I see MetO has made a correction that now gives it 2.5mB per hour
deepening. Does the very act of being more energetic give it a more
eastward track? I note the met models originally had it going for
Portugal rather than consensus Pyrenes now. The Canadian model, outlier,
has it going much farther east before curving south-east, still keeping
it over Biscay, just.

In message , N_Cook
writes
I see MetO has made a correction that now gives it 2.5mB per hour
deepening. Does the very act of being more energetic give it a more
eastward track? I note the met models originally had it going for
Portugal rather than consensus Pyrenes now. The Canadian model,
outlier, has it going much farther east before curving south-east,
still keeping it over Biscay, just.

I recall reading that filling lows approaching the UK tend to veer away
to the left and so not cross the country. So being more energetic giving
a low a more eastward track would seem a plausible extension of that.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)

On Thursday, 22 March 2018 10:53:19 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook
writes
I see MetO has made a correction that now gives it 2.5mB per hour
deepening. Does the very act of being more energetic give it a more
eastward track? I note the met models originally had it going for
Portugal rather than consensus Pyrenes now. The Canadian model,
outlier, has it going much farther east before curving south-east,
still keeping it over Biscay, just.

I recall reading that filling lows approaching the UK tend to veer away
to the left and so not cross the country.
Hmmm - lows that don't develop tend to take a straighter trajectory, so I'm not sure I agree with this in the current scenario, where the jet is WNW'ly and to the southwest of the country, so that any additional development would see a track more likely to impact the UK.

So being more energetic giving
a low a more eastward track would seem a plausible extension of that.
This statement is correct with the current jet orientation and position.

--
Freddie

On 22/03/2018 10:49, John Hall wrote:
filling lows

meaning rising central pressure?
or typo? should that be falling lows?

GFS 12Z run is giving it a small short duration patch of sustained 80mph
wind,and upper-air vorticity off the public-available scaling, luckily
well off over the Atlantic at that point.

On Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 9:06:43 AM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
I see MetO has made a correction that now gives it 2.5mB per hour
deepening. Does the very act of being more energetic give it a more
eastward track? I note the met models originally had it going for
Portugal rather than consensus Pyrenes now. The Canadian model, outlier,
has it going much farther east before curving south-east, still keeping
it over Biscay, just.

Not a time to be crossing Biscay
https://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-.../1/?type=swell

Graham
Penzance

In message , N_Cook
writes
On 22/03/2018 10:49, John Hall wrote:
filling lows

meaning rising central pressure?
or typo? should that be falling lows?

Rising central pressure. Surely "filling" is the standard term for that?
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)

On 22/03/2018 17:36, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 9:06:43 AM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
I see MetO has made a correction that now gives it 2.5mB per hour
deepening. Does the very act of being more energetic give it a more
eastward track? I note the met models originally had it going for
Portugal rather than consensus Pyrenes now. The Canadian model, outlier,
has it going much farther east before curving south-east, still keeping
it over Biscay, just.

Not a time to be crossing Biscay
https://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-.../1/?type=swell

Graham
Penzance


My browser don't like that site, but NWW3 gives 12m significant wave
height under it.
Looks more like the track of a hurricane, doing a hand-brake turn in mid
Atlantic, running scared of entering the channel it seems.

The French WRF model puts closest approach to Lands End late this
evening, as the distance between Portland and Lands End, and then dives
off south, one to follow on the near-realtime synoptics.