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Old July 27th 18, 02:17 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Interpreting forecast rain probabilities

Freddie wrote:

On Friday, 27 July 2018 13:58:31 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
JGD wrote:
This morning I had reason to look at the wind forecasts for Anglesey
for tomorrow. For the period between 0900z and 1200z the Met office
website is predicting SW Force 5 for Valley whereas the BBC website
is predicting SSW Force 8, also for Valley. You pays your money and
you takes your choice. These forecasts are, of course, fully
automated and I suppose they are based on different models.

There is a trough rotating north-eastwards across that area. The Met
Office model has it clearing north of Valley between 0600z and 0700z,
with strong SSWly winds ahead and less strong (but still lively) SWly
winds behind. Looks as if the Met Office model is quicker with this
than whatever model the BBC is using today.


Apologies for another response to this but I should have mentioned that
the Met Office is forecasting only Force 3-4 SSE winds at Valley
between 0000z and 0700z. The strongest winds they are forecasting are
the Force 5 SW'lies after the trough has gone through.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

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