Presumably this is all complete nonsense - or is it?

https://youtu.be/9V9qM-lFMh8

In message ,
Janet Winslow writes
Presumably this is all complete nonsense - or is it?

https://youtu.be/9V9qM-lFMh8

Since it's from some individual rather than a national weather service
or an academic institution, it's almost certainly nonsense. You can find
a lot of such forecasts on the web. Even the Met Office's attempts at
seasonal forecasting, done for the benefit of the Government and
industry, seem to be wrong more often than they are right. They released
their forecast for autumn (September to November) just the other day.
See towards the bottom of this webpage:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/service...gency-planners
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)

On 05/09/18 10:45, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Janet Winslow writes
Presumably this is all complete nonsense - or is it?

https://youtu.be/9V9qM-lFMh8

Since it's from some individual rather than a national weather service
or an academic institution, it's almost certainly nonsense. You can find
a lot of such forecasts on the web. Even the Met Office's attempts at
seasonal forecasting, done for the benefit of the Government and
industry, seem to be wrong more often than they are right. They released
their forecast for autumn (September to November) just the other day.
See towards the bottom of this webpage:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/service...gency-planners

Yeah, I didn't bother with the first video nor, for that matter, the one
from the Met Office. I did look a the Met Office's summary but the
description of the North Atlantic SST anomalies totally ignored the most
important area, that south of the Grand Banks, waffling on instead about
ENSO and the northern area of the North Atlantic so I'm not too
confident of their forecast.

If the hot pool south of the Grand Banks - I'd say it's now too extreme
to call it a warm pool - persists, it should result in a stormy winter
for the UK with a low pressure anomaly centred in the southern Norwegian
Sea. That combined with a mid-Atlantic high should mean that winds would
tend to be more from the WNW than usual but I still reckon it will not
be a cold winter. Having said that, any SSW could turn this on its head.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

SNIP

If the hot pool south of the Grand Banks - I'd say it's now too extreme
to call it a warm pool - persists, it should result in a stormy winter
for the UK with a low pressure anomaly centred in the southern Norwegian
Sea.
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

Would the stormy prediction be down to the tighter than normal temperature gradient between the 'hot' pool and the persistent cool patch (though it seems to be declining a bit) to the north?

I also had a look at the MetO winter forecast. Ended up here
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binarie...p-maps-son.pdf with maps which could be interesting if you could read them. If you're going to put it on the WEB at that size, at least make the map clickable, otherwise there's little point.

Graham
Penzance

On 05/09/18 15:51, Graham Easterling wrote:
SNIP

If the hot pool south of the Grand Banks - I'd say it's now too
extreme to call it a warm pool - persists, it should result in a
stormy winter for the UK with a low pressure anomaly centred in the
southern Norwegian Sea. Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/ "There is nothing more frustrating
than playing hide and seek with a deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser] OS:
Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

Would the stormy prediction be down to the tighter than normal
temperature gradient between the 'hot' pool and the persistent cool
patch (though it seems to be declining a bit) to the north?

Based solely on the "hot" pool and my recollection of the
Long-range-forecast conferences I used to attend fifty years ago
(briefing them on ice conditions).

I'll say that I missed the early hot summer altogether. I suspect it was
the orientation of the temperature gradient that threw me. Since then,
the waters around Newfoundland have warmed up a lot and changed that
orientation.


I also had a look at the MetO winter forecast. Ended up here
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binarie...p-maps-son.pdf
with maps which could be interesting if you could read them. If
you're going to put it on the WEB at that size, at least make the map
clickable, otherwise there's little point.


I suppose they're assuming you'll just zoom in on the pdf page. Readable
on Okular with a 400% zoom. ;-)
[Rather than opening the pdf in the web browser, Firefox asks how you
want to view it. I prefer that to what Chrome does. Come to that, I
prefer what FF does for most things.]

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 8:54:45 AM UTC-4, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 05/09/18 10:45, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Janet Winslow writes
Presumably this is all complete nonsense - or is it?

https://youtu.be/9V9qM-lFMh8

Since it's from some individual rather than a national weather service
or an academic institution, it's almost certainly nonsense. You can find
a lot of such forecasts on the web. Even the Met Office's attempts at
seasonal forecasting, done for the benefit of the Government and
industry, seem to be wrong more often than they are right. They released
their forecast for autumn (September to November) just the other day.
See towards the bottom of this webpage:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/service...gency-planners

Yeah, I didn't bother with the first video nor, for that matter, the one
from the Met Office. I did look a the Met Office's summary but the
description of the North Atlantic SST anomalies totally ignored the most
important area, that south of the Grand Banks, waffling on instead about
ENSO and the northern area of the North Atlantic so I'm not too
confident of their forecast.

If the hot pool south of the Grand Banks - I'd say it's now too extreme
to call it a warm pool - persists, it should result in a stormy winter
for the UK with a low pressure anomaly centred in the southern Norwegian
Sea. That combined with a mid-Atlantic high should mean that winds would
tend to be more from the WNW than usual but I still reckon it will not
be a cold winter. Having said that, any SSW could turn this on its head.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

I wouldn't say that discussing El Niño is "waffling" because it is an important global climate driver; but, agreed, broader SST anomaly patterns need to be considered. You might find this interesting, by the way - extreme SST warm anomalies in the Gulf of Maine:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...04 a4d59be954

El Niño is problematic this year, though - it could be a central Pacific based (Modoki) event which could affect the "classic" atmospheric response (locally very contradictory).


Stephen
Indianapolis, IN.

On 07/09/18 18:03, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 8:54:45 AM UTC-4, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On 05/09/18 10:45, John Hall wrote:
In message
, Janet
Winslow writes
Presumably this is all complete nonsense - or is it?

https://youtu.be/9V9qM-lFMh8

Since it's from some individual rather than a national weather
service or an academic institution, it's almost certainly
nonsense. You can find a lot of such forecasts on the web. Even
the Met Office's attempts at seasonal forecasting, done for the
benefit of the Government and industry, seem to be wrong more
often than they are right. They released their forecast for
autumn (September to November) just the other day. See towards
the bottom of this webpage:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/service...gency-planners



Yeah, I didn't bother with the first video nor, for that matter, the one
from the Met Office. I did look a the Met Office's summary but the
description of the North Atlantic SST anomalies totally ignored the
most important area, that south of the Grand Banks, waffling on
instead about ENSO and the northern area of the North Atlantic so
I'm not too confident of their forecast.

If the hot pool south of the Grand Banks - I'd say it's now too
extreme to call it a warm pool - persists, it should result in a
stormy winter for the UK with a low pressure anomaly centred in the
southern Norwegian Sea. That combined with a mid-Atlantic high
should mean that winds would tend to be more from the WNW than
usual but I still reckon it will not be a cold winter. Having said
that, any SSW could turn this on its head.


I wouldn't say that discussing El Niño is "waffling" because it is an
important global climate driver; but, agreed, broader SST anomaly
patterns need to be considered. You might find this interesting, by
the way - extreme SST warm anomalies in the Gulf of Maine:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...04 a4d59be954

El Niño is problematic this year, though - it could be a central
Pacific based (Modoki) event which could affect the "classic"
atmospheric response (locally very contradictory).


As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game. Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.

Thanks for the link but "68.93F"?! WTF?
The warming in that area was what I expected from a change in current
patterns in the North Atlantic, often said to be the result of changes
in deep-water currents but I reckon it's down to changes in the salinity
of surface currents, particularly that of the Labrador Current.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

SNIP
As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game. Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.

In in the case of certain weather presenters, a few days.

Have you got any links to that research, or any details of it? I'd be interested.

Feel free to email me if you wish.

Graham
Penzance

On Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 6:17:07 AM UTC-4, Graham P Davis wrote:


As far as UK weather is concerned, I don't see ENSO as a major player in
the game.

It's certainly not something to which to unthinkingly cleave but depending on circumstances it can be influential - less so than North America, for instance, but it's not ineffectual. It's one climate driver among a bucket of others.

Far more important is the area now ignored by the Met Office;
it seems they have forgotten all about the research made fifty-odd years
ago. Mind you, they're not alone in that as many scientists these days
seem to have memories that go back no further than a decade.


If they ignore it then they probably shouldn't. We don't. There's plenty of other useful research in the past 50 years in addition, though.


Stephen
Indianapolis, IN.

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 5:16:58 AM UTC-4, Janet Winslow wrote:
Presumably this is all complete nonsense - or is it?

https://youtu.be/9V9qM-lFMh8

Yes, it is. It's nothing more than wishful thinking, a forecast driven by confirmation bias. This seems to be one of those people who has bet the house on some sort of "mini ice age" which is informing his view of seasonal forecasts. Note all the links to snow and cold, and highly selective use of climate drivers to suit (cart before horse) the narrative.


Stephen
Indianapolis, IN.