I stopped processing the NOAA North Atlantic SST data
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
as it was dropping off in March, but it perked up on the 07 June 2018
output, to value 47.6. Yet unproven as to being of any worth in hinting
at predicting likelihood of storminess in the English Channel and its
approaches, but not disproven, seems to be now-casting rather than
forecasting, so not much use prediction-wise. Exceptional warming
around the UK (orange) relative to even more exceptional critical patch
in the Grand Banks area (black) at the bottom of the scale for anomolous
cooling, is the principal
component for this storminess value , notional 100 as top .
The previous month E-W component marginally positive also, offset by the
current negative N-S component.
Sea Surface Temp anomaly -storminess in the North Atlantic , and
critical patches of the Atlantic ,after this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf

previous values
2018
001 (year-day number), 43 (value) ,, Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
004,44 , 45
008,51,
011, 57,
015, 55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface
low, and violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
018,53,
022, 52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan
025, 54,
029, 69,
February
032 , 59,
036, 61,

End of 2017 numbers processed but not included here

On 08/06/2018 15:36, N_Cook wrote:
I stopped processing the NOAA North Atlantic SST data
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
as it was dropping off in March, but it perked up on the 07 June 2018
output, to value 47.6. Yet unproven as to being of any worth in hinting
at predicting likelihood of storminess in the English Channel and its
approaches, but not disproven, seems to be now-casting rather than
forecasting, so not much use prediction-wise. Exceptional warming
around the UK (orange) relative to even more exceptional critical patch
in the Grand Banks area (black) at the bottom of the scale for anomolous
cooling, is the principal
component for this storminess value , notional 100 as top .
The previous month E-W component marginally positive also, offset by the
current negative N-S component.
Sea Surface Temp anomaly -storminess in the North Atlantic , and
critical patches of the Atlantic ,after this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf


previous values
2018
001 (year-day number), 43 (value) ,, Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
004,44 , 45
008,51,
011, 57,
015, 55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface
low, and violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
018,53,
022, 52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan
025, 54,
029, 69,
February
032 , 59,
036, 61,

End of 2017 numbers processed but not included here

A useful tool if the following pans out and the passing low 13-14 June
ends up more powerful than current predictions are showing.

latest 11 june 2018 output on
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
and increased the anomaly gradient across the atlantic even further.
Using 3 pairs of selected Atlantic monitoring patches , W-E, N-S and
(prior month) E-W,
ala this paper
https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf

giving the set of values below, the latest such summation factor is up from
47 (07 June 2018) to 60 (11 June 2018) , to about Storm Dylan rating

2017
66 : (NHC) Hurricane Ophelia
58 Storm Brian
55 : TS Rina
47 : putative NHC TD/TS 20, dissipated before UK
54: Storm Caroline affecting Scotland,
58 : no named storm but 90mph gusts in the English Channel with a 971mB low
59 no named storm, very localised force 9 westerlies for Ireland on
14 Dec
62, Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017
2018
43 Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no name,tropospheric
baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface low, and violent
storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan

On 11/06/2018 19:16, N_Cook wrote:
On 08/06/2018 15:36, N_Cook wrote:
I stopped processing the NOAA North Atlantic SST data
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
as it was dropping off in March, but it perked up on the 07 June 2018
output, to value 47.6. Yet unproven as to being of any worth in hinting
at predicting likelihood of storminess in the English Channel and its
approaches, but not disproven, seems to be now-casting rather than
forecasting, so not much use prediction-wise. Exceptional warming
around the UK (orange) relative to even more exceptional critical patch
in the Grand Banks area (black) at the bottom of the scale for anomolous
cooling, is the principal
component for this storminess value , notional 100 as top .
The previous month E-W component marginally positive also, offset by the
current negative N-S component.
Sea Surface Temp anomaly -storminess in the North Atlantic , and
critical patches of the Atlantic ,after this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf



previous values
2018
001 (year-day number), 43 (value) ,, Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
004,44 , 45
008,51,
011, 57,
015, 55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface
low, and violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
018,53,
022, 52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan
025, 54,
029, 69,
February
032 , 59,
036, 61,

End of 2017 numbers processed but not included here

A useful tool if the following pans out and the passing low 13-14 June
ends up more powerful than current predictions are showing.

latest 11 june 2018 output on
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
and increased the anomaly gradient across the atlantic even further.
Using 3 pairs of selected Atlantic monitoring patches , W-E, N-S and
(prior month) E-W,
ala this paper
https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf


giving the set of values below, the latest such summation factor is up from
47 (07 June 2018) to 60 (11 June 2018) , to about Storm Dylan rating

2017
66 : (NHC) Hurricane Ophelia
58 Storm Brian
55 : TS Rina
47 : putative NHC TD/TS 20, dissipated before UK
54: Storm Caroline affecting Scotland,
58 : no named storm but 90mph gusts in the English Channel with a 971mB
low
59 no named storm, very localised force 9 westerlies for Ireland on
14 Dec
62, Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017
2018
43 Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no name,tropospheric
baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface low, and violent
storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan

So it did presage what became Storm Hector.
I've revisited the SST graphics of 1999,2008,2013,2014 storms that I
selected my Atlantic sampling patches from.
Slightly moved to reflect ,hopefully , the sistuation the week before
rather than nearest NOAA output to the event.
Also I'd arbitrarily decided to keep at least the longitude or the
latitude ,fixed, between each of the 3 pairs of sample squares, for the
consensus greatest range a week before those events, including Hector.

On Saturday, June 16, 2018 at 8:52:38 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 11/06/2018 19:16, N_Cook wrote:
On 08/06/2018 15:36, N_Cook wrote:
I stopped processing the NOAA North Atlantic SST data
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
as it was dropping off in March, but it perked up on the 07 June 2018
output, to value 47.6. Yet unproven as to being of any worth in hinting
at predicting likelihood of storminess in the English Channel and its
approaches, but not disproven, seems to be now-casting rather than
forecasting, so not much use prediction-wise. Exceptional warming
around the UK (orange) relative to even more exceptional critical patch
in the Grand Banks area (black) at the bottom of the scale for anomolous
cooling, is the principal
component for this storminess value , notional 100 as top .
The previous month E-W component marginally positive also, offset by the
current negative N-S component.
Sea Surface Temp anomaly -storminess in the North Atlantic , and
critical patches of the Atlantic ,after this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf



previous values
2018
001 (year-day number), 43 (value) ,, Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
004,44 , 45
008,51,
011, 57,
015, 55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface
low, and violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
018,53,
022, 52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan
025, 54,
029, 69,
February
032 , 59,
036, 61,

End of 2017 numbers processed but not included here

A useful tool if the following pans out and the passing low 13-14 June
ends up more powerful than current predictions are showing.

latest 11 june 2018 output on
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
and increased the anomaly gradient across the atlantic even further.
Using 3 pairs of selected Atlantic monitoring patches , W-E, N-S and
(prior month) E-W,
ala this paper
https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf


giving the set of values below, the latest such summation factor is up from
47 (07 June 2018) to 60 (11 June 2018) , to about Storm Dylan rating

2017
66 : (NHC) Hurricane Ophelia
58 Storm Brian
55 : TS Rina
47 : putative NHC TD/TS 20, dissipated before UK
54: Storm Caroline affecting Scotland,
58 : no named storm but 90mph gusts in the English Channel with a 971mB
low
59 no named storm, very localised force 9 westerlies for Ireland on
14 Dec
62, Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017
2018
43 Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no name,tropospheric
baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface low, and violent
storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan

So it did presage what became Storm Hector.
I've revisited the SST graphics of 1999,2008,2013,2014 storms that I
selected my Atlantic sampling patches from.
Slightly moved to reflect ,hopefully , the sistuation the week before
rather than nearest NOAA output to the event.
Also I'd arbitrarily decided to keep at least the longitude or the
latitude ,fixed, between each of the 3 pairs of sample squares, for the
consensus greatest range a week before those events, including Hector.

Was Hector really that notable?

THis was the view from where I was staying at Little Porth, Scilly early afternoon of 14th http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/14.html It had been breezy in the morning. At home in Penzance the maximum gust was 28mph.

There was a 3m swell at Sevenstones, but it need to be twice that to be notable, even in summer.

Even in northern England I can't see it was out of the ordinary. I know Ken reported a gale, but he does live in Copley!

I would be interested to here if anyone found it really notable. If so, it was only a small part of the UK.

Graham
Penzance
Penzance

On Saturday, 16 June 2018 09:37:15 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Saturday, June 16, 2018 at 8:52:38 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 11/06/2018 19:16, N_Cook wrote:
On 08/06/2018 15:36, N_Cook wrote:
I stopped processing the NOAA North Atlantic SST data
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
as it was dropping off in March, but it perked up on the 07 June 2018
output, to value 47.6. Yet unproven as to being of any worth in hinting
at predicting likelihood of storminess in the English Channel and its
approaches, but not disproven, seems to be now-casting rather than
forecasting, so not much use prediction-wise. Exceptional warming
around the UK (orange) relative to even more exceptional critical patch
in the Grand Banks area (black) at the bottom of the scale for anomolous
cooling, is the principal
component for this storminess value , notional 100 as top .
The previous month E-W component marginally positive also, offset by the
current negative N-S component.
Sea Surface Temp anomaly -storminess in the North Atlantic , and
critical patches of the Atlantic ,after this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf



previous values
2018
001 (year-day number), 43 (value) ,, Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
004,44 , 45
008,51,
011, 57,
015, 55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface
low, and violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
018,53,
022, 52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan
025, 54,
029, 69,
February
032 , 59,
036, 61,

End of 2017 numbers processed but not included here

A useful tool if the following pans out and the passing low 13-14 June
ends up more powerful than current predictions are showing.

latest 11 june 2018 output on
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
and increased the anomaly gradient across the atlantic even further.
Using 3 pairs of selected Atlantic monitoring patches , W-E, N-S and
(prior month) E-W,
ala this paper
https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf


giving the set of values below, the latest such summation factor is up from
47 (07 June 2018) to 60 (11 June 2018) , to about Storm Dylan rating

2017
66 : (NHC) Hurricane Ophelia
58 Storm Brian
55 : TS Rina
47 : putative NHC TD/TS 20, dissipated before UK
54: Storm Caroline affecting Scotland,
58 : no named storm but 90mph gusts in the English Channel with a 971mB
low
59 no named storm, very localised force 9 westerlies for Ireland on
14 Dec
62, Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017
2018
43 Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no name,tropospheric
baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface low, and violent
storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan

So it did presage what became Storm Hector.
I've revisited the SST graphics of 1999,2008,2013,2014 storms that I
selected my Atlantic sampling patches from.
Slightly moved to reflect ,hopefully , the sistuation the week before
rather than nearest NOAA output to the event.
Also I'd arbitrarily decided to keep at least the longitude or the
latitude ,fixed, between each of the 3 pairs of sample squares, for the
consensus greatest range a week before those events, including Hector..

Was Hector really that notable?

THis was the view from where I was staying at Little Porth, Scilly early afternoon of 14th http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/14.html It had been breezy in the morning. At home in Penzance the maximum gust was 28mph.

There was a 3m swell at Sevenstones, but it need to be twice that to be notable, even in summer.

Even in northern England I can't see it was out of the ordinary. I know Ken reported a gale, but he does live in Copley!

I would be interested to here if anyone found it really notable. If so, it was only a small part of the UK.

Graham
Penzance
Penzance

Graham here's my analysis on Storm Hector:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!to...te/gT3zjNjiGuk

And if you want to see how windy it can get in June in the south look at this one:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!to...te/6nJZXHuYkOw

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Saturday, June 16, 2018 at 8:52:38 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 11/06/2018 19:16, N_Cook wrote:
On 08/06/2018 15:36, N_Cook wrote:
I stopped processing the NOAA North Atlantic SST data
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
as it was dropping off in March, but it perked up on the 07
June 2018 output, to value 47.6. Yet unproven as to being of
any worth in hinting at predicting likelihood of storminess in
the English Channel and its approaches, but not disproven, seems
to be now-casting rather than forecasting, so not much use
prediction-wise. Exceptional warming around the UK (orange)
relative to even more exceptional critical patch in the Grand
Banks area (black) at the bottom of the scale for anomolous
cooling, is the principal component for this storminess value ,
notional 100 as top . The previous month E-W component
marginally positive also, offset by the current negative N-S
component. Sea Surface Temp anomaly -storminess in the North
Atlantic , and critical patches of the Atlantic ,after this paper


https://www.researchgate.net/profile...ication/253247
101_Storminess_and_Surges_in_the_South-Western_Approaches_Eastern_At
lantic_the_Synoptic_Climatology_of_Recent_Extreme_ Coastal_Storms/lin
ks/57975d4d08aec89db7b99f64/Storminess-and-Surges-in-the-South-Weste
rn-Approaches-Eastern-Atlantic-the-Synoptic-Climatology-of-Recent-Ex
treme-Coastal-Storms.pdf



previous values
2018
001 (year-day number), 43 (value) ,, Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
004,44 , 45
008,51,
011, 57,
015, 55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving
surface low, and violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18
Jan 2018 018,53,
022, 52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan
025, 54,
029, 69,
February
032 , 59,
036, 61,

End of 2017 numbers processed but not included here

A useful tool if the following pans out and the passing low
13-14 June ends up more powerful than current predictions are
showing.

latest 11 june 2018 output on
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
and increased the anomaly gradient across the atlantic even
further. Using 3 pairs of selected Atlantic monitoring patches ,
W-E, N-S and (prior month) E-W,
ala this paper
https://www.researchgate.net/profile...blication/2532
47101_Storminess_and_Surges_in_the_South-Western_Approaches_Easter
n_Atlantic_the_Synoptic_Climatology_of_Recent_Extr eme_Coastal_Stor
ms/links/57975d4d08aec89db7b99f64/Storminess-and-Surges-in-the-Sou
th-Western-Approaches-Eastern-Atlantic-the-Synoptic-Climatology-of
-Recent-Extreme-Coastal-Storms.pdf


giving the set of values below, the latest such summation factor
is up from 47 (07 June 2018) to 60 (11 June 2018) , to about
Storm Dylan rating

2017
66 : (NHC) Hurricane Ophelia
58 Storm Brian
55 : TS Rina
47 : putative NHC TD/TS 20, dissipated before UK
54: Storm Caroline affecting Scotland,
58 : no named storm but 90mph gusts in the English Channel with
a 971mB low
59 no named storm, very localised force 9 westerlies for
Ireland on 14 Dec
62, Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017
2018
43 Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving
surface low, and violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan
2018 52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan

So it did presage what became Storm Hector.
I've revisited the SST graphics of 1999,2008,2013,2014 storms that
I selected my Atlantic sampling patches from.
Slightly moved to reflect ,hopefully , the sistuation the week
before rather than nearest NOAA output to the event.
Also I'd arbitrarily decided to keep at least the longitude or the
latitude ,fixed, between each of the 3 pairs of sample squares, for
the consensus greatest range a week before those events,
including Hector.

Was Hector really that notable?

THis was the view from where I was staying at Little Porth, Scilly
early afternoon of 14th http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/14.html It
had been breezy in the morning. At home in Penzance the maximum gust
was 28mph.

There was a 3m swell at Sevenstones, but it need to be twice that to
be notable, even in summer.

Even in northern England I can't see it was out of the ordinary. I
know Ken reported a gale, but he does live in Copley!

I would be interested to here if anyone found it really notable. If
so, it was only a small part of the UK.

Graham
Penzance
Penzance


Nothing notable in Tideswell.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On Saturday, June 16, 2018 at 9:43:29 AM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, 16 June 2018 09:37:15 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Saturday, June 16, 2018 at 8:52:38 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 11/06/2018 19:16, N_Cook wrote:
On 08/06/2018 15:36, N_Cook wrote:
I stopped processing the NOAA North Atlantic SST data
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
as it was dropping off in March, but it perked up on the 07 June 2018
output, to value 47.6. Yet unproven as to being of any worth in hinting
at predicting likelihood of storminess in the English Channel and its
approaches, but not disproven, seems to be now-casting rather than
forecasting, so not much use prediction-wise. Exceptional warming
around the UK (orange) relative to even more exceptional critical patch
in the Grand Banks area (black) at the bottom of the scale for anomolous
cooling, is the principal
component for this storminess value , notional 100 as top .
The previous month E-W component marginally positive also, offset by the
current negative N-S component.
Sea Surface Temp anomaly -storminess in the North Atlantic , and
critical patches of the Atlantic ,after this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf



previous values
2018
001 (year-day number), 43 (value) ,, Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
004,44 , 45
008,51,
011, 57,
015, 55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no
name,tropospheric baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface
low, and violent storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
018,53,
022, 52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan
025, 54,
029, 69,
February
032 , 59,
036, 61,

End of 2017 numbers processed but not included here

A useful tool if the following pans out and the passing low 13-14 June
ends up more powerful than current predictions are showing.

latest 11 june 2018 output on
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
and increased the anomaly gradient across the atlantic even further..
Using 3 pairs of selected Atlantic monitoring patches , W-E, N-S and
(prior month) E-W,
ala this paper
https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf


giving the set of values below, the latest such summation factor is up from
47 (07 June 2018) to 60 (11 June 2018) , to about Storm Dylan rating

2017
66 : (NHC) Hurricane Ophelia
58 Storm Brian
55 : TS Rina
47 : putative NHC TD/TS 20, dissipated before UK
54: Storm Caroline affecting Scotland,
58 : no named storm but 90mph gusts in the English Channel with a 971mB
low
59 no named storm, very localised force 9 westerlies for Ireland on
14 Dec
62, Storm Dylan 30-31 Dec 2017
2018
43 Storm Eleanor 02-03 Jan 2018
55, snowstorm 16-17 Jan Storm Fionn + Storm with no name,tropospheric
baroclinic wave and associated fast moving surface low, and violent
storm force 11 in sea area Thames 18 Jan 2018
52 , Storm Georgina 23 Jan

So it did presage what became Storm Hector.
I've revisited the SST graphics of 1999,2008,2013,2014 storms that I
selected my Atlantic sampling patches from.
Slightly moved to reflect ,hopefully , the sistuation the week before
rather than nearest NOAA output to the event.
Also I'd arbitrarily decided to keep at least the longitude or the
latitude ,fixed, between each of the 3 pairs of sample squares, for the
consensus greatest range a week before those events, including Hector.

Was Hector really that notable?

THis was the view from where I was staying at Little Porth, Scilly early afternoon of 14th http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/14.html It had been breezy in the morning. At home in Penzance the maximum gust was 28mph.

There was a 3m swell at Sevenstones, but it need to be twice that to be notable, even in summer.

Even in northern England I can't see it was out of the ordinary. I know Ken reported a gale, but he does live in Copley!

I would be interested to here if anyone found it really notable. If so, it was only a small part of the UK.

Graham
Penzance
Penzance

Graham here's my analysis on Storm Hector:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!to...te/gT3zjNjiGuk

And if you want to see how windy it can get in June in the south look at this one:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!to...te/6nJZXHuYkOw

Thanks Bruce. I know John Chappells Lands End site has recorded 70mph in JUne, 80mph for the Fastnet Race disaster. This time just a bit blustery.

Here in Penzance 20 Junes since 1991 have seen stronger gusts. All the warnings certainly put the wind up the sailors on Scilly, so it made it nice & quiet for our final day walking the beaches.

Graham
Penzance