Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 28/09/2020 14:46, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

Follows thru to 12Z output.
Theta-e plots show a spiralling form also, no idea if specific to sting-jets

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury

On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'd seen that signature in this ppt
http://www.eumetrain.org/data/2/236/236.pptx
but I do not see banding in the representative pics there, perhaps you
need experience of looking at satellite pics.
In the next hour i'll dive into the GFS archives of the 03 Jan 2012 ,
Islay to Edinburgh documented sting-jet of the wwww era, to see what is
consistent with this Friday (or potential Friday if it virtually
evaporates between yesterday and friday)

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 29/09/2020 08:15, N_Cook wrote:
On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'd seen that signature in this ppt
http://www.eumetrain.org/data/2/236/236.pptx
but I do not see banding in the representative pics there, perhaps you
need experience of looking at satellite pics.
In the next hour i'll dive into the GFS archives of the 03 Jan 2012 ,
Islay to Edinburgh documented sting-jet of the wwww era, to see what is
consistent with this Friday (or potential Friday if it virtually
evaporates between yesterday and friday)


Anyone know of public www access hi-res, temporal and/or spatial GFS
plots of the UK 03 Jan 2012 ?
So far I've only found 06Z and 12Z North Atlanti c+ Europe scale.
But they clearly show half a spiral , down to 300 dam on the 12Z 1.5 PVU
plot and the 06Z plot down to 250dam with no obvious hook.
850HPa temperature a 2 deg C hook
Theta-e/ TPE a hook

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'm afraid I'm as likely to see poodles or elephants in those ppt cloud
images.
German DVD does modelled future cloud appearance, but has nothing of
this sting-jet.

By banding do you mean this WRF (based on GFS data) , the banding over
SW France and Spain, a long way from the potential/putative sting-jet
centre, over Brest Peninsular, at that resolution anyway ?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...mode=38&map=20

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...&mode=4&map=20

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Still there , but not so convincingly on 12Z GFS , moved back to the
very NW of France.
Joined by 12Z DWD output, makes it all more convincing
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon...ap=0&archive=0
a bit later on 02 Sep Cherbourg to Brest area.
Just a short hop across to S England, apparently where the stings sting
is not that predicatable.
And Canada GEM agrees with positioning of a deep low in that area
,Friday pm.


--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 10:43:33 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'm afraid I'm as likely to see poodles or elephants in those ppt cloud
images.
German DVD does modelled future cloud appearance, but has nothing of
this sting-jet.

By banding do you mean this WRF (based on GFS data) , the banding over
SW France and Spain, a long way from the potential/putative sting-jet
centre, over Brest Peninsular, at that resolution anyway ?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...mode=38&map=20

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...&mode=4&map=20

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

This newsgroup does not allow posting pictures or graphics.
I will put up an example of the sting jet signature on a sat pic for you on

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatherandclimate;context-place=search/weather$20and$20climate$20change

A superior forum IMHO.

Len

On 29/09/2020 23:29, wrote:
On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 10:43:33 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 28/09/2020 22:55, Len wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 2:46:41 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface meam winds of 60 to 65mph, over the Cherbourg to Cornwall Eng
Channel, of
102 to 110 hours out. Looking at the upper air potential vorticity plots
shows a magnificant "sting in the tail" scorpion curl and anomolous
locally 2 to 4 degC surface temperature increase .
Even if it does not come to pass, 0.25 deg GFS 06Z run outputs looks
interesting. Other potential sting jet characteristics to look for.?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Look for banding in cloud head on satellite pic.
Can be a characteristic of sting jet.

Len
Wembury


I'm afraid I'm as likely to see poodles or elephants in those ppt cloud
images.
German DVD does modelled future cloud appearance, but has nothing of
this sting-jet.

By banding do you mean this WRF (based on GFS data) , the banding over
SW France and Spain, a long way from the potential/putative sting-jet
centre, over Brest Peninsular, at that resolution anyway ?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...mode=38&map=20

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfn...&mode=4&map=20

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

This newsgroup does not allow posting pictures or graphics.
I will put up an example of the sting jet signature on a sat pic for you on

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatherandclimate;context-place=search/weather$20and$20climate$20change

A superior forum IMHO.

Len


Yes, but ...
Unless its my browser truncating something, no reference to the date of
those images, to explore beforehand on model outputs.
I went to a lecture on the general use of satellite images for
archaeology, land-use etc. In one image he had on the screen , to show
its possible to discern shops/industrial/residential use difference of a
town from space.
On the edge ,outside of his immediate interest was some repeated
stripes in an otherwise blank part of a field on the edge of the town.
I asked if that was an example of medieaval ridge and furrow farming ,
and it was.
In your image , if it was not for some red line overlay, those "banding"
features are far less distinctive than the bands in the fields left from
say 400 years ago.
What I will concede is some of the recent nebulosity model outputs, show
to me banding , but much farther from the "vanishing point" of the tail
of the spiral, than I was expecting.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 30/09/2020 08:13, N_Cook wrote:
Unless its my browser truncating something, no reference to the date of
those images, to explore beforehand on model outputs.

I've just noticed Tini, I'd misread as Time, so 12th February 2014 .

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm