plot and the 06Z plot down to 250dam with no obvious hook.
850HPa temperature a 2 deg C hook
Theta-e/ TPE a hook

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'm afraid I'm as likely to see poodles or elephants in those ppt cloud
images.
German DVD does modelled future cloud appearance, but has nothing of
this sting-jet.

By banding do you mean this WRF (based on GFS data) , the banding over
SW France and Spain, a long way from the potential/putative sting-jet
centre, over Brest Peninsular, at that resolution anyway ?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...mode=38&map=20

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...&mode=4&map=20

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Still there , but not so convincingly on 12Z GFS , moved back to the
very NW of France.
Joined by 12Z DWD output, makes it all more convincing
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon...ap=0&archive=0
a bit later on 02 Sep Cherbourg to Brest area.
Just a short hop across to S England, apparently where the stings sting
is not that predicatable.
And Canada GEM agrees with positioning of a deep low in that area
,Friday pm.


--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 10:43:33 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'm afraid I'm as likely to see poodles or elephants in those ppt cloud
images.
German DVD does modelled future cloud appearance, but has nothing of
this sting-jet.

By banding do you mean this WRF (based on GFS data) , the banding over
SW France and Spain, a long way from the potential/putative sting-jet
centre, over Brest Peninsular, at that resolution anyway ?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...mode=38&map=20

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...&mode=4&map=20

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

This newsgroup does not allow posting pictures or graphics.
I will put up an example of the sting jet signature on a sat pic for you on

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatherandclimate;context-place=search/weather$20and$20climate$20change

A superior forum IMHO.

Len

On 29/09/2020 23:29, wrote:
On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 10:43:33 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'm afraid I'm as likely to see poodles or elephants in those ppt cloud
images.
German DVD does modelled future cloud appearance, but has nothing of
this sting-jet.

By banding do you mean this WRF (based on GFS data) , the banding over
SW France and Spain, a long way from the potential/putative sting-jet
centre, over Brest Peninsular, at that resolution anyway ?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...mode=38&map=20

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...&mode=4&map=20

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

This newsgroup does not allow posting pictures or graphics.
I will put up an example of the sting jet signature on a sat pic for you on

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatherandclimate;context-place=search/weather$20and$20climate$20change

A superior forum IMHO.

Len


Yes, but ...
Unless its my browser truncating something, no reference to the date of
those images, to explore beforehand on model outputs.
I went to a lecture on the general use of satellite images for
archaeology, land-use etc. In one image he had on the screen , to show
its possible to discern shops/industrial/residential use difference of a
town from space.
On the edge ,outside of his immediate interest was some repeated
stripes in an otherwise blank part of a field on the edge of the town.
I asked if that was an example of medieaval ridge and furrow farming ,
and it was.
In your image , if it was not for some red line overlay, those "banding"
features are far less distinctive than the bands in the fields left from
say 400 years ago.
What I will concede is some of the recent nebulosity model outputs, show
to me banding , but much farther from the "vanishing point" of the tail
of the spiral, than I was expecting.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 30/09/2020 08:13, N_Cook wrote:
Unless its my browser truncating something, no reference to the date of
those images, to explore beforehand on model outputs.

I've just noticed Tini, I'd misread as Time, so 12th February 2014 .

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 30/09/2020 08:21, N_Cook wrote:
On 30/09/2020 08:13, N_Cook wrote:
Unless its my browser truncating something, no reference to the date of
those images, to explore beforehand on model outputs.

I've just noticed Tini, I'd misread as Time, so 12th February 2014 .


Its still too much poodles and elephants for me, but does this model
output image of 54 hours out
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=54&mode=11&map=0&archive=0
show, sting-jet signature, 3 bands of cloud-tops between Ireland and
Cornwall?
I wonder what the French Met service is saying.
Going by the 1887 experience where the "normal" storm was supposed to
stay over France, it hopped over to England.
Meandering around the St Brieuc area 54 to 58 hous out is rather too
close for comfort.
But going with GFS hi-res 00Z plots for 54hours out, 6am GMT of Friday.
For 500HPa , tail warming
850HPa , spiral warming, and warming at the tail
TPEwarming at the tail.
In my anmateur opinion, a sting-jet configuration.
I've not had a chance to burrow into the 12 Feb 2014 archives yet, 14
Feb 2014 was of significance locally , as a 1.2m surge in the Eng
Channel that evening.




--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

The only recent media info I've found so far, with machine translation ,
but obviously very relevant technical content

https://www.3bmeteo.com/giornale-met...empesta-393558

30 settembre 2020
ore 11:26
di Francesco Nucera



Powerful coming cyclone between France and England on the way between
France and England


SINCE THURSDAY EVENING MALTEMPO ON WESTERN EUROPE - The change of
circulation on the Atlantic will bring to several nations of Europe
conditions of bad weather also intense with the start of October. The
first nations to be involved will be Western ones; in particular France
and southern England between Thursday evening and Friday will be crossed
by a deep low pressure minimum.

AUTUMN STORM BETWEEN FRANCE AND ENGLAND - The cyclone will particularly
invest northwestern France with heavy rain and downpours; above all,
wind will be the main feature that could reach storm intensity with
gusts even higher than 120-130 km/h between Brittany, Normandy, Loire
and Aquitania. If a STING JET can form the bursts may be even higher.
Violent mares will involve exposed coasts. The cyclone will then move
counter-clockwise and will also affect the southern part of the United
Kingdom; lastly, he will return from France and then continue his
journey towards the rise and ease. Rains and sustained winds will also
characterize northern Spain. The disturbance associated with the
depression circulation will be one that will bring a worsening even on
northern Italy at the weekend.

MARINE CYCLONE WITH WARM SECLUSION - On the vast depression that will
penalize Western Europe and that will extend the influence also to our
Peninsula, will be formed a minimum second of low pressure very deep on
the Gulf of Biscay, also under the 970 hPa of pressure. This is a "rapid
cyclogenesis" since it will tend to deepen rather quickly; the pressure
is expected to drop by more than 30 hPa in 24 hours. These types of
maritime extratropical cyclones are a variant of classic extratropical
cyclones; they are much more intense and have a warm structure at low
average dimensions precisely because of the speed with which they are
formed. (warm-seclusion Shapiro keyser model).
Hart phase diagram of cyclone (moe.met.fsu.edu source) Hart phase
diagram of cyclone (moe.met.fsu.edu source)

nothing on
https://www.estofex.org/


--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm