On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 8:54:45 AM UTC-4, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 05/09/18 10:45, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Janet Winslow writes
Presumably this is all complete nonsense - or is it?

https://youtu.be/9V9qM-lFMh8

Since it's from some individual rather than a national weather service
or an academic institution, it's almost certainly nonsense. You can find
a lot of such forecasts on the web. Even the Met Office's attempts at
seasonal forecasting, done for the benefit of the Government and
industry, seem to be wrong more often than they are right. They released
their forecast for autumn (September to November) just the other day.
See towards the bottom of this webpage:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/service...gency-planners

Yeah, I didn't bother with the first video nor, for that matter, the one
from the Met Office. I did look a the Met Office's summary but the
description of the North Atlantic SST anomalies totally ignored the most
important area, that south of the Grand Banks, waffling on instead about
ENSO and the northern area of the North Atlantic so I'm not too
confident of their forecast.

If the hot pool south of the Grand Banks - I'd say it's now too extreme
to call it a warm pool - persists, it should result in a stormy winter
for the UK with a low pressure anomaly centred in the southern Norwegian
Sea. That combined with a mid-Atlantic high should mean that winds would
tend to be more from the WNW than usual but I still reckon it will not
be a cold winter. Having said that, any SSW could turn this on its head.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

I wouldn't say that discussing El Niño is "waffling" because it is an important global climate driver; but, agreed, broader SST anomaly patterns need to be considered. You might find this interesting, by the way - extreme SST warm anomalies in the Gulf of Maine:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...04 a4d59be954

El Niño is problematic this year, though - it could be a central Pacific based (Modoki) event which could affect the "classic" atmospheric response (locally very contradictory).


Stephen
Indianapolis, IN.

On 07/09/18 18:03, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 8:54:45 AM UTC-4, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On 05/09/18 10:45, John Hall wrote:
In message
, Janet
Winslow writes
Presumably this is all complete nonsense - or is it?

https://youtu.be/9V9qM-lFMh8

Since it's from some individual rather than a national weather
service or an academic institution, it's almost certainly
nonsense. You can find a lot of such forecasts on the web. Even
the Met Office's attempts at seasonal forecasting, done for the
benefit of the Government and industry, seem to be wrong more
often than they are right. They released their forecast for
autumn (September to November) just the other day. See towards
the bottom of this webpage:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/service...gency-planners



Yeah, I didn't bother with the first video nor, for that matter, the one
from the Met Office. I did look a the Met Office's summary but the
description of the North Atlantic SST anomalies totally ignored the
most important area, that south of the Grand Banks, waffling on
instead about ENSO and the northern area of the North Atlantic so
I'm not too confident of their forecast.

If the hot pool south of the Grand Banks - I'd say it's now too
extreme to call it a warm pool - persists, it should result in a
stormy winter for the UK with a low pressure anomaly centred in the
southern Norwegian Sea. That combined with a mid-Atlantic high
should mean that winds would tend to be more from the WNW than
usual but I still reckon it will not be a cold winter. Having said
that, any SSW could turn this on its head.


I wouldn't say that discussing El Niño is "waffling" because it is an
important global climate driver; but, agreed, broader SST anomaly
patterns need to be considered. You might find this interesting, by
the way - extreme SST warm anomalies in the Gulf of Maine:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...04 a4d59be954

El Niño is problematic this year, though - it could be a central
Pacific based (Modoki) event which could affect the "classic"
atmospheric response (locally very contradictory).


As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game. Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.

Thanks for the link but "68.93F"?! WTF?
The warming in that area was what I expected from a change in current
patterns in the North Atlantic, often said to be the result of changes
in deep-water currents but I reckon it's down to changes in the salinity
of surface currents, particularly that of the Labrador Current.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

SNIP
As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game. Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.

In in the case of certain weather presenters, a few days.

Have you got any links to that research, or any details of it? I'd be interested.

Feel free to email me if you wish.

Graham
Penzance

On 08/09/18 11:29, Graham Easterling wrote:
SNIP
As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game. Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.

