uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old July 7th 18, 07:54 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TD3 to wake things up around here 15 July or so

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
and GFS follow-on, ignoring Hurricane Beryl.
Assuming TD3 holds up or is up-graded and the other met-models take it up.
Needs something for the torpor, who stole the isobars?.

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Old July 8th 18, 09:51 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TD3 to wake things up around here 15 July or so

On 07/07/2018 07:54, N_Cook wrote:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
and GFS follow-on, ignoring Hurricane Beryl.
Assuming TD3 holds up or is up-graded and the other met-models take it up.
Needs something for the torpor, who stole the isobars?.


NHC upped it to 80mph wind for Newfoundland 4 days out , but rapidly
loosing steam for the jaunt across the anomously cold west atlantic to
UK airspace and only 30mph of puff left for the 15 July.
ECMWF going for 17 July in UK airspace
Unusually strong spring tides at that time for mid summer, in the top 5%
of all tides strength/height
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Old July 8th 18, 10:51 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TS Chris to wake things up around here 15 July or so

On 08/07/2018 09:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 07/07/2018 07:54, N_Cook wrote:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
and GFS follow-on, ignoring Hurricane Beryl.
Assuming TD3 holds up or is up-graded and the other met-models take it
up.
Needs something for the torpor, who stole the isobars?.


NHC upped it to 80mph wind for Newfoundland 4 days out , but rapidly
loosing steam for the jaunt across the anomously cold west atlantic to
UK airspace and only 30mph of puff left for the 15 July.
ECMWF going for 17 July in UK airspace
Unusually strong spring tides at that time for mid summer, in the top 5%
of all tides strength/height


Uprated to Tropical Storm Chris, a bit more duration of 80mph wind

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../080858.shtml?

Expected to be uprated to Hurricane Chris stats about New York latitude,
I wonder how confident they can be of the projected path - I'll have to
remind myself about the evolution of Hurricane Sandy of 2012

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Old July 8th 18, 11:01 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TS Chris to wake things up around here 15 July or so

Track of Hurricane Sandy, 2012

https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/S..._NHCreport.png

from full article
https://www.weather.gov/okx/HurricaneSandy
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Old July 8th 18, 12:22 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TS Chris to wake things up around here 15 July or so

On 08/07/2018 11:01, N_Cook wrote:
Track of Hurricane Sandy, 2012

https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/S..._NHCreport.png

from full article
https://www.weather.gov/okx/HurricaneSandy


GFS 06Z run has the track of Hurricane Chris recurving close to Maine,
more west of the last ECMWF public track , so will Reading repeat its
Sandy prediction performance (or just random chance beat the NHC that
time ).

https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/S..._NHCreport.png

Model forecast tracks at 0000 UTC 23 October 2012 (a), 0000 UTC 24
October 2012 (b), 0000 UTC October 25 2012 (c), and 0000 UTC 26 October
2012 (d). Solid color lines are for forecasts through 72 hours, while
dashed lines are from 72-120 hours, and dotted lines represent the
120-168 hour forecasts (top panels only). The official track is in
white, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is
in coral, the Global Forecast System (GFS) is in cyan, the GFS ensemble
is in yellow, and the Track Variable Consensus Aids (TVCA) model
consensus is in red.


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Old July 8th 18, 04:44 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TS Chris to wake things up around here 15 July or so

Upped to a spell of 90mph, hurricane status by tomorrow forecast.
Looking at NOAA SST anomaly, similar max 4 degree C anomaly under the
track path in Oct 2012 for Hurricane Sandy, but a bit more area of +4deg
C in 2012


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Old July 8th 18, 06:26 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TS Chris to wake things up around here 15 July or so

multi-model paths for putative Hurricane Chris
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_03.gif

from
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...her/plots.html
wouldn't it be ironic if the simple extrapolation line came nearest to
reality.
Otherwise the UK MetO has the most westward path projection today.
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Old July 8th 18, 06:31 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TS Chris to wake things up around here 15 July or so

Bad contrast for yellow on my screen, Canadian model Ensemble MeaN track
is most westward for New York latitude.


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Old July 9th 18, 06:54 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TS Chris to wake things up around here 15 July or so

It looks as though putative Hurricane Chris will not pass over Canada at
all , leaving more energy to provide some much needed isobars over the
UK about 15 July



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Old July 10th 18, 04:24 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ex-TS Chris to wake things up around here 15 July or so

The Uk makes first appearance on the NHC cone of influence
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...?cone#contents
not yet declared hurricane yet





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