In in the case of certain weather presenters, a few days.

Have you got any links to that research, or any details of it? I'd be interested.


Sorry, I haven't. It's a while since I tried looking for some so I might
have another go when I get some other things sorted out. All I have are
memories of the Long-range forecast briefings with Lamb, Ratcliffe,
Murray, et al.


Mostly OT from now on:

Scientists with short memories include some involved in the research on
changes to N Atlantic currents and the Ocean Conveyor.

New Scientist had an article last year (?) on how someone had discovered
why ice was slippy. Same explanation that I read about in the late 60s!

Every decade or so, I see that some new research shows that
milk-drinkers are less likely to suffer with heart trouble. Every time
it's treated as a shock and that nobody has ever heard of it before.
Throughout, the official line remains that it's bad because of
cholesterol. Cretins.

Again in New Scientist, a pair of idiots discovered the perfect way to
cut toenails to avoid ingrowing toenails. Not only did they come up with
a totally impractical solution, they didn't know that a simple solution
had existed for longer than my lifetime.

Doctors say that don't know how to cure hiccups nor do they know what
causes them. I heard the Radio Doctor explain the cause over sixty years
ago and, thirty-odd years ago, formed a cure based on that information.

Sigh!

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 12:09:01 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 08/09/18 11:29, Graham Easterling wrote:
SNIP
As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game. Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.

In in the case of certain weather presenters, a few days.

Have you got any links to that research, or any details of it? I'd be interested.


Sorry, I haven't. It's a while since I tried looking for some so I might
have another go when I get some other things sorted out. All I have are
memories of the Long-range forecast briefings with Lamb, Ratcliffe,
Murray, et al.


Mostly OT from now on:

Scientists with short memories include some involved in the research on
changes to N Atlantic currents and the Ocean Conveyor.

New Scientist had an article last year (?) on how someone had discovered
why ice was slippy. Same explanation that I read about in the late 60s!

Every decade or so, I see that some new research shows that
milk-drinkers are less likely to suffer with heart trouble. Every time
it's treated as a shock and that nobody has ever heard of it before.
Throughout, the official line remains that it's bad because of
cholesterol. Cretins.

Again in New Scientist, a pair of idiots discovered the perfect way to
cut toenails to avoid ingrowing toenails. Not only did they come up with
a totally impractical solution, they didn't know that a simple solution
had existed for longer than my lifetime.

Doctors say that don't know how to cure hiccups nor do they know what
causes them. I heard the Radio Doctor explain the cause over sixty years
ago and, thirty-odd years ago, formed a cure based on that information.

Sigh!

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

Now completely (OT) but I rather like this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI

Graham
Penzance

On Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 11:29:09 AM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
SNIP
As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game. Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.

In in the case of certain weather presenters, a few days.

Have you got any links to that research, or any details of it? I'd be interested.

Feel free to email me if you wish.

Graham
Penzance

Ratcliffe, RAS (1973) Recent work on sea surface temperature anomalies
related to long-range forecasting. Weather, 28, p106-117.

Ratcliffe, RAS (1976) The hot spell of late June-early July 1976. Weather,
31, p355-357.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONTHLY AND SEASONAL SOUTH-WEST
ENGLAND RAINFALL ANOMALIES AND CONCURRENT NORTH
ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IAN D. PHILLIPS* and GLENN R. MCGREGOR
Int. J. Climatol.22 : 197 – 217 (2002)

That's just a few but there are some earlier ones.

Needless to say the correlations are rather weak.
Complex feedbacks and other variables see.

Len

On Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 6:17:07 AM UTC-4, Graham P Davis wrote:


As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game.

It's certainly not something to which to unthinkingly cleave but depending on circumstances it can be influential - less so than North America, for instance, but it's not ineffectual. It's one climate driver among a bucket of others.

Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.


If they ignore it then they probably shouldn't. We don't. There's plenty of other useful research in the past 50 years in addition, though.


Stephen
Indianapolis, IN